Pig FLu

[Funkfarley]

Toilet Duck...

Are you really clever or do you suffer from Centragoogle Force like I do?

[Ed209]

Not true at all Neil I'm afraid....Generally, the new flu strains that evolve every year do so by what is know as "antigenic drift", ie, their haemagglutinin (a big sticky thing on the surface of the virus that allows it to infect cells, and remember without a cell to infect a virus is pretty much not even alive), mutates by rearranging itself and results in a slightly different version (hence they make a new vaccine every year when they see what the prevalent strain is). Prior exposure to a variant of the same virus will allow healthy people to have a degree of immunity so they don't get particularly bad infections with this type of virus (just some aches and pains as your body fights it off), whereas those who are eldery or very young need to get a shot to help them along.

The major pandemics that have killed millions of people worldwide have occurred through "antigenic shift", which is when the virus aquires an entirely new haemagglutinin molecule through recombining with flu strains from another species (hence pigs act as a vessel for human and avian flu strains to mix since they can be infected by both). In china, pigs and ducks are farmed together and many of the major new flu strains have come from there (Asian Flu)...anyway, this type of new strain is particularly virulent (nasty!) and nobody has any immunity to it. It is typically fatal not in the eldery and the newborn or malnourished like normal flu strains, but in young healthy people since the believed mechanism of death is via a "cytokine storm" (cytokines are substances produced by your immune system to tell your white blood cells what to do, a call to arms if you will). Too much and your body literally instructs your own white blood cells to kill you. The elderly and the newborn don't have strong enough immune systems to generate this response so they are usually ok...

It is the high level of fatality in young health people in mexico that has WHO freaked out over this epidemic compared to other recent outbreaks since it is a sign that the new strain may have been produced by an antigenic shift which has to potential to lead to a pandemic.

[Toilet Duck]

Toilet Duck...

Are you really clever or do you suffer from Centragoogle Force like I do?

[eFestivals]

It is the high level of fatality in young health people in mexico that has WHO freaked out over this epidemic compared to other recent outbreaks since it is a sign that the new strain may have been produced by an antigenic shift which has to potential to lead to a pandemic.

perspective is everything.

How many people *have* the virus in Mexico? A few hundred? A few thousand, or hundreds of thousands?

While it's impossible for anyone to say, I'd go with the hundreds of thousands going by how easy it's been for media outlets to each find themselves a different sufferer of the virus to tell us all how awful it, and the fact that it seems fairly widespread around Mexico. From those huge numbers, the numbers of deaths are comparatively tiny.

And how many people are dying outside of Mexico? To date, zero.

In fact, considering the numbers of people entering and exiting Mexico each day, how small are the numbers of non-Mexican people contracting it? Very.

I'm not trying to pretend that it's a nothing, but it's clearly not going to be a bringer of death at anywhere near the levels of (say) Spanish Flu. Yes, I'm aware that it's a different time with far better nutrition for people in general and healthcare facilities and perhaps (even probably) that's why. The point is that it's already clear that it's not going to be anything like as severe a problem.

WHO say that there's a risk of up-to 40% of the British population getting the virus over a six-month period - which in fact translates as pretty low levels: about 2% of the UK population at any one time (that is, if it reaches pandemic levels). 'Standard' flu sees a greater number infected in the UK at any one time, and that causes death in the UK at possibly a higher level than is happening with this.

And what's important here? This....

"In most cases outside Mexico, people have been only mildly ill and have made a full recovery."

(from here: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/8020676.stm).

While I'm not pretending it's a nothing, I'm also not pretending that it's going to kill us all or even many.

[TomfromStroud]

[sammysundae]

that is absolutely amazing!

[sammysundae]

get that man a medal!

[beamends]

I suspect that the general health of the population also needs to be considered. I don't know what the status of the people in Mexico was (poor, wealthy, both?) but I'm sure comparing the 1918 pandemic to now is not a straight numbers thing. I suspect that the general health of the UK population is rather better than it was then, which must have at least some effect on the outcome of catching the disease . Also, of course, remember that, as of this morning anyway, no one outside Mexico has died - I'm sure that must be significant too.

[Toilet Duck]

And what's important here? This....

"In most cases outside Mexico, people have been only mildly ill and have made a full recovery."

(from here: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/8020676.stm).

While I'm not pretending it's a nothing, I'm also not pretending that it's going to kill us all or even many.

[eFestivals]

I suspect that the general health of the population also needs to be considered. I don't know what the status of the people in Mexico was (poor, wealthy, both?) but I'm sure comparing the 1918 pandemic to now is not a straight numbers thing. I suspect that the general health of the UK population is rather better than it was then, which must have at least some effect on the outcome of catching the disease . Also, of course, remember that, as of this morning anyway, no one outside Mexico has died - I'm sure that must be significant too.

I reckon you're spot on with this!

Now we know far more about 'healthy living', and on top of that have far better treatments available even before a specific drug is formulated to deal with this latest virus.

[Funkfarley]

@ Toilet duck..

Hats off to you mate! You obviously know your stuff...

There was me womdering if you had just spent hours reading wikipedia!

[Chickenburger]

its in pretty bad taste to be laughing about something which is causing hundreds to die, what next shall we all bust out the hillsborough gags and discuss hitlers stand up comedy moments.

[mudmonkey]

I am forecasting an "I am Legend" scenario, where I am at Worthy Farm as pretty much the only person left alive. A few of the infected will be gathered in the dark tents of Orange chill 'n' charge, but I have used all the firewood on site to protect myself from them.

I will arrange some of the dead bands on stage, and take full control of the sounds and lighting systems myself.

Best of all I can loot from every stall, so help myself to the cider bus all day long, and pop around the site picking up whatever other culinary delights I fancy.

And there will be no queues for the car parks, to get in, or for the toilets.

It's going to be brilliant, hope one or two of you survive to enjoy it with me.

[Ed209]

its in pretty bad taste to be laughing about something which is causing hundreds to die, what next shall we all bust out the hillsborough gags and discuss hitlers stand up comedy moments.

[beamends]

its in pretty bad taste to be laughing about something which is causing hundreds to die, what next shall we all bust out the hillsborough gags and discuss hitlers stand up comedy moments.

[Filthy]

I am forecasting an "I am Legend" scenario, where I am at Worthy Farm as pretty much the only person left alive. A few of the infected will be gathered in the dark tents of Orange chill 'n' charge, but I have used all the firewood on site to protect myself from them.

I will arrange some of the dead bands on stage, and take full control of the sounds and lighting systems myself.

Best of all I can loot from every stall, so help myself to the cider bus all day long, and pop around the site picking up whatever other culinary delights I fancy.

And there will be no queues for the car parks, to get in, or for the toilets.

It's going to be brilliant, hope one or two of you survive to enjoy it with me.

[Tugger2k]

It's what the British do. In the face of adversity you have the choice to either laugh or cry. Mercifully, we send ourselves, and others, up something rotten even in the worst times - far better than worrying ourselves silly. Not everyone gets it, but then we don't have crocodile tears all over the TV - there's nothing worse than designer sympathy like they have in the US.

[arcade fireman]

I'm more worried about wine flu the morning after a night at the wine bar myself...

[Katster]

I wondered how long this thread would take to appear. Not long.

[freehugs!]

I prefer a dead set scenario where it properly hits the rest of the country while we're there. Some boarding up of the gateways of the superfence and we get to stay at glasto til it all blows over

[Blueboy78]

Am i just being a bit sad thinking the way things are goin there might not be no glastonbury this year

[emmmmma]

Am i just being a bit sad thinking the way things are goin there might not be no glastonbury this year

[joelovesleeds!]

Am i just being a bit sad thinking the way things are goin there might not be no glastonbury this year

[Blueboy78]

good good just really would get me annoyed as it is goin be my first glastonbury this year

hopefully this flu thing will sort itself out

[Katster]