Weather thread 2011

[muddyslingbax]

[JoeyT]

I don't think the latest model looks too bad if i'm honest.

[muddyslingbax]

Mr Slingbax is a proper veteran of Glastonbury; remembers when it was all fields

He believes that despite the media slant on it being a mud filled event each year, on avereage, Glasto is actually a dry festival and we should keep that in mind

[sparkythetortoise]

Bollocks - Latest Met Office view

UK Outlook for Thursday 23 Jun 2011 to Thursday 7 Jul 2011:

The south should see more in the way of drier and brighter conditions but there is still a chance of a little rain at times. Temperatures are likely to remain close to average in most areas. However, some southern and eastern parts of the UK may continue to see above average temperatures at times.

Updated: 1214 on Wed 8 Jun 2011

[muddyslingbax]

Glastonbury is surely more South than West - cut out all the irrelevant stuff and this surely doesn't read too bad. What am I missing?

[Spindles]

Mr Slingbax is a proper veteran of Glastonbury; remembers when it was all fields

He believes that despite the media slant on it being a mud filled event each year, on avereage, Glasto is actually a dry festival and we should keep that in mind

[muddyslingbax]

This.

Historically it is one of the driest weekends of the year, a fact that ME is explaining on the news every time it isn't.

People are too quick to worry round here, have some faith, it will be fine. Fine and dry.

[JoeyT]

The outcomes of these models each time generally determine which mood i'm in so I haven't been the greatest of company recently :angry:

[devonhammer]

NFR NFC

While we are enjoying the heatwave be sure to spare a thought for Herr Bär.

[Spindles]

Points for you sir. Don't tell russy.

[devonhammer]

JackOne: On this scale of 0=dustbowl and 10=washout I would so for a 6, there has been consistent signs that the festival is likely to see some rain, probably falling short of a washout, and there is still time for things to change

GFS: Very wet

GFS Ensemble: Doesn't seem to be updating. I'll try to find another source (Wetterzentrale if I can translate it)

Met Office: Rain(not a true daily update yet)

TWO: Rain

PositiveWeather Solutions: Dry with showers (not a daily update)

ECM: Not yet inrange

Norwegians: Notyet in range

Meteo: Not yet inrange

[Churchills Mohican]

I'm beginning to become quite fond of that sad frog, having seen it rather often lately. His bad weather can chuff off though.

Plenty of time for it all to change....... I hope.... 

[devonhammer]

You're right with that last sentence.

Right now I'm nowhere near as optimistic (yet!) as devonhammer, and I've seen a few of the same charts as he has.

That the chart he posted will happen is still far too far ahead to be any kind of reliable thing -- I'm saeeing a fair few badly contrary signals in other models.

Lets hope my long term fears get stuffed into unreality much more comprehnsively that devon's longterm hopes.

But I'm in pretty negative mood today (sorry, hope you don't mind me venting)-- probably irrationally downhearted but!

Right now in South Wales we're getting lots of horrible chilliness and heavy/frequent showers and SOME people on the Netweather chat forums fear (even predict, atm) that these conditions will continue for a while ....

[Mr Ploppy]

The thing about this weather currently though, as I have said before is its so changeable.

Right now above me is plenty of blue sky and some unthreatening white cloud, but this has all appeared in the time in took me to go into the kitchen, pick out 2 oranges, cut them up and eat them.

So about 10-12 minutes ago there were quite dark clouds and rain - now its sunny and looking good.

Whatever the forcasts tell us in the next week it all seems just so instantly changeable away.

Edited June 9, 2011 by Mr Ploppy

[Mr Weazle]

The thing about this weather currently though, as I have said before is its so changeable.

Right now above me is plenty of blue sky and some unthreatening white cloud, but this has all appeared in the time in took me to go into the kitchen, pick out 2 oranges, cut them up and eat them.

So about 10-12 minutes ago there were quite dark clouds and rain - now its sunny and looking good.

Whatever the forcasts tell us in the next week it all seems just so instantly changeable away.

[devonhammer]

Right, I'm searching for some good news. The GFS ensembles don't seem to be updating on NetWeather, so I've had a look at Wetterzentrale and managed to find ensemble maps (the site is badly designed and in German, so if this is actually an original Warhol painting I apologise). Ensembles are runs based on slightly different base conditions. You can get a good idea of the likelihood of an accurate forecast if the ensembles agree. From this it appears that number 19 is the most accurate run:

[tinselmouse]

Mr Slingbax is a proper veteran of Glastonbury; remembers when it was all fields

He believes that despite the media slant on it being a mud filled event each year, on avereage, Glasto is actually a dry festival and we should keep that in mind

[Bubblepopelectric]

[Alcatraz]

Right, I'm searching for some good news. The GFS ensembles don't seem to be updating on NetWeather, so I've had a look at Wetterzentrale and managed to find ensemble maps (the site is badly designed and in German, so if this is actually an original Warhol painting I apologise). Ensembles are runs based on slightly different base conditions. You can get a good idea of the likelihood of an accurate forecast if the ensembles agree. From this it appears that number 19 is the most accurate run:

[muddyslingbax]

After a slight freak out this morning I feel reassured by this. It is going to be hot and sunny. I'm not going to accept anything else.

[muddyslingbax]

[Party-'Scatter'!]

19 is my new favorite number!

[Alcatraz]

19 is my new favorite number!

[Taikonaut]

Lol @ the fella with Monkey as his avatar in this thread, such dedication. Fantastic.

If it rains it's only certain peoples fault. The people who have already bought sunscreen! You know who you are, you've ruined it!

We should all have agreed to buy expensive wellies, then we'd never have to use them.

[One Tonne Baby]

If it rains it rains, get over it.