UK Politics

[Ommadawn]

3 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Sky's projection...

 

Not quite a landslide then.

[Ozanne]

5 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Sky's projection...

You can’t really project results for a local election where only a select few areas are up for election onto a general election.

Lab won the WM by-election today with a 26% swing in-line with polls. 

[steviewevie]

14 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

You can’t really project results for a local election where only a select few areas are up for election onto a general election.

Lab won the WM by-election today with a 26% swing in-line with polls. 

 

well, it's a projection, not a prediction.

[steviewevie]

London mayoral election latest...what has got the Khan team spooked is turnout in areas that would normally be voting Khan/Labour have a much lower turnout than the outer London lot who are all angry about ulez and more likely to vote Hall/Tory. So, it might actually happen which would be bad for Labour, bad for London, and bad for Green policies going forward.

[steviewevie]

1 minute ago, steviewevie said:

London mayoral election latest...what has got the Khan team spooked is turnout in areas that would normally be voting Khan/Labour have a much lower turnout than the outer London lot who are all angry about ulez and more likely to vote Hall/Tory. So, it might actually happen which would be bad for Labour, bad for London, and bad for Green policies going forward.

so it could be a mix of apathy, FPTP, voter ID and a profound dislike of Khan/ULEZ which could do it for Khan.

(but I bet he still wins, but might be tight).

[Ozanne]

6 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

 

well, it's a projection, not a prediction.

Yes and you can’t really project local election results onto a general election. It’s best to compare against other locals. 

[Nobody Interesting]

1 minute ago, Ozanne said:

Yes and you can’t really project local election results onto a general election. It’s best to compare against other locals. 

 

and as you have been at pains to say in the recent past, you can't use by-election results either............................. yet you do when it suits you LOL

[steviewevie]

1 minute ago, steviewevie said:

so it could be a mix of apathy, FPTP, voter ID and a profound dislike of Khan/ULEZ which could do it for Khan.

(but I bet he still wins, but might be tight).

 

and people voting for binface for the lols because Khan had a 20 point lead in the polls. 

[steviewevie]

12 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

 

and people voting for binface for the lols because Khan had a 20 point lead in the polls. 

and if Hall does win (or it's close) the take away will be don't ever assume polls are right, if you actually want the tories out, despite Labour's failings, vote and vote tactically...which might mean not voting for your first choice. If you just want to hurt Starmer  and would be nonplussed by Tories staying in power as long as Labour lose...then go ahead, fill your boots...it's the same with in the US and those who can't vote for Biden...enjoy Trump.

Edited May 3 by steviewevie

[Ozanne]

 

[steviewevie]

 

[Ozanne]

4 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

 

It would be classic Sunak for him to jump on this and base his next rebrand over it. 

[Crazyfool01]

30 minutes ago, Nobody Interesting said:

 

and as you have been at pains to say in the recent past, you can't use by-election results either............................. yet you do when it suits you LOL

All the by elections have been positive for Labour … not sure I’ve seen Ozanne say this . Can you quote an example ? 

[steviewevie]

12 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

It would be classic Sunak for him to jump on this and base his next rebrand over it. 

it does look like Sunak will be leader and PM leading into the next election, and that election will likely be in the autumn, probably November.

[lazyred]

31 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

 

 

The PNS in 1995 had Labour at 46 instead of 34 today. So 21 points ahead of Tories compared to 9 today. 

https://labourlist.org/2024/05/local-elections-results-2024-bbc-national-share-labour-tories/

 

 

[steviewevie]

14 minutes ago, Crazyfool01 said:

All the by elections have been positive for Labour … not sure I’ve seen Ozanne say this . Can you quote an example ? 

 

don't ask him for evidence, he gets all angsty.

(sorry should have used them/they there)

[steviewevie]

1 minute ago, lazyred said:

 

The PNS in 1995 had Labour at 46 instead of 34 today. So 21 points ahead of Tories compared to 9 today. 

https://labourlist.org/2024/05/local-elections-results-2024-bbc-national-share-labour-tories/

 

 

 

and it just goes to show how much  Labour need to do to win just a one seat majority...which may excite the starmer haters novara media lovies but in the end will likely mean a hung parliament that doesn't get anything done and so another election with Tories winning with Patel/Badenoch/Johnson/Farage in charge and a country that goes even further to the right.

[Nobody Interesting]

24 minutes ago, Crazyfool01 said:

All the by elections have been positive for Labour … not sure I’ve seen Ozanne say this . Can you quote an example ? 

Oh sorry, for a moment I thought I was steviewevie who is allowed to make comments and not provide proof LOL

Go back through the pages on this thread, there are examples a plenty of them saying you cannot use byelections to predict the general election. You will certainly fin d examples when Galloway won the by election.

Edited May 3 by Nobody Interesting

[steviewevie]

and before any c**t calls me a centristy liberal c**t I was saying the same sh*t in 2019 when people didn't want Boris Johnson or brexit but couldn't vote Labour because of Corbyn...stop being so f**king idealist ffs.

[steviewevie]

1 minute ago, Nobody Interesting said:

Oh sorry, for a moment I thought I was steviewevie who is allowed to make comments and not provide proof LOL

Go back through the pages on this thread, there are examples a plenty of them saying you cannot use byelections to predict the general election.

 

LOL. You're funny. How about you provide the evidence to back up your shite for once.

[Crazyfool01]

5 minutes ago, Nobody Interesting said:

Oh sorry, for a moment I thought I was steviewevie who is allowed to make comments and not provide proof LOL

Go back through the pages on this thread, there are examples a plenty of them saying you cannot use byelections to predict the general election. You will certainly fin d examples when Galloway won the by election.

I’ve been reading and can’t find any . That’s why I asked . Gaza I would say is a good example of where other issues have come into play . He’d not be an mp otherwise . I’m not always In agreement with the posts but think it’s fair if you suggest something’s been said then you ( anyone ) is able to find said post . 

[steviewevie]

 

[Neil]

5 hours ago, fraybentos1 said:

what have I lied about exactly?

What did you make up that you posted.if you're not aware of your lying habits you're a bit lacking in awareness.

[steviewevie]

2 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

 

 

overall though Labour have done well in Manchester...even gained a seat from Green in nearby Hulme. Won easily where I am, only 35% turnout though...there was a workers party candidate who came 3rd after Greens...

[steviewevie]