Jump to content

Don't Miss a Beat

Join the UK's most passionate festival community. Keep up with the latest conversations, line-up rumours, and music news.

250,000+ Members

Connect with a massive network of fellow festival-goers.

Lively Discussions

Thousands of active topics on music, campsites, and tips.

Hot Rumours & News

Hear about secret sets and lineup drops before anyone else.

Create Free Account
OR
  • Sign Up!

    Join our friendly community of music lovers and be part of the fun 😎

Weather thread 2010


Guest remote

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 3.3k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

From TNM news.....

and I quote....

“We can’t be too particular at this early stage and won’t have a more detailed forecast until Monday (21 June). However, it has been predominantly dry in Somerset and this is good news for campers as even if it rains during the festival, the ground will be dry.”
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I expect it's more likely that he's summoned him over to ask WTF he's doing with our weather. Or maybe to celebrate the anniversary of Waterloo? Or perhaps to watch yesterday's coverage of the Mexico game?

Edited by fowls
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Long time viewer (of this thread!), first time writer.

The only thing I've learnt is that nobody can predict the weather accurately further than a very few days out (and even then it's liable to change ad hoc). The weather is too capricious a beast for even the most super of super computers, and modelling too liable to being skewed by even slight errors in data, which serve only to amplify the error.

And I'm an economist so I know what a load of old arse any models are the further out they go. Should know better really than to join in the daily highs and lows on here (no pun intended) as we get good news/bad news on a constantly changing basis

Think I'll do my heart a favour and stay away and tune back in Tuesday pm to have a late packing change if necessary! To me that's the only reliable time scale that we can get.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Long time viewer (of this thread!), first time writer.

The only thing I've learnt is that nobody can predict the weather accurately further than a very few days out (and even then it's liable to change ad hoc). The weather is too capricious a beast for even the most super of super computers, and modelling too liable to being skewed by even slight errors in data, which serve only to amplify the error.

And I'm an economist so I know what a load of old arse any models are the further out they go. Should know better really than to join in the daily highs and lows on here (no pun intended) as we get good news/bad news on a constantly changing basis

Think I'll do my heart a favour and stay away and tune back in Tuesday pm to have a late packing change if necessary! To me that's the only reliable time scale that we can get.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I agree with you. Total bullshit. If it rains it turns into a mudbath within 30 minutes. Anyone remember Sunday night at about 1am last year? Started raining, very heavy mind you, and by the time I got back to my tent in Michaels Mead from the Stone circle, the place was a washout. A disaster like.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Didn't exactlly the same thing happen last year?

We all got excited cause it was going to be glorious (German) then we all got depressed cause JackOne said it was going to be arse(French).

But when we got there it was Mostly German and the French just popped in for a couple of hours to say "Zut Allores" Then buggered off again, when the germans invaded for the rest of the Festival.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Didn't exactlly the same thing happen last year?

We all got excited cause it was going to be glorious (German) then we all got depressed cause JackOne said it was going to be arse(French).

But when we got there it was Mostly German and the French just popped in for a couple of hours to say "Zut Allores" Then buggered off again, when the germans invaded for the rest of the Festival.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

while i understand its fickle and always changing what i dont understand is how it ALL changes constantly

and not that the picture gradually gets clearer

eg yesterday - weds is ok

today - no its not

tomoz - ah its fine actually

id have thought each day would clear up as it went along. and i just dont get how the different predictors differ so much

its a bit like i want to decide who to bet on tonight

ill ask a load of sports pundits

then ill ask my bloody mother

and give them equal gravitas

Link to comment
Share on other sites

while i understand its fickle and always changing what i dont understand is how it ALL changes constantly

and not that the picture gradually gets clearer

eg yesterday - weds is ok

today - no its not

tomoz - ah its fine actually

id have thought each day would clear up as it went along. and i just dont get how the different predictors differ so much

its a bit like i want to decide who to bet on tonight

ill ask a load of sports pundits

then ill ask my bloody mother

and give them equal gravitas

Edited by devonhammer
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm going to do some work, but I'll leave you with this latest update:

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?MENU=Week-ahead (note this is probably GFS data)

Warm and dry start but possibly downhill just in time from Friday. We need the Met Office to bring us hope later, otherwise it looks like we may, and I stress, may be in trouble, bloody Low pressure, talk about timing an arrival to perfection, you couldn't make it up! :angry:

Edited by jezzer
Link to comment
Share on other sites

How it works is that you predict the weather for, lets say, an hours time. This will be pretty accurate, but even then the precise temperature, pressure, precipitation etc could be slightly out. The next prediction is based on that one and so on and so on until you get out to the festival.

If the first prediction is even slightly out then the next run has a new, different starting point and therefore, by the time you've got a weeks worth of predictions, potentially a very different outcome. This is where ensembles come in. There are several ways of doing ensembles and I'm not sure what GFS do, but one way is to say that in an hour there is a 60% chance of outcome A and a 40% chance of outcome B. An ensemble would run both the A and the B (and probably C, D, E, F etc).

[EDIT] This is why you can't predict the weather except in very general terms for more than a few days.

As with everything I put on here, my knowledge is 20 yrs out of date and that's if I remember it right.

The equal gravitas bit is a good point. Based on Netweather forums we should trust the Met Office (and therefore BBC) and ECM more than the GFS. The problem is that the GFS isn't just your mother, but the 20 friends she chats to (Doris Accuweather, Hilda Metcheck etc).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think I may have done something bad. someone who I work with and is going to Glasto started chatting about next week. They came at me with this statement

"well as long as it doesn't R--- when I put my tent up I don't mind for the rest of the time"

I the punched her hard in the face and threw her down the stairs.

Did I do wrong?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think I may have done something bad. someone who I work with and is going to Glasto started chatting about next week. They came at me with this statement

"well as long as it doesn't R--- when I put my tent up I don't mind for the rest of the time"

I the punched her hard in the face and threw her down the stairs.

Did I do wrong?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think I may have done something bad. someone who I work with and is going to Glasto started chatting about next week. They came at me with this statement

"well as long as it doesn't R--- when I put my tent up I don't mind for the rest of the time"

I the punched her hard in the face and threw her down the stairs.

Did I do wrong?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

  • Latest Activity

    • Another note, if I didn't mention the food in the arena for main stage is right at the back. Bands wise they do very well for but as a festival so far they pros are outweighed quite heavily currently for me.
    • On another note for RIP as an event, there is some good things but there are so many things people going to UK festivals would hate and how far behind they are.  Consistent network and water, beer and pretzel like food is brought around to buy in the crowds. Topping up on the wristband is good. The camping and food arrangement is not good, you really need cooking kit. Water points inside the arena are bonkers, water points in camping are a faff unless you are close enough in general camp. Merch stands are crazy. You MASSIVELY need to think about your lidl shop for camping and try and do it so you've one stop. It's definitely worth it getting to a camping shop here, picking up a rolley between your mates and stacking it for the walk back....lidl is cheap though, not hard getting in but Thursday queues getting in and into the camping is mad. You have to register first for a wristband as well leaving any bigger bags behind so pull to a side if only two and do it separately. I was joining a WhatsApp group for solo camp so went with the flow but I've learnt. Had it been me or just two my tent would have been down much quicker.  Big final note, I got a fresh and black 3 man from decathlon before coming and put in bigger suitcase with my airbed and sleeping bag...do this. Take a smaller option for your clothes. If you go to Munich first, book your train to Nuremberg as far in advance as you can....very important!....it hikes crazy. Probably bettee overall for baggage sizes to do BA both ways but you do then need to go back to Munich after too. Use the B&B hotel hbf the night before....its very nice, comfortable, cheap and within 10 minutes of the station which also serves as a transport stop 15 minutes from the registration.  Get up literally like 5am with everything back the night before, shower and go. Transport is free anyway for festival ticket holders during the duration.  Would I just choose to travel in each day and back to a hotel?, on the basis of sleep and getting accommodation cheap enough for 3 nights i might just do especially if I picked the ticket up early enough. It doesn't feel like a festival in a normal sense....unless you are in general yoi have to exit on the paths outside the camping to walk down and in which also applies for getting water so have a stock up. Toilets are in the camping.
    • Yup and they aren't cheap   Glastonbury is different though, it's a place that will pack out for rarities they don't usually see. Download strictly speaking shouldn't be the strangest place for Avril to pop up of she had been a touring artist of longer times over the years.   Avril and GC would get the same billing for me and GC are selling arenas out quicker than Avril sold Ally Pally. Bearing in mind she'd pnly done soem Brixton dates before.
    • Avril gets above GC on rarity (see Cypress Hill this year). She drew in something like 70,000 at Glastonbury, so much so that they had to close the field off. I’d wager that she would get the biggest crowd of the entire weekend if she was to play DL. 
  • Featured Products

  • Hot Topics

  • Latest Tourdates

×
×
  • Create New...