The Dirty Independence Question

[Buff124]

News comes that the Oxford University Union will hold a debate on Scottish independence next Saturday. The speaker in favour of independence will be...........no, not him. Not even close.

Its gonna be Colin Fox, founder member of the Scottish Socialist Party, former MSP, and speaker at many Radical Independence Campaign meetings. .

https://twitter.com/colinfoxssp

EDIT

Colin Fox on UKIP: "I think Nigel Farage is a tosser, quite frankly. "

Edited May 5, 2014 by Buff124

[LJS]

Also, I find the "yes" campaign to be pretty terrible as well.

Yet again , I won't entirely disagree with you. If by the yes campaign you mean the official Yes campaign & the SNP white paper.

They suffer from some of the problems of the "no" campaign. Mainly, that they are run by politicians & they, to a large extent run it as an adversarial campaign where they look to spin things to their best advantage. Now I think there is a fair argument for saying Yes have generally been a bit smarter & more nimble on their feet.

And of course they have a positive message which is inherently more attractive than a negative one.

However what those who are observing this from outside Scotland are not getting ( not through any fault of their's) is that their are many yes (with a small "y" ) campaigns. They are sometimes portrayed as "fronts" for the SNP but again that is usually an allegation made by those geographically distant from Scotland.

There is an energy & an excitement in these campaigns that I have previously seen in the Miner's strike & in the anti iraq war movements. In my opinion it is engaging more people than either of these, worthy though they were.

The town hall meeting has been reinvented - up & down the country, halls are packed with people eager to hear both sides of the arguments - if you have a day or two to spare you could watch some of them here http://new.livestream.com/IndependenceLive

I've only watched 2 or 3 but the ones i have watched have been passionate but reasoned debates with both sides listened to with respect and almost entirely free from rancour & ill feeling.

But, most tellingly, they are not about whether we shall be better or worse off, whether we will use the pound or not or whether we will be in the EU or not. They are about what future is best for our children & our children's children.

Neil will tell you there is an issue when we wake up the day after the referendum & we are not all rich beyond our wildest dreams. He's right. Yeah you heard right. I'll say it again "Neil is right" If we get independence we may well have to deal with the fact that some people expected too much.

I think he overestimates the problem - after all: all of us: Scots. English Welsh etc are well used to seeing promises evaporate once the politicians have received our votes. But it will be a problem. - one of many Scotland as an infant independent Country will have to deal with.

And you know what? It may all go horribly wrong.

Just like it might if we stay together.

See that future?

Pure dead scary , so it is

Edited May 5, 2014 by LJS

[LJS]

News comes that the Oxford University Union will hold a debate on Scottish independence next Saturday. The speaker in favour of independence will be...........no, not him. Not even close.

Its gonna be Colin Fox, founder member of the Scottish Socialist Party, former MSP, and speaker at many Radical Independence Campaign meetings. .

https://twitter.com/colinfoxssp

EDIT

Colin Fox on UKIP: "I think Nigel Farage is a tosser, quite frankly. "

demonstrating that the campaign for independence is not just about the SNP

http://www.labourforindy.com/

http://www.scottishgreens.org.uk/uncategorized/indy-scotland-can-have-global-influence-harvie-speech/

http://www.womenforindependence.org/

https://www.facebook.com/Tu4si

http://www.businessforscotland.co.uk/

http://nationalcollective.com/

[eFestivals]

Yet the poverty level in RoI is still lower than in the UK,and 6% lower than in Northern Ireland.

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/poverty-levels-in-north-higher-than-in-republic-1.1736881

have you never realised that individuals prefer to be rich, they don't prefer everyone to not be poor? That's why the majority of individuals keep voting themselves rich (or at least, that's what they believe themselves to be doing).

If that wasn't the case we'd vote for a party that said it would keep raising taxes until poverty was addressed, instead of the opposite (it's no different in Scotland btw).

Do you think poverty will get addressed in iScotland, where you've been promised lashings of jam and look like voting yes because of it, but where addressing poverty will require the opposite of that, tax rises impacting onto individuals?

Scotland could have already raised taxes and addressed poverty. It was even SNP policy for about 5 minutes until they didn't get elected, then they realised that saying they'd do it but having no way to do it got them more votes.

[eFestivals]

This too makes me wonder.

Belfast Telegraph - 11 JUNE 2012

The UK will slash the interest rate on its bilateral loan to Ireland for a second time, UK financial secretary to the Treasury Mark Hoban said in a written ministerial statement.

Mr Hoban said: "Following the agreement last year, the Treasury have now in principle agreed the new, lower interest rate on the bilateral loan to Ireland. The new rate will represent the UK's cost of funds plus a small service fee of 0.18%."

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/local-national/republic-of-ireland/uk-to-cut-ireland-loan-rate-again-28760013.html

Who cares about this in relation to iScotland?

If iScotland is ever needing a facility like this from rUK, iScotland will have to be bending over and taking one from those who are loaning it the money - in other words, Scotland will have pretty much lost its fiscal independence and will be in much the same situation as it is right now.

Outside of a bailout (which is considered cheaper by the loaning countries than having the borrowing country go bankrupt, it's worth remembering), iscotland will pay the normal commercial borrowing rates as any state does, and unfortunately for scotland they'll be costing iScotland a chunk more than UK currently pays or rUK will be paying. That's what those bankers do, and lovely letters from lovely Alex encouraging bankers to bankrupt iScotland won't have those bankers give iScotland a freebie.

Scotland isn't yet independent, and of most interest to you is iScotland's bankruptcy and punitive loans as a bailout? Are you sure you're not part of Project Fear? Perhaps you went to Eton?

Or maybe, you're starting to understand that there's serious considerations to be made on the basis of real facts and not Alex'[s fantasies?

[eFestivals]

Would iScotland get chucked out and have to re-apply for membership ?

How can something which doesn't exist get chucked out? It would have to become a member first.

Whether iScotland gets to be a member depends on the point of view of the other members. iScotland doesn't get it by demand.

Funnily enough, that's no different to all the international clubs that iScotland wants to join.

[eFestivals]

We all like balance

So I thought I would share this which does nothing more or less than demonstrate that there despite Neil's cast iron certainties & indisputable facts - there are in fact other opinions out there:

http://www.scotsman.com/news/michael-fry-sterling-in-scotland-is-up-to-us-1-3208275

That says nothing I don't know. I agree with it in totality and always have done. If you think different the error is yours alone.

Change always causes damage somewhere, that's why so little change happens thru govts, and happens very slowly. There are always vested interests that lose out by any change and so resist it.

But that doesn't get to mean that the best solution for rUK is to go along with what is best for iScotland. The interests of iScotland and rUK are fundamentalist different, by the fact of them being fundamentally different sovereign states.

Whatever currency option iScotland goes for there's a bad impact onto the UK - but the worst possible bad impact that can come onto rUK is iScotland's bankruptcy within a CU.

And that's why rUK politicians have already said they believe it to be politically impossible to support a CU - because that is saying, in full effect, that rUK taxpayers would still have an inescapable financial liability for Scotland despite Scotland saying it wanted nothing from the UK by wanting to leave it.

The people of Scotland object to their taxes being used for anything that isn't Scottish - it's the whole basis of the referendum. Why do you think that the people of the rUK will decide to take less-selfish attitude than the people of Scotland?

Especially when the people of rUK keep on voting for the selfish party, and you think that's too selfish for Scotland to go along with?

Scotland will get what Scotland wants, but without the confusion and inconsistencies of the SNP's ridiculousness. Get used to what you'll be voting for.

[eFestivals]

I don't totally disagree with you - the 3 main UK parties are united in opposing independence so it is not in their interests from that point of view to give any credence to any of the claims of the yes campaign. Indeed, steeped as they are in decades of confrontational politics, they seize on any opportunity to undermine the claims of the yes campaign.

The problem arises, when the sun rises on the day after the referendum & Scotland has voted Yes.

North of the border we will have the mother of all hangover's from a night of celebration.

South of the border the hangover will be no less real as rUK wakes up to a new reality.

What do they do when they realise that all the things they have ruled out as unthinkable are suddenly in the rUK's interest's almost as much as they are Scotland's?

It can never be in one sovereign state's interests to guarantee the debts of another state.

That is what iScotland is asking for.

Why can't you understand that rUK taxpayers do not want to guarantee iScottish debts?

rUK might *chose* to cover them in certain circumstances (including punitive fiscal measures onto iScotland, to help ensure we're paid back), as happened with Ireland.

But that's something very different to an inescapable guarantee, which is what CU would be.

[LJS]

Morning all

Here is another Englishman living in England giving his opinion.

Oh...wait a minute...he's actually spent some time in Scotland & not just formed his view based on newspaper columnists..

http://blogs.channel4.com/snowblog/visceral-hatred-westminister-politics/23805

Edited May 6, 2014 by LJS

[eFestivals]

However what those who are observing this from outside Scotland are not getting ( not through any fault of their's) is that their are many yes (with a small "y" ) campaigns. They are sometimes portrayed as "fronts" for the SNP but again that is usually an allegation made by those geographically distant from Scotland.

You keep saying your against the SNP, but that's as much as you're able to ever say against the SNP. And so you prove yourself as a front for the SNP.

Why has this passed you by?

I'm posting in here precisely because of people like you, who can't bring themselves to recognise the truth of things. They're happy to go along with the lies because they believe the prize of independence makes it sensible to go along with lies.

I disagree. Those lies will help ensure iScotland has much greater difficulties than it needs to have.

And not only that, but a referendum won on the basis of lies won't actually have been won on the basis of the question asked.

If independence is what the people of Scotland want it can be done without the lies.

But, most tellingly, they are not about whether we shall be better or worse off, whether we will use the pound or not or whether we will be in the EU or not. They are about what future is best for our children & our children's children.

if that were true, why do so many yes-ers talk about how they'll be swimming in jam post-Indy?

If it were true then the lies about jam can be retracted. Have Alex stand up and say "there is not £300k for every Scot, there might be nothing at all".

But he doesn't, and you'll now tell me that there might be £300k of jam so Alex is OK to say it (but you hate me saying that there might not be ).

Neil will tell you there is an issue when we wake up the day after the referendum & we are not all rich beyond our wildest dreams. He's right. Yeah you heard right. I'll say it again "Neil is right" If we get independence we may well have to deal with the fact that some people expected too much.

And deal with the fact that the majority don't support independence after all - but too late to change things.

And you know what? It may all go horribly wrong.

Just like it might if we stay together.

It might.

But a big and diverse state has better protections from world crises than a small state does.

Not everything is equal. Scotland's future, by the nature of what the state will be, is less secure than that of rUK. That's an inescapable financial fact.

But bullying and buster to 'sophisticated' Scotland. OK.

Edited May 6, 2014 by eFestivals

[eFestivals]

Here is another Englishman living in England giving his opinion.

Congratulations for having found someone who agrees with you.

What do you think it means?

Do you think the fact of someone agreeing with you makes you right?

[russycarps]

wow there has been a frightening lack of understanding about international finance posted since I was last on.

And these people are voting for independence on the back of this lack of understanding!

It seems that these fine fellows have convinced themselves that the UK will be handing out interest free loans if they get into difficulties. Because our lovely tory government just love helping out people in their hour of need right! Amazing delusion.

If/when you need to come cap in hand to the UK (or the EU) I can guarantee that the first condition of the loan will be that your corporation tax rate is increased to a less self-serving rate. Ireland just about had the clout to reject this term. I wonder if scotland would?

[eFestivals]

It seems that these fine fellows have convinced themselves that the UK will be handing out interest free loans if they get into difficulties. Because our lovely tory government just love helping out people in their hour of need right! Amazing delusion.

yep - the same mean tory Etonite Englishmen that are so mean and nasty they're the cause of why Scotland wants independence in the first place. But after independence, if they're anything but lovely to Scotland, they want all Scottish people to die.

[LJS]

wow there has been a frightening lack of understanding about international finance posted since I was last on.

And these people are voting for independence on the back of this lack of understanding!

It seems that these fine fellows have convinced themselves that the UK will be handing out interest free loans if they get into difficulties. Because our lovely tory government just love helping out people in their hour of need right! Amazing delusion.

If/when you need to come cap in hand to the UK (or the EU) I can guarantee that the first condition of the loan will be that your corporation tax rate is increased to a less self-serving rate. Ireland just about had the clout to reject this term. I wonder if scotland would?

The whole of the financial world operates on the assumption that the vast majority of punters have no idea how it works. Do you really think they want us to understand quantitative easing?

Ignoring the continued assumption that corporation tax will be reduced although it is only that policy of 1 party, I am not aware the Ireland was required to reduce its corporation tax rate which I believe is below that of the UK.

Edited May 6, 2014 by LJS

[eFestivals]

Ignoring the continued assumption that corporation tax will be reduced although it is only that policy of 1 party

why ignore it? It's one of the few certainties of independence, at least in what will be attempted by iScotland.

But you prefer to ignore it, cos it allows you to pretend that iScotland won't be the SNP's false dream.

I am not aware the Ireland was required to reduce its corporation tax rate which I believe is below that of the UK.

It was required to implement a whole raft of measures that it would rather have not have done.

Unlike with Salmond's dream, it was the EU which set the specific conditions, because it was the EU's currency that Ireland uses.

Guess who says what iScotland does if there's a CU?

And it doesn't even need iScotland to go tits up before iScotland are taking instruction from Gropec**t* Threadneedle Street.

(* did you know that's Threadneedle Street's original name? Seriously!).

Edited May 6, 2014 by eFestivals

[Buff124]

Scotland could have already raised taxes

Capped at 3%

As BBC Economics correspondent Douglas Fraser pointed out some years ago, the cost of administration by our old pals HM Treasury would eat up most of the extra revenue. You better ask Tony Bliar why it was ever green lighted. I haven't a clue. Not for the first time , you say ?

Edited May 6, 2014 by Buff124

[eFestivals]

Capped at 3%

The point is that whatever the set-up, the people of Scotland are unlikely to vote themselves greater taxes for the benefit of the poor.

If Scotland votes no in September, it'll be interesting to see how Scotland handles the new arrangements from 2016 - where it's been set-up so Scotland can't cop out on things and blame Westminster. Each and every year Scotland will have to set an income tax rate, even if every year they decide to mirror Westminster. That'll be one less myth, I reckon.

-----

BTW, I've been thinking about the unbridled joy of the Sunday Herald coming out for indie, and i've decided that it's a very good thing. I hope more newspapers come out in support.

There's got to be some responsible sources out there that yes voters might listen to - otherwise it's the lies and liars that get to win (take your pick for which side's liars that ends up being) and get to steal power from the people.

As I have to keep repeating: I've no problem if yes win, but there'd be nothing worse for iScotland IMO than them winning on the basis of lies and myths. That's no basis for a good future.

[Buff124]

have you never realised that individuals prefer to be rich, they don't prefer everyone to not be poor? That's why the majority of individuals keep voting themselves rich (or at least, that's what they believe themselves to be doing).

If that wasn't the case we'd vote for a party that said it would keep raising taxes until poverty was addressed, instead of the opposite (it's no different in Scotland btw).

Remember back in 2005, when the Glastonbury Festival supported the Make Poverty History movement ? Oh how you must have laughed.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/entertainment/4620635.stm

[eFestivals]

Remember back in 2005, when the Glastonbury Festival supported the Make Poverty History movement ? Oh how you must have laughed.

what i think you're missing here is that I'm simply stating the reality, and not my own view.

It matters not a feck if I want to genuinely make poverty history or not. If others do not, it doesn't happen.

So will iScotland's middle classes and doing-alright classes vote to make themselves poorer? All I know is the history of votes in Scotland, which tells me that they definitely won't do.

I'm very happy for those poorest if iScotland proves me wrong.

[LJS]

what i think you're missing here is that I'm simply stating the reality, and not my own view.

It matters not a feck if I want to genuinely make poverty history or not. If others do not, it doesn't happen.

So will iScotland's middle classes and doing-alright classes vote to make themselves poorer? All I know is the history of votes in Scotland, which tells me that they definitely won't do.

I'm very happy for those poorest if iScotland proves me wrong.

I'm not sure we have been given the choice often enough to be certain.

The only occasion in recent times I am aware of any party standing on a policy of raising income tax is the Snp in 1999 with their "penny for Scotland"

They lost but their vote increased on the last Westminster vote (this was the 1st Holyrood election)

They ditched that pledge for the 2003 election & their vote decreased.

These facts prove absolutely nothing as many factors influence the electorate's decision.

It has become accepted political wisdom that you can't promise tax rises & win. But other than the rather inconclusive example above , I can't remember anyone trying it.

[Buff124]

what i think you're missing here is that I'm simply stating the reality, and not my own view.

It matters not a feck if I want to genuinely make poverty history or not. If others do not, it doesn't happen.

So will iScotland's middle classes and doing-alright classes vote to make themselves poorer? All I know is the history of votes in Scotland, which tells me that they definitely won't do.

I'm very happy for those poorest if iScotland proves me wrong.

One measure of how well a State, large or small, survives a fiscal crisis is the extent of poverty amongst the people it represents.

As at the moment the UK poverty levels suffer comparison with Ireland and with Iceland - two small countries also caught up in the global financial crisis - the argument that larger, more diverse countries are better able to deal with these situations doesn't quite stand up for me, although its a fair argument to make.

Why are poverty levels important ? Depends on whether you take the perspective of the people owning the state, or vice versa.

Just sayin

[LJS]

Congratulations for having found someone who agrees with you.

What do you think it means?

Do you think the fact of someone agreeing with you makes you right?

Of course that's what I think.

So we can all go home now

[LJS]

It's Eurovision week.

Vote yes/oui/ja for a Scottish Eurovision.

I think they'll let us into that.

They'd better ...or I'm voting no.

[Buff124]

It also depends on what kind of government the people elect. An hypothetical iScotland would, on balance of probability, elect a Centre-Left coalition government to Holyrood every time using AM voting.

EDIT: iScotland's political Centre would probably be a bit further Left than where it is at the moment in UK terms.

Edited May 6, 2014 by Buff124

[Buff124]

Could a currency union work under such circumstances ? There would have to be built in deal breakers such as agreed deficit levels. The hypothetical iScotland might not see much social change for the first few years. Or it might. What do I know ?