Weather thread 2011

[devonhammer]

I did a double take when you posted that, but it's true

http://www.metcheck....p?zipcode=wells

[Late]

Now listen here.

Yes, the site is muddy today, but you seriously shouldn't underestimate the power of the sun to dry things up very quickly. It's actually quite surprising how quickly it can happen, especially when there isn't 130,000 people around. For example, remember the winter snows? It literally thawed out in a few hours when the cold-snap finished. And that was with a sun that is far lower on the horizon.

Bottom line - it might be muddy now, but it genuinely only requires a few hours of sun to dry it out completely. And that's especially the case when we've had "drought" conditions up to now.

[roseyrose]

Sorry, I underestimated. Metcheck were predicting 289 mph winds for today, so I doubt the farm will be there at all come tomorrow.

[tinselmouse]

another one here on the saide of metcheck is shite - consistently gets things wrong and there has been analysis done on said things.

anyway - on a positive note - the models are looking a little better for next week

[scorp]

If the charts stay as they are, there is *no* risk of heavy thundery downpours moving up from a hot and sultry continent,as there was in '05 and also i think '07. also, there is no likelihood of blazing summer weather, unless the high or its ridge moves in, which is possible for the festival weekend. the ridge might collapse over us [i think it will], but we shall see. if it does that, sun might be followed by some rain, possibly not too heavy, during or after the weekend. to summarise - the charts could look much worse than they currently do. note, tho, there is a low lurking top left of the final chart here:

http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/gfsx.php?inv=0&plot=hght&region=eu&t=9p

[MyTwistedWords]

some blue sky over worthy right about now

[devonhammer]

Is there anywhere that holds various weather sources to account?

i.e. keeps a record of predicted weather versus actual weather, for various terms of forecast, and munges that into some kind of metric of how well they did?

[eFestivals]

2) Don't mention Metcheck on a weather site. It's not well regarded. Latest post featuring the word "Metcheck" on Netweather:

Given that Netweather have been trying to get all the business from Metcheck it's hardly surprising that they slate them.

And at the point (last year was it? I can't remember) they contacted me to slate Metcheck and big up their own service I did a two week comparison of their forecasts.

The result? Metcheck was in the right ball park for all of the two weeks that was compared, while netweather's forecasts were as good as worthless.

Of course, that might just be the consequence of that particular two weeks, but every time I've looked at both since it's always been Metcheck which has been the more accurate.

[Guest blackcockerel]

I have to say Metcheck has hardly ever given the right forecast for me, for various places I've checked on

[The Nal]

Metcheck - "The request cannot be processed at this time. The amount of traffic exceeds the Web site's configured capacity."

[LoveDaRioja]

I'm not sure where these guys take their data from, but so far it's looking hopeful

http://uk.weather.com/weather/10day-Glastonbury-UKXX1641

[devonhammer]

Yes. The NOAA (makers of the GFS) hold this data. It's a nightmare to find it on their site, but here's a sample. Top graph is Northern Hemisphere, bottom is Southern. Higher scores are better. This is based on a five day forecast. It's also worth noting that GFS is 'mercan and is more accurate in the US of A. UKMO and ECM are more accurate in Europe.

[scorp]

TWO's 16 day forecast. Not bad, not bad at all, just a bit on the not too warm side. It's page 2 of TWO's 16 day forecast. If we get these blue skies the temp must get above 15 [59f]:

http://theweatheroutlook.co.uk/

I wonder if those temps are for 12 noon, or some kind of average.

Put in 'glastonbury' for the 16 day forecast, then go to page 2 of it.

NB, that forecast is updated every 6 hours.

Beneath that forecast, you will see: 'Switch to Specialist weather forecast to see more detailed forecast information.' click on the link in that for muuuuuuuch more detailed info. looks like things will perk up a lot after pre fest rain.

[tinselmouse]

I'm not sure where these guys take their data from, but so far it's looking hopeful

http://uk.weather.com/weather/10day-Glastonbury-UKXX1641

[The Nal]

Metcheck looking great by the way!!

[devonhammer]

Given that Netweather have been trying to get all the business from Metcheck it's hardly surprising that they slate them.

And at the point (last year was it? I can't remember) they contacted me to slate Metcheck and big up their own service I did a two week comparison of their forecasts.

The result? Metcheck was in the right ball park for all of the two weeks that was compared, while netweather's forecasts were as good as worthless.

Of course, that might just be the consequence of that particular two weeks, but every time I've looked at both since it's always been Metcheck which has been the more accurate.

[steviewevie]

I like that forecast. even where it says rain for this week its only 30/40 or occasionally 60% chance of rain. and from this i conclude that the site will be slightly damp underfoot but not that muddy when we all arrive and then it will be SCORCHIO!

right - on that positive note i am returning to dissertation writing with a happy face.

[Wooderson]

Metcheck looking great by the way!!

[eFestivals]

I'm not going to argue the merits of a paedophile's weather service any more. That fact alone is enough.

ahhh, right - so you base your opinion on the accuracy of weather forecasting services on the fact that someone is alleged to be a paedo.

Smart going smart boy.

I think your time might be better spent analysing your own logic than weather forecasts.

Edited June 13, 2011 by eFestivals

[Lentus]

I get butterflies in my stomach every time I come on this thread, its not healthy. Although on a better note I was pooed on two weekends in a row by a pigeon this is one reason why the weather is getting better.

Lets have some more sacrifices and more of buying wet weather gear people. NFR NFC!!

[neil999]

ahhh, right - so you base your opinion on the accuracy of weather forecasting services on the fact that someone is alleged to be a paedo.

Smart going smart boy.

I think your time might be better spent analysing your own logic than weather forecasts.

[devonhammer]

ahhh, right - so you base your opinion on the accuracy of weather forecasting services on the fact that someone is alleged to be a paedo.

Smart going smart boy.

I think your time might be better spent analysing your own logic than weather forecasts.

[devonhammer]

I base my opinion on the accuracy based on studies of the accuracy of weather forecasters.

[The Nal]

If there's a general opinion that my links to forecast sites and explanations of meteorology are unwanted then I'll stop. As they are generally praised at the moment then I'll carry on.

[eFestivals]

ummm, metcheck has been predicting 200mph winds, i think that might be one of the reasons people dont quite trust it!

that's one of the parts I don't look at - I look ast the dates and times, the amount of rainfall, and pretty pictures of what the weather is going to do. Invariably, they're more right than any other weather forecasting service I've compared them with.

I'm not trying to 'force' anyone to use them, I'm simply giving my experience.