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When will this shit end?


Chrisp1986

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22 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

 

But you need to be careful because this constant doubting of the vaccine efficacy is not going to have the effect you think it is. People on the fence will just simply not get it, and things will get worse.  Think more widely about the talking points you’re pushing.

I'm not pushing anything Matt. I just don't think you understand how vaccines work. I've literally said umpteen times that they will end this and work excellently at preventing the worst outcomes, I don't know how much clearer I can be, but there's no agenda and no attempt to shift any narrative. It's no different to anything I said over a year ago before we even had approved vaccines to use (and no different to what most scientists would have said). You are looking for something here where there isn't anything. Without the vaccines, the current infection rate would already have a 10 fold amount of people in hospital and many more dying. They have pushed the CFR here down towards something we live with every year (it'd be lovely if they eliminated it entirely, but that's not realistic unfortunately), there's no anti-vax nonsense in this, there's no vaccine denialism, just a basic understanding of how they work. The data repeatedly shows that they are exceptionally effective at preventing the things we want them to prevent. If understanding how things work stops people on the fence from taking a safe and efficacious vaccine, then I'm not sure what to say. Better to lie to them and dupe them into getting it? Of course not. There is still sensationalism in some of the reporting (and politicians declaring things over when they clearly aren't yet doesn't help either), but accurately describing the effectiveness of the vaccines is not part of any misinformation campaign. 

Edited by Toilet Duck
stoopid autocorrect!
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3 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

I'm not pushing anything Matt. I just don't think you understand how vaccines work. I've literally said umpteen times that they will end this and work excellently at preventing the worst outcomes, I don't know how much clearer I can be, but there's no agenda and no attempt to shift any narrative. It's no different to anything I said over a year ago before we even had approved vaccines to use (and no different to what most scientists would have said). You are looking for something here where there isn't anything. Without the vaccines, the current infection rate would already have a 10 fold amount of people in hospital and many more dying. They have pushed the CFR here down towards something we live with every year (it'd be lovely if they eliminated it entirely, but that's not realistic unfortunately), there's no anti-vax nonsense in this, there's no vaccine denialism, just a basic understanding of how they work. The data repeatedly shows that they are exceptionally effective at preventing the things we want them to prevent. If understanding how things work stops people on the fence from taking a safe and efficacious vaccine, then I'm not sure what to say. Better to lie to them and dupe them into getting it? Of course not. There is still sensationalism in some of the reporting (and politicians declaring things over when they clearly aren't yet doesn't help either), but accurately describing the effectiveness of the vaccines is not part of any misinformation campaign. 

are there any vaccines that are 100% effective? I'm guessing not.

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Just now, steviewevie said:

are there any vaccines that are 100% effective? I'm guessing not.

The measles ones is pretty good. But measles doesn't have the same range of animal reservoirs for it to hide in until the immunity wanes (it doesn't for a very long time). The polio one is also good enough to eradicate the disease and we really should have by now. The smallpox one worked a treat! 

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12 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

 

But you need to be careful because this constant doubting of the vaccine efficacy is not going to have the effect you think it is. People on the fence will just simply not get it, and things will get worse.  Think more widely about the talking points you’re pushing.

Completely disagree with you, very strongly. Your reply has actually annoyed me.

If I can’t ask about the vaccines effects on transmission, and whether we should change our assumptions or not based on new “data” (I use the term very very loosely here), then what’s the point of a thread titled “when will this shit end?”

Whatever 2+2=5 assumptions you’ve made on why I asked that question, you can keep them in your own head.

I even addressed my question to the expert on the thread, who as always gave a very clear, helpful answer. I value his input, and even if he’s reiterating points raised previously, the repetition helps me (and I assume others) learn. Very science, ay. 

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I honestly don't know what is the actual point in getting the vaccines if you are younger.  Its pretty clear it isn't really a route to anything other than the same shit we have been doing over the last 15 months.

Unless you are scared of the 0.00005 chance of getting seriously ill from it even without the vaccine.  Then I could understand.

But the vaccine was sold as a passport to freedom and our lives back.  Monday looks shit.

Edited by Barry Fish
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2 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

The measles ones is pretty good. But measles doesn't have the same range of animal reservoirs for it to hide in until the immunity wanes (it doesn't for a very long time). The polio one is also good enough to eradicate the disease and we really should have by now. The smallpox one worked a treat! 

ok...this is where I get effectiveness and efficacy mixed up. Would these vaccines have had 100% efficacy? Or would they have been high enough to be able to get these illnesses to very low levels or even eradicate them (i.e. 100% effective)?

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6 minutes ago, Radiochicken said:

Completely disagree with you, very strongly. Your reply has actually annoyed me.

If I can’t ask about the vaccines effects on transmission, and whether we should change our assumptions or not based on new “data” (I use the term very very loosely here), then what’s the point of a thread titled “when will this shit end?”

Whatever 2+2=5 assumptions you’ve made on why I asked that question, you can keep them in your own head.

I even addressed my question to the expert on the thread, who as always gave a very clear, helpful answer. I value his input, and even if he’s reiterating points raised previously, the repetition helps me (and I assume others) learn. Very science, ay. 

Glad it has because I think it’s a discussion which needs to be raised. What I’m trying to say is at this point in time it is very dangerous to focus on the fringe cases where the vaccine may not give the amount of protection that it will give to the majority of people. Soon vaccine uptake is going to tail off and slow down dramatically. I’m just getting you to please stop giving food to the anti-vaxxers. Our coverage should be focusing on the positives and the efficacy. I’m just trying to warn you that soon it’s going to become really really difficult when uptake starts to tail off.

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9 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

I honestly don't know what is the actual point in getting the vaccines if you are younger.  Its pretty clear it isn't really a route to anything other than the same shit we have been doing over the last 15 months.

Unless you are scared of the 0.00005 chance of getting seriously ill from it even without the vaccine.  Then I could understand.

But the vaccine was sold as a passport to freedom and our lives back.  Monday looks shit.

Thats why we should do what the French are doing and expand the vaccine passport for August. that'll get the youngsters wanting a jab

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2 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

Our coverage should be focusing on the positives and the efficacy. I’m just trying to warn you that soon it’s going to become really really difficult when uptake starts to tail off.

We're a discussion forum, not a news outlet. 

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Just now, DeanoL said:

We're a discussion forum, not a news outlet. 

All I’m trying to say is look at America. Eventually vaccine uptake hits a peak and starts falling. Because we should approach this situation on the basis that no matter how much we try not everyone is going to get this vaccine. Let’s do everything we can to not increase the number of doubters.

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6 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

What do you mean by that? Do you think it's not going to happen?

What is going to happen on Monday ?  It isn't clear. What is clear is while the legal stuff around masks is going it's going to still be imposed on a wide scale regardless. Travel is going to be a shitshow.  Schools are still going to be a shitshow.  Lots mate.  Monday is very very far from a return to normal and if the vaccines where not enough then what will be ? 

Stop pretending you don't know what I am going on about.  You are usually better than the rest. Its a fucking depressing outcome and I can't believe most of you really don't agree.

I guess it's come down to what you call normal and what you call freedom of choice.

Edited by Barry Fish
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1 hour ago, JoeyT said:

I'm going sailing this weekend and beginning to think we'll be safer at sea than we will be on land given the current rates!

My tonsils are giving me grief from all the LFT's i've been doing recently. 

Between LFTs and having to spend my entire shift shouting to be heard by guests (the perspex used on the screen has amazing sound proofing. Which isn't ideal) my throat just feels raw. 

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1 minute ago, steviewevie said:

ok...this is where I get effectiveness and efficacy mixed up. Would these vaccines have had 100% efficacy? Or would they have been high enough to be able to get these illnesses to very low levels or even eradicate them (i.e. 100% effective)?

Efficacy and effectiveness are more or less the same thing. We use the term efficacy to describe outcomes in a controlled clinical trial, effectiveness is used to described how they perform in real world use. In the trial, we compare to a placebo, in the real world, cases pre- and post-vaccination (case controlled). One is clean, randomised, controlled data (the trial) the other is noisy (real world). Participants in the trial are carefully selected and there are pre-identified inclusion/exclusion criteria which can't be applied in the real world as we want everyone to get the vaccine. So, how they work when the population taking them isn't as uniform as they are in the trials leads us to use the term effectiveness when describing how well they perform. You can choose your outcome when describing either, so you can describe their efficacy or effectiveness at preventing transmission, or (a)symptomatic disease or severe disease or hospitalisations, or ICU admissions or deaths. The bar for approval was 50% efficacy in terms of symptomatic/severe disease (and even that is a moveable feast as you can also define what you think represents symptomatic/severe disease...so some trials included very specific SpO2 levels that were different from others in their definition of severe disease, some included other features of Covid that weren't included in all the trials, hence comparing efficacy from one to another is not entirely accurate). How much virus is circulating influences how effective any vaccine is (as well as a whole bunch of other things, your behaviour, your own underlying genetic makeup, how your immune system is functioning (which varies from person to person and even within people depending on their own physical state) and so on). In terms of eradicating a disease, the measles vaccine is estimated to be about 90% effective at preventing infection. This is more than enough to eradicate it if over 70% of the population get vaccinated (measles has a R0 of between 12 and 20 depending on the environment, so is massively more infectious than our friend SARS-CoV-2, hence the high % of vaccinated individuals required for herd immunity). New people are born all the time, so they need to join the ranks of the vaccinated, or the herd immunity drops and we get outbreaks. However, our good friend Andrew Wakefield ensured that enough people aren't vaccinated and we have seen a resurgence in measles cases. 

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5 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

What is going to happen on Monday ?  It isn't clear. What is clear is while the legal stuff around masks is going it's going to still be imposed on a wide scale regardless. Travel is going to be a shitshow.  Schools are still going to be a shitshow.  Lots mate.  Monday is very very far from a return to normal and if the vaccines where not enough then what will be ? 

Stop pretending you don't know what I am going on about.  You are usually better than the rest. Its a fucking depressing outcome and I can't believe most of you really don't agree.

I guess it's come down to what you call normal and what you call freedom of choice.

Not pretending anything, genuinely didn't know. There have been doomongers on here predicting that it'd be cancelled so was wondering if you'd be in with that group. 

I still think the vaccines are the way out, but we've not finished the vaccination programme yet, so there's gains yet to come.

They're also the way out for international travel, but that requires vaccination programmes finished in the places we want to travel to also. That was always going to be the case, it's why I've never been that excited about Monday anyway because I care more about being able to see friends in Europe than going to clubs or gigs. 

Travel will be a shitshow the rest of the year but that's because that's how long a lot of the world will take to finish vaccinating.

Schools will be closed anyway, won't they?

It's difficult for me because you know my views on unlocking and that I do think it's too early but I'm looking at Monday, at the announcement the other day, and you appear to have got everything you wanted. And yet you're still unhappy? I mean it really is the worst of all worlds when the government pick the choice that makes both of us depressed!

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Anyone who ever thought 'Freedom Day' was ever going to give us total freedom has obviously not been paying attention.

It never was, all it was was a lovely headline to cover up shit the government was doing and to make their blind followers happy.

Even if masks turn out to be a legal requirement still (which they should be) then there are so many other legal things telling us to do stuff or stopping us from doing stuff what does one more really matter?

The vaccine is the way out of this - but not overnight and not on any given date. They are fabulous as are all the scientists who created them - and they are the ones I listen to, not some poster on a  festival forum who seems to think he knows better. Some people really do have over sized egos!

It will take years and years and maybe in all our lifetimes we will never see what was deemed normal again.

If you really think 19th July is the end then you really need a head wobble.

Anyway, love and peace y'all - if I am allowed to say that!!

ear your masks, enjoy your lives, think of others as this is not all about you - and most of all, wake up and realise we have years to go before this is 'over' and we are 'free' of it.

 

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14 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

Glad it has because I think it’s a discussion which needs to be raised. What I’m trying to say is at this point in time it is very dangerous to focus on the fringe cases where the vaccine may not give the amount of protection that it will give to the majority of people. Soon vaccine uptake is going to tail off and slow down dramatically. I’m just getting you to please stop giving food to the anti-vaxxers. Our coverage should be focusing on the positives and the efficacy. I’m just trying to warn you that soon it’s going to become really really difficult when uptake starts to tail off.

They're not fringe cases though. The fringe cases (outliers) are the double jabbed people that have died or the double jabbed people in ICU (of which there are very few...and maybe this is under-reported, though it isn't here I should add, it was headline news last night). Double jabbed people getting mild/asymptomatic disease will become the norm (and will increase when all restriction are lifted...if we stop testing at the rate we currently are, and eventually we will, we won't even know they exist...people will just assume they have a cold). It's exactly what we want the vaccines to do. Remove the morbidity/mortality burden so we can have our lives back. I entirely agree that more positive reporting of this is required though. 

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4 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

It terrifies me the idea that a certain thing cannot be questioned under any circumstances, just to manipulate a certain situation 

It’s not that it shouldn’t be questioned it’s the fact that it should be balanced. Right now it’s wall to wall coverage about how the vaccines are failing against the delta variant. No coverage at all of our deaths now being “at average” way lower than influenza deaths.

The media and the focus can’t talk about anything other than doomsday. I just want to caveat that this is going to seriously backfire unless there is some more balance to the debate. 

 

When the delta variant fizzles out and a new variant comes in and vaccine uptake tails off you’re going to be wishing you weren’t being so negative when our numbers at the moment are so good.

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3 minutes ago, Nobody Interesting said:

 

It will take years and years and maybe in all our lifetimes we will never see what was deemed normal again.

If you really think 19th July is the end then you really need a head wobble.

Anyway, love and peace y'all - if I am allowed to say that!!

ear your masks, enjoy your lives, think of others as this is not all about you - and most of all, wake up and realise we have years to go before this is 'over' and we are 'free' of it.

 

Speak for yourself. Ill be going to gigs and films asap

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