Weather thread 2010

[worthyraver]

I think "worthyraver" is a fairly obvious internet wind up merchant.

[Langdale Wolf]

I dont mind admitting I am bit of a pessimist on this one, still very early and there is time for things to change for the worse or please for the better.

The only thing to feel good about is the fact that it has not rained much this month so far, so any rain with be falling on dry ground. In 2007 (sorry for writing that), only 4.1mm of rain on Thursday was enough to turn the site into a quagmire from which it never recovered, of course the ground was wet already and it never stopped raining so it never could recover.

In 2009 on Friday morning 17.0mm rain fell and the site did recover, actually not looked that figure up before, I have found a cause for optimism. I think I will wear my maniki I am joking I would not put anybody though that.

[gibbo13]

[Edit] I didn't read that to the end before posting

Don't worry too much about this, or Metcheck, or TWO, or the Netweather GFS runs.

The reason we use GFS is that it forecasts a long way out and even though we know it's unreliable, we're impatient. The big problem with GFS is that the data is free unlike every other source and so every weather prediction site uses it and they appear to back each other up. This is not the case - they are all using the same data.

Much better is ECM, YR.NO and UKMO which (unlike the American GFS) are European. These have a much better record, but do not all put out easily understandable weather forecasts.

This is the chart for Thursday from ECM (and it's fairly typical of Wed-Sat):

That big H near us is a high and as long as we've got one of those near us and not a big L, then it will be dry.

We should all be optimistic today. The more accurate forecasts are starting to get within range and they are very good.

[fred quimby]

still very early and there is time for things to change for the worse

[devonhammer]

Mr Hammer, I dont know you but you are fast becoming my favourite person.

[worthyraver]

I would love to know how much rain fell on early Friday morning in 2005. It was f**king ridiculous.

[sinhala]

I would love to know how much rain fell on early Friday morning in 2005. It was f**king ridiculous.

[scorp]

what a diff a day makes. today's charts on unisys give a slack area of low pressure drifting across the country pre [-ish] festival. look to the north west; another lingers. but still early days.

[amfy]

I was hoping for a swarm of locust!

[dirk4danger]

Interesting pivot of the high on the new GFS. Not sure how it's going to develop but up to Sunday 20th it's producing higher temps..

[worthyraver]

Thanks. Unfortunately, if you got to know me, you'd hate me.

We need to get a bandwagon going following the ECM. There are so many sites with crappy GFS data that it distorts the facts and brings everyone down.

There's a lot of people on here who now have a reasonable weather knowledge, so we can interpret an ECM chart and give it 2 days and ECM will be covering the whole festival.

I'm really optimistic of a dry festival now. It will probably be cool (not cold), but NRNC

[dirk4danger]

I was trying to look though ECM charts this morning, but their whole site and the charts themselves are not as user friendly as the GFS models, then I foolish decided to do some work.

I did get the chart you have posted up on my screen and thought it was okay, however I sometimes look at similar charts in the GFS and I think that looks okay and go to the rainfall chart and I am gutted.

We should have a good idea by Friday, er like we did last year when it is a defo scorcher at the time, then the forecast all turn to poo in the last few days. Although it was okay in the end

[jezzer]

Thanks. Unfortunately, if you got to know me, you'd hate me.

We need to get a bandwagon going following the ECM. There are so many sites with crappy GFS data that it distorts the facts and brings everyone down.

There's a lot of people on here who now have a reasonable weather knowledge, so we can interpret an ECM chart and give it 2 days and ECM will be covering the whole festival.

I'm really optimistic of a dry festival now. It will probably be cool (not cold), but NRNC

[devonhammer]

I was trying to look though ECM charts this morning, but their whole site and the charts themselves are not as user friendly as the GFS models, then I foolish decided to do some work.

I did get the chart you have posted up on my screen and thought it was okay, however I sometimes look at similar charts in the GFS and I think that looks okay and go to the rainfall chart and I am gutted.

We should have a good idea by Friday, er like we did last year when it is a defo scorcher at the time, then the forecast all turn to poo in the last few days. Although it was okay in the end

[android-app-developer]

If the weather geeks on this forum (geek meant in a positive way, I'm a programmer geek) are saying that the ECM model is better than the GFS model then this link http://weather.unisys.com/ecmwf/ecmwf_500p_4panel_eur.html may be useful to people as it shows the pressure up to six days ahead. It looks like we still have high pressure on Monday (see image below) so I guess people should bookmark the link and check it each day for the next week. Again, fingers crossed!

[Serj Trouserdale]

I reckon after looking at all the evidence its about a 90% chance of good weather.

Thats good.

[fred quimby]

I see those pretty colours in a positive way

[Serj Trouserdale]

I'm a meteorologist by trade btw.

[househead]

What's with the MetCheck this year?!

Temps look more like they are for February!?

http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/14days.asp

[devonhammer]

If the weather geeks on this forum (geek meant in a positive way, I'm a programmer geek) are saying that the ECM model is better than the GFS model then this link http://weather.unisys.com/ecmwf/ecmwf_500p_4panel_eur.html may be useful to people as it shows the pressure up to six days ahead. It looks like we still have high pressure on Monday (see image below) so I guess people should bookmark the link and check it each day for the next week. Again, fingers crossed!

[The Nal]

I would love to know how much rain fell on early Friday morning in 2005. It was f**king ridiculous.

[Langdale Wolf]

It's true, GFS is more user friendly, especially when it's been prettied up by MetCheck or someone. The key thing is that there are really no lows at all on Wed-Fri on the ECM charts. The only low is way out on the other side of the Atlantic and won't make it over until well into the week after. The big difference between ECM and GFS is the low over Scandinavia. That's what's causing the wet stuff, but it's not on the ECM charts and the Norwegian Met Office don't have it either.

Chin up troops, we can win this!

[devonhammer]

I'm a meteorologist by trade btw.

Edited June 15, 2010 by devonhammer

[godders1966]

What's with the MetCheck this year?!

Temps look more like they are for February!?

http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/14days.asp

Edited June 15, 2010 by godders1966

[DougalMcGuire]

Rather than use Unisys, just go direct to ECM here, then you get 10 days.

On another point, I really need an Android app to show me all this on a small screen when I'm out. Pretty please