General Election 2015

[eFestivals]

That graph is just wrong...there has never been a year with a population growth of 900000. The trend is right but 2012 was 420000.

and much of then population growth isn't from immigration anyway.

Even if we'd have had no net immigration, the population would have still sky-rocketed via the huge increase in oldies and the 'baby booomers'.

Everything about this coming population increase has been known for over 50 years, and no govt has done fuck all to address it.

The immigration part of the population increase is a minor factor in the scheme of things.

[lost]

That graph is just wrong...there has never been a year with a population growth of 900000. The trend is right but 2012 was 420000.

ok but illustrates the trend between house building and population change which is the point I was trying to get across.

[eFestivals]

Ok lets talk indisputable facts like say the halifax house prices to earnings ratio which was at 2.7 times income or my girlfriend at the time buying a 1 bed cottage for £25k on an order pickers salary. I've many friends who made it onto the property ladder in the mid-90's on unskilled wages.. honestly you don't know what your talking about.

I'm forgetting you're a northerner, and I'm not. My apologies, tho you're guilty of having made the same error in your own claims.

Wages have tended to be about-equal around the country, while the cost of property in relation to those wages hasn't been. So it might well be the case that up north house-buying was within reach of a single unskilled wage; it wasn't in the south east, not since before the early 80s.

The trend that I outlined remains true. Houses only stayed within reach of someone at a wages level that enabled them to buy a house via an increase in the mortgage multiple - which had reached 5 times before 2002, before immigration became an issue for some.

(PS: I committed mortgage fraud to be able to afford to buy my first house in 1988 - cos mortgage fraud was the only way it was possible to do it, because my skilled-&-qualified-worker wages wouldn't stretch to a house via the official mortgage multiple!)

Govt control house prices via the amount of land they release for housing via national housing plans. So whose fault are house prices?

Edited March 12, 2015 by eFestivals

[lost]

Govt control house prices via the amount of land they release for housing via national housing plans. So whose fault are house prices?

Oh I'd agree the governments which is why as I mentioned we need more land released and more houses to be built.

[eFestivals]

Oh I'd agree the governments which is why as I mentioned we need more land released and more houses to be built.

so there you go - everything about the impact of immigration can be managed by the govt, if the govt deems doing it worthwhile.

The problems that have hit us in more recent years are because we've been building too few houses for DECADES, not just the last decade. The issue is the caused by the housing policies of the govts we've elected, and very little else.

Edited March 12, 2015 by eFestivals

[lost]

so there you go - everything about the impact of immigration can be managed by the govt, if the govt deems doing it worthwhile.

The problems that have hit us in more recent years are because we've been building too few houses for DECADES, not just the last decade. The issue is the caused by the housing policies of the govts we've elected, and very little else.

Yes thats exactly what I said in my first post and that some people will rather limit immigration over seeing their housing value fall (sometimes I think you just like arguing without actually reading whats been written?)

[eFestivals]

Yes thats exactly what I said in my first post and that some people will rather limit immigration over seeing their housing value fall (sometimes I think you just like arguing without actually reading whats been written?)

house values don't have to fall, tho it would be a fantastic idea if people would like their own kids to have a house.

And why should we lock-in those rises which should never have happened, and which has fucked up our economy? If we make that choice, we're choosing to never fix the country's problems.

Just because some people have got rich via a planned and continuing robbery doesn't mean that the only answer is to legalise robbery.

And just because others perhaps joined the robbery too late to benefit doesn't mean that robbery should be legalised so that they do benefit.

The problem is the robbery. We need to end the robbery, not decide to continue with it.

People with on-paper profits have to lose their profits thru devaluation. People who haven't made profits will have to take their real-loss on the chin (and I'll be one of those if my hopes come true, I'll just point out).

Anything else just allows the fuck up to become entrenched. Ending immigration will deal with nothing of that fuck-up.

Edited March 12, 2015 by eFestivals

[eFestivals]

Oh I'd agree the governments which is why as I mentioned we need more land released and more houses to be built.

Mostly I'm seeing a mis-claim of when the problems with housing started, and a graph about immigration that seemed to be trying to suggest the housing problems are a result of immigration.

Edited March 12, 2015 by eFestivals

[krisskross]

ok but illustrates the trend between house building and population change which is the point I was trying to get across.

True, 2000 is pretty much the tipping point where pop growth really starts to grow compared to housing.

[kaosmark2]

I think Barry has got lost and confused, he thinks he's turned left but he actually veered heavily to the right.

Again.

[eFestivals]

True, 2000 is pretty much the tipping point where pop growth really starts to grow compared to housing.

and it's worth pointing out that was before any "EU open borders", which didn't happen until later.

The UK is the world's 8th largest exporter of population - the highest exporter of population in Europe. Why is it that it's fine for UK citizens to emigrate, but not for others if they're coming to the UK?

And the UK's population exchange with the EU is about balanced, in a one-in-one-out sort of way.

Meanwhile, it's non-EU immigration that has exploded in the last decade, and is the major cause of the population increase. If the UK needs to act against immigration then it's surely right that we act against the part that is unbalanced rather than balanced.

[lost]

Mostly I'm seeing a mis-claim of when the problems with housing started, and a graph about immigration that seemed to be trying to suggest the housing problems are a result of immigration.

Ok here is the prices to incomes I was on about with no immigration figures:

As you can see they started off at around 3.5 average incomes we then had a bubble on the back of Lawson ending MIRAS. After it burst they spend most of the nineties under 3.5 times average incomes and then start to really rise around 2002. Obviously the sharp drop in interest rates was also a factor but I don't think its controversial to say when the population of the UK starting increasing at a greater rate then housing became more expensive.

Edited March 12, 2015 by lost

[eFestivals]

PS - some EU rules are still fruitcake-land.

One of my bruv's works in Germany about half the time, which resulted in him getting a German girlfriend. Last year they decided to get married.

And it was easier - in fact, the ONLY practical way (without needing one of them to give up their job) - for them to both fly to the USA and get married there than it was for them to get married in either Germany or the UK.

But we need bigger barriers with the EU, yeah?

[eFestivals]

Ok here is the prices to incomes I was on about with no immigration figures:

As you can see they started off at around 3.5 average incomes we then had a bubble on the back of Lawson ending MIRAS. After it burst they spend most of the nineties under 3.5 times average incomes and then start to rise around 2002. I don't think its controversial to say when the population of the UK starting increasing at a greater rate then housing became more expensive.

That graph shows a MUCH bigger relationship between a booming economy and high prices than it does anything to do with immigration.

[lost]

That graph shows a MUCH bigger relationship between a booming economy and high prices than it does anything to do with immigration.

Nah growth was higher in the 80's than 2000's also the recession in 2008 was greater but prices fell less. Again I mentioned interest rates I didn't say it was the only factor but demand seems to have put a floor under the falls this time.

Edited March 12, 2015 by lost

[eFestivals]

Nah growth was higher in the 80's than 2000's also the recession in 2008 was greater but prices fell less. Again I mentioned interest rates I didn't say it was the only factor but demand seems to have put a floor under the falls this time.

It depends what "growth" you look at. Here's betting that growth with house price inflation (fake "growth"!) removed would show the relationship better.

And I'd say that mega-low interest rates are what's put the floor under prices this time. The affordable wages multiple is related to interest rates is related to house prices.

And our economy is only 'booming' now because a house price bubble that Gideon cooked up with HTB and the like - price supports for the housing market.

Edited March 12, 2015 by eFestivals

[lost]

It depends what "growth" you look at. Here's betting that growth with house price inflation (fake "growth"!) removed would show the relationship better.

And I'd say that mega-low interest rates are what's put the floor under prices this time. The affordable wages multiple is related to interest rates is related to house prices.

And our economy is only 'booming' now because a house price bubble that Gideon cooked up with HTB and the like - price supports for the housing market.

yep as I mentioned interest rates are a factor but there is definitely a higher demand there that wasn't in the 90's fall

[eFestivals]

yep as I mentioned interest rates are a factor but there is definitely a higher demand there that wasn't in the 90's fall

at the moment, that "higher demand" is really "lower supply", and not particularly because of the small number of houses being built, but because people aren't selling to move because they won't get a new mortgage because of changes in mortgage criteria.

I was damned lucky with getting my own mortgage 3.5 years ago. If I'd gone to buy just 6 months later I wouldn't have got one because of the changes in criteria - and at that time few people were selling up because prices were at their crashed-bottom.

Edited March 12, 2015 by eFestivals

[eFestivals]

Back that up

you think racist employment policies would be a good thing.

Care to tell me how that's not right wing nutjob land?

[lost]

at the moment, that "higher demand" is really "lower supply", and not particularly because of the small number of houses being built, but because people aren't selling to move because they won't get a new mortgage because of changes in mortgage criteria.

I was damned lucky with getting my own mortgage 3.5 years ago. If I'd gone to buy just 6 months later I wouldn't have got one because of the changes in criteria - and at that time few people were selling up because prices were at their crashed-bottom.

But if house building was keeping up with demand people would not need to put supply on the market you've also got to remember a certain amount will always come up due to death divorce and debt.

I'd still stand by the points I'd made if you went back and watched some of the 1990's sitcoms like say men behaving badly, game on, this life etc.. I'd say they are pretty representative of the types of accommodation people could either afford to buy or rent at the time doing those jobs now if you watch something like eastenders or any of those were made today I'd say that's completely unrealistic.

Edited March 12, 2015 by lost

[kaosmark2]

Back that up

OK:

I am though grown up enough to recognise that discriminating against someone on the ground of nationality is different than discriminating against someone based on the race.

That is national discrimination and its not bigoted or racist if applied equally in this manner.

The idea isn't to allow a company to list nationalities. But to just prioritise one... Britain....

[eFestivals]

At what point did I say x policy would be a good idea ?

when you thought enough good things about them to post about them without criticism, and then got upset when your posts were rightly criticised.

If you don't think they're a good idea you can say it, go on....?

[kaosmark2]

So talking about someone elses ideas is all it takes ok

Stating that nationalist discrimination is acceptable, not bigoted is what it takes.

[LJS]

Stating that nationalist discrimination is acceptable, not bigoted is what it takes.

I was wondering if under "Barry's Law" Scots employers could exclude English applicants? Just a thought.

...meanwhile in other news, I see the Tories are promising us "Unlimited Benefits" if we vote in a Lab/SNP government. Great we can all jack in our jobs & live in the lap of luxury!!!

Edited March 12, 2015 by LJS

[eFestivals]

My main response to this is on the dirtindy thread .....

and that "main response" is a link to a vacuous blog that completely ignores the fact of Scotland's fucked finances.

Still, in better news Scotland is set for new boom, as the world's scientists relocate to Scotland as they've just realised the laws of physics don't apply there as well as the laws of economics, or any facts at all.