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WEATHER 2009 !


Guest sdaveak47

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It's out, still a 7

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?s...p;#entry1546085

Today's operational GFS charts are rather disappointing for the weekend of the festival with 2 of them going form a breakdown for the west, and one from the south. Unfortunately today there is a lack of ensembles available, and it is difficult to determine as to whether these charts are outliers. however going by recent ensembles and what ensembles are available for the runs today, it does seem as if they remain outliers, and as a result I am keeping the score at 7, even though some rain is possible over the weekend, it seems very likely the start of the festival will be dry and warm and this is closer to the reliable time frame.

Edited by kohoutec
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It's out, still a 7

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?s...p;#entry1546085

Today's operational GFS charts are rather disappointing for the weekend of the festival with 2 of them going form a breakdown for the west, and one from the south. Unfortunately today there is a lack of ensembles available, and it is difficult to determine as to whether these charts are outliers. however going by recent ensembles and what ensembles are available for the runs today, it does seem as if they remain outliers, and as a result I am keeping the score at 7, even though some rain is possible over the weekend, it seems very likely the start of the festival will be dry and warm and this is closer to the reliable time frame.

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Just looking at the GFS output for the most recent run (12z) there is a lot of rain forecasted for Saturday and Sunday :)

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html

Click on GFS -> Europa -> >180 (along the bottom) > Neiderschlag (rain)

Then click on 192, 204, 216 etc to show projected rainfall moving up from France on Saturday.

Obviously it's a long way off so it's unlikely to happen just like that, but it's worrying that it's a possibility!

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f_Jun1801m_a031937.jpg

What about that then!!?

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Just looking at the GFS output for the most recent run (12z) there is a lot of rain forecasted for Saturday and Sunday :)

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html

Click on GFS -> Europa -> >180 (along the bottom) > Neiderschlag (rain)

Then click on 192, 204, 216 etc to show projected rainfall moving up from France on Saturday.

Obviously it's a long way off so it's unlikely to happen just like that, but it's worrying that it's a possibility!

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So some people say cloudy, some say rainy and others say scorchio. Can we maybe agree that noone knows yet and its advisable not to get too high or too low about the weather, either way it'll be ace anyway.

Although if we have to choose i believe scorchio.

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She looks very nice
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Every year I subject myself to this tread and the roller-coaster of emotion it brings, I must be mad. It really feels as though we're back to 50/50 on the sun/rain chances now though :)

Edited by Splatt
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Looks just a little concerning at the mo, looks nice up until Saturday morning but then how much rain after that is anyones guess, even Jackones not sure and he knows it, we're still a few days away to be definite with anything.

From what I can scan from the present various forecasts, Wednesday to Friday looks warm and sunny for the festival but towards Saturday and Sunday you may need to unpack your wellies! However all are pretty sure it won't be monsoon stylee at any point of the fest. So the small amount of wet mud that may appear will probably dry up and vanish rapidly.

Edited by Cooter
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Every year I subject myself to this tread and the roller-coaster of emotion it brings, I must be mad. It really feels as though we're back to 50/50 on the sun/rain chances now though :)
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"The Weather always repays its debt."

The UK typically has good summers every 3 years, 2000 was a good year, 2003 also and 2006 was good as well.

On New Years day I made a prediction, that Glastonbury would be hot and dry and in less than a weeks time that is exactly what we'll have.

It's going to be dry and hot people!

Believe!!!!

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Now that all the weather model outputs are published directly online it allows everyone to make their own conclusions on the choppy, changy, unreliable (especially one single run) models rather than the professional forecasters everyone would rely on 10+ years ago. Defintely leads to much more stress :)

Edited by liquuid_fusion
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"The Weather always repays its debt."

The UK typically has good summers every 3 years, 2000 was a good year, 2003 also and 2006 was good as well.

On New Years day I made a prediction, that Glastonbury would be hot and dry and in less than a weeks time that is exactly what we'll have.

It's going to be dry and hot people!

Believe!!!!

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