Weather thread 2010

[The Nal]

Looks good here

[fowls]

Oh dear the Prime Minister is meeting Sarcozy today, not a good sign

[strudders]

From TNM news.....

and I quote....

“We can’t be too particular at this early stage and won’t have a more detailed forecast until Monday (21 June). However, it has been predominantly dry in Somerset and this is good news for campers as even if it rains during the festival, the ground will be dry.”

[devonhammer]

BBC news were saying it was a symbol of how much Britain and France have in common. Bad bad bad!

Edited June 18, 2010 by devonhammer

[fowls]

I expect it's more likely that he's summoned him over to ask WTF he's doing with our weather. Or maybe to celebrate the anniversary of Waterloo? Or perhaps to watch yesterday's coverage of the Mexico game?

Edited June 18, 2010 by fowls

[jezzer]

I expect it's more likely that he's summoned him over to ask WTF he's doing with our weather. Or maybe to celebrate the anniversary of Waterloo? Or perhaps to watch yesterday's coverage of the Mexico game?

[The Nal]

From TNM news.....

and I quote....

In my experience that does not last for very long.......

[worthyraver]

The GFS 06z is coming out now, up to Friday at the moment, it has the LP winning I am afraid.

If the next ECM confirms this, it will get real squeaky bum time.

[jezzer]

I still think GFS may be overcooking the amount of rain for next weekend, Sunday especially. We'll have to see what the UKMO says later.

KEEP CALM AND CARRY ON

[Winkle Picker]

Long time viewer (of this thread!), first time writer.

The only thing I've learnt is that nobody can predict the weather accurately further than a very few days out (and even then it's liable to change ad hoc). The weather is too capricious a beast for even the most super of super computers, and modelling too liable to being skewed by even slight errors in data, which serve only to amplify the error.

And I'm an economist so I know what a load of old arse any models are the further out they go. Should know better really than to join in the daily highs and lows on here (no pun intended) as we get good news/bad news on a constantly changing basis

Think I'll do my heart a favour and stay away and tune back in Tuesday pm to have a late packing change if necessary! To me that's the only reliable time scale that we can get.

[possum]

Think I'll do my heart a favour and stay away and tune back in Tuesday pm to have a late packing change if necessary! To me that's the only reliable time scale that we can get.

[Mr Weazle]

Long time viewer (of this thread!), first time writer.

The only thing I've learnt is that nobody can predict the weather accurately further than a very few days out (and even then it's liable to change ad hoc). The weather is too capricious a beast for even the most super of super computers, and modelling too liable to being skewed by even slight errors in data, which serve only to amplify the error.

And I'm an economist so I know what a load of old arse any models are the further out they go. Should know better really than to join in the daily highs and lows on here (no pun intended) as we get good news/bad news on a constantly changing basis

Think I'll do my heart a favour and stay away and tune back in Tuesday pm to have a late packing change if necessary! To me that's the only reliable time scale that we can get.

[JoeyDeacon]

I agree with you. Total bullshit. If it rains it turns into a mudbath within 30 minutes. Anyone remember Sunday night at about 1am last year? Started raining, very heavy mind you, and by the time I got back to my tent in Michaels Mead from the Stone circle, the place was a washout. A disaster like.

[cejx]

OK. new updates on Netweather - but where are Saturday and Sunday> hmmm

[sprocketrocket]

Didn't exactlly the same thing happen last year?

We all got excited cause it was going to be glorious (German) then we all got depressed cause JackOne said it was going to be arse(French).

But when we got there it was Mostly German and the French just popped in for a couple of hours to say "Zut Allores" Then buggered off again, when the germans invaded for the rest of the Festival.

[jezzer]

Didn't exactlly the same thing happen last year?

We all got excited cause it was going to be glorious (German) then we all got depressed cause JackOne said it was going to be arse(French).

But when we got there it was Mostly German and the French just popped in for a couple of hours to say "Zut Allores" Then buggered off again, when the germans invaded for the rest of the Festival.

[formed a band]

while i understand its fickle and always changing what i dont understand is how it ALL changes constantly

and not that the picture gradually gets clearer

eg yesterday - weds is ok

today - no its not

tomoz - ah its fine actually

id have thought each day would clear up as it went along. and i just dont get how the different predictors differ so much

its a bit like i want to decide who to bet on tonight

ill ask a load of sports pundits

then ill ask my bloody mother

and give them equal gravitas

[Winkle Picker]

Today in Liverpool was supposed to be glorious, sunny and low 20's, as of Wednesday. Today is upon us and it's cold and the clouds look like armageddon is closing in rapidly.

And I'm supposed to trust these forecasts a week in advance?!

[devonhammer]

while i understand its fickle and always changing what i dont understand is how it ALL changes constantly

and not that the picture gradually gets clearer

eg yesterday - weds is ok

today - no its not

tomoz - ah its fine actually

id have thought each day would clear up as it went along. and i just dont get how the different predictors differ so much

its a bit like i want to decide who to bet on tonight

ill ask a load of sports pundits

then ill ask my bloody mother

and give them equal gravitas

Edited June 18, 2010 by devonhammer

[jezzer]

I'm going to do some work, but I'll leave you with this latest update:

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?MENU=Week-ahead (note this is probably GFS data)

Warm and dry start but possibly downhill just in time from Friday. We need the Met Office to bring us hope later, otherwise it looks like we may, and I stress, may be in trouble, bloody Low pressure, talk about timing an arrival to perfection, you couldn't make it up! :angry:

Edited June 18, 2010 by jezzer

[formed a band]

How it works is that you predict the weather for, lets say, an hours time. This will be pretty accurate, but even then the precise temperature, pressure, precipitation etc could be slightly out. The next prediction is based on that one and so on and so on until you get out to the festival.

If the first prediction is even slightly out then the next run has a new, different starting point and therefore, by the time you've got a weeks worth of predictions, potentially a very different outcome. This is where ensembles come in. There are several ways of doing ensembles and I'm not sure what GFS do, but one way is to say that in an hour there is a 60% chance of outcome A and a 40% chance of outcome B. An ensemble would run both the A and the B (and probably C, D, E, F etc).

[EDIT] This is why you can't predict the weather except in very general terms for more than a few days.

As with everything I put on here, my knowledge is 20 yrs out of date and that's if I remember it right.

The equal gravitas bit is a good point. Based on Netweather forums we should trust the Met Office (and therefore BBC) and ECM more than the GFS. The problem is that the GFS isn't just your mother, but the 20 friends she chats to (Doris Accuweather, Hilda Metcheck etc).

[fred quimby]

I think I may have done something bad. someone who I work with and is going to Glasto started chatting about next week. They came at me with this statement

"well as long as it doesn't R--- when I put my tent up I don't mind for the rest of the time"

I the punched her hard in the face and threw her down the stairs.

Did I do wrong?

[devonhammer]

I think I may have done something bad. someone who I work with and is going to Glasto started chatting about next week. They came at me with this statement

"well as long as it doesn't R--- when I put my tent up I don't mind for the rest of the time"

I the punched her hard in the face and threw her down the stairs.

Did I do wrong?

[stevieweevil]

latest comments on netweather aren't good... talks of ECM caving in, troughs coming up, thunderstorms and frustration for glasto goers

[formed a band]

I think I may have done something bad. someone who I work with and is going to Glasto started chatting about next week. They came at me with this statement

"well as long as it doesn't R--- when I put my tent up I don't mind for the rest of the time"

I the punched her hard in the face and threw her down the stairs.

Did I do wrong?