Elections 5/5/2011

[diddly-dee]

I cant see Wales going for independence myself theres no real driving desire for it here. Wales and England are a lot more intertwined than Scotland and England - we dont have our own legal system, 30% of people living in Wales were born in England and a hell of a lot of people on the borders commute (both ways) across the border to work.

[Pogues Mcgogues]

Very good point at the moment, although the 'significance' of Scotland to the anti-tory vote is presently over-emphasised because of the current constituency boundaries - Scotland's population is circa 5 million (a shade over 8% of UK total) but they send (i believe) 77 MP's to westminster out of 651 (12% of the total). If the tory plans to reduce numbers of MP's down to 500 go ahead and, as they also promise, these constituencies will be consistent in terms of their demographic size, the number of Scottish MP's at Westmister could drop to 41/42 and the impact of Scottish votes in Westminster elections would be correspondingly diminished. As such, if this goes ahead and English voters correspondingly cease to perceive Scotland as a bulwark against tory rule, then any desire to keep the union together out of pragmatic anti-tory desires would be much watered-down.

[TalkShow Bob]

No, and ironically the schism in Cymru/Wales that has traditionally divided Nationalists/Unionists is the language (which isn't an issue in Scotland as, in spite of much effort and money, Scottish Gaelic is a dead language). Welsh/Cymraeg speakers have formed the bedrock of support for the separatist leaning Plaid (although this has changed since the Assembly) whereas left-leaning English speakers have looked towards the westminster centered labour party. If there hadn't been the language issue I think Cymru/Wales nationalists may have followed the same aspirational path as Scotland but Welsh nationalists have been, perhaps unfairly, perceievd as a largely rural party of 'Cymraeg speakers and Eisteddfods' by the English speakers in the industrial heartlands of Wales.

Edited May 9, 2011 by TalkShow Bob

[TalkShow Bob]

This is my biggest fear.

[Pogues Mcgogues]

Despite what tories might have us believe England is not comprised of a majority of tories. The trouble is that tory voters always get out and vote. Only two Labour governments in the post-war period have failed to win in England, that of February 1974, and 2005. Even in 2005, Labour was only 0.5% behind the Conservatives in England.

[pehaw]

Despite what tories might have us believe England is not comprised of a majority of tories. The trouble is that tory voters always get out and vote. Only two Labour governments in the post-war period have failed to win in England, that of February 1974, and 2005. Even in 2005, Labour was only 0.5% behind the Conservatives in England.

[Alcatraz]

Also, the centre-left progressive vote is split.

What we really need is true PR.

A perpetual coalition of Labour, LDs (in their true colours) and Greens would be fantastic imho. They would command 55 - 60 % of the electorate at most elections and would never be out of office if they could only bury the hatchet and work together.

[TalkShow Bob]

Also, the centre-left progressive vote is split.

What we really need is true PR.

A perpetual coalition of Labour, LDs (in their true colours) and Greens would be fantastic imho. They would command 55 - 60 % of the electorate at most elections and would never be out of office if they could only bury the hatchet and work together.

[Pogues Mcgogues]

Yeah the left does screw its self its a joke.

[TalkShow Bob]

I would say the Labour party, Lib Dems and Greens have enough difference to be seperate parties. However, on my regional list for Holyrood I could choose between Solidarity, Scottish Socialist Party and Socialist Labour Party which was very silly.

[Ed209]

What nobody ever mentions in the Scottish independence debate is that if there was a referendum in the rest/whole of the UK on whether Scotland should 'cede from the union' then English voters (i can't say how they'd vote in Wales or NI) would, i believe, opt overwhelmingly for Scottish independence. I don't know anyone here in England that wants to maintain Scotland as part of the same entity as England.

[diddly-dee]

Really? Wow! That's a very different view to my impressions of what would happen. I would say on the whole the English a overwhelmingly pro union.

[diddly-dee]

I totaly dissagree. Wales and the England are too intertwined, its only the fringe of Plaid that push for independence. Even the most ardent Plaid supports I know dont think Independence is the right route for Wales. When I lived in the mid wales Plaid hartlands people there cared about culture (welsh language, music, rugby ect) but not political/legal sepeartion.

[TalkShow Bob]

Hmmm, fair enough, the Nats I know are not quite Meibion Glyndwr but they are aspirational towards if not total independence then at least something approaching what the Basque Country has in Spain (parliament with tax raising powers, their own administrative offices at the EU, ability to decide on 'bank holidays' etc. and suchlike) with a greater deegree of independence and identity to that currently in evidence. I do, however, still think that there would be more support for those kind of aspirations if there wasn't the language issue acting as a dividing factor. I mean, someone born in Scotland to English (or wherever) parents can much more easily adopt Scottishness and Scottish identity but i think it's a bit different in Wales (especially in Welsh speaking areas). Whilst I really don't mean this in an inflammatory way at all, and i'm not trolling or trying to wind-up non-Welsh speaking Welsh people and this is only my experience and isn't necessarily reflective of the wider situation, but having spoken to Welsh speakers in 'Welsh Wales' (Gwynedd) then they don't really consider non-Cymraeg speakers to be 'proper' Welsh (to appropriate the term 'plastic scouser', it's like a 'plastic Welsh' perception) simply by virtue of them not being able to speak the language.

[feral chile]

Hmmm, fair enough, the Nats I know are not quite Meibion Glyndwr but they are aspirational towards if not total independence then at least something approaching what the Basque Country has in Spain (parliament with tax raising powers, their own administrative offices at the EU, ability to decide on 'bank holidays' etc. and suchlike) with a greater deegree of independence and identity to that currently in evidence. I do, however, still think that there would be more support for those kind of aspirations if there wasn't the language issue acting as a dividing factor. I mean, someone born in Scotland to English (or wherever) parents can much more easily adopt Scottishness and Scottish identity but i think it's a bit different in Wales (especially in Welsh speaking areas). Whilst I really don't mean this in an inflammatory way at all, and i'm not trolling or trying to wind-up non-Welsh speaking Welsh people and this is only my experience and isn't necessarily reflective of the wider situation, but having spoken to Welsh speakers in 'Welsh Wales' (Gwynedd) then they don't really consider non-Cymraeg speakers to be 'proper' Welsh (to appropriate the term 'plastic scouser', it's like a 'plastic Welsh' perception) simply by virtue of them not being able to speak the language.

Edited May 11, 2011 by feral chile

[Kyelo]

If Scotland gained independence the UK would then have to take a step back with regards to military, diplomacy and politics on an international scale. England, Wales and NI simply wouldn't have the same clout.

[diddly-dee]

If Scotland gained independence the UK would then have to take a step back with regards to military, diplomacy and politics on an international scale. England, Wales and NI simply wouldn't have the same clout.

[TalkShow Bob]

If Scotland gained independence the UK would then have to take a step back with regards to military, diplomacy and politics on an international scale. England, Wales and NI simply wouldn't have the same clout.

Edited May 11, 2011 by TalkShow Bob

[diddly-dee]

This is the most intresting (from my perspective) part of this. What will happen with the UKs IR/Treat Obligations/Nuclear Wepons. The vast majority of our nuclear infrastructure (wepon wise) is in Scotland so do they get to keep them? Will England, Wales and Northenr Ireland stay as The UK and keep all the treaty obligations? If this happens will Scotland be able to stay in the EU or will they have to reapply for membership? What happens to our place as one of the perminant members of the security council? ect ect ect

[Kyelo]

Which, given the majority of foreign policy decisions made by the UK from Suez 1956 onwards, I think would be a good thing for both Britain and the rest of the world.

[diddly-dee]

This is the most intresting (from my perspective) part of this. What will happen with the UKs IR/Treat Obligations/Nuclear Wepons. The vast majority of our nuclear infrastructure (wepon wise) is in Scotland so do they get to keep them? Will England, Wales and Northenr Ireland stay as The UK and keep all the treaty obligations? If this happens will Scotland be able to stay in the EU or will they have to reapply for membership? What happens to our place as one of the perminant members of the security council? ect ect ect

[Kowalski]

I can't believe someone is comparing the Proclaimers to Jedward. Jesus wept.

[diddly-dee]

I can't believe someone is comparing the Proclaimers to Jedward. Jesus wept.