Weather thread 2010

[al_coholic]

We have had a sodding monsoon in Telford this afternoon, dont know if it was predicted or not but I hope we dont have rain like this at Glasto the place would be a mud bath in a couple of hours

[LintonG]

The weather in Glastonbury is looking great for next weekend..... would anyone object if we move the festival forward one week???

[William of Walworth]

Post mainly for the nerdy weather geeks on all this.

For what it's worth, the UK Met Offices's modelling is significantly more pessimistic (only relatively so, mind!) for the week startuibg 21st June, than are the other models -- GFS and ECM, whic still look better and more High!

Experts/geeks over on the Netweather forums (the general Model Output Discussion thread I mean) are refusing to commit themselves, but still sseem quite tentatively to predict High Pressure remaining close enough to the West of the UK after next weekend for dry conditions to dominate.

On the Glasto Netweather thread, JACKONE reports tonight that he's had PC problems today and won't be able to update his detailed forecast until tomorrow

The pain of uncertainty! My bum remains very squeaky ...

[mouth]

i was feeling quite upbeat about the weather today. looking forward to jackones update tomorrow.

[godders1966]

The Met Office latest sounds reasonably good to me...

UK Outlook for Friday 18 Jun 2010 to Sunday 27 Jun 2010:

For the start of the period up to the beginning of the new week, it should be largely dry for most areas of the UK, with variable cloud and sunny periods. The exception being some occasional cloud and light rain at times in the far north, and some light showers in eastern parts, perhaps extending to other areas for a time. Feeling warm in any prolonged sunshine, especially further south and west in light winds. Temperatures should be near or above normal, however, feeling cooler on northern and eastern coasts with a fresh north or northeasterly breeze. Conditions perhaps turning a little more unsettled for most parts later next week and into the weekend, with spells of rain or showers. Temperatures are expected to remain near or slightly above normal.

Updated: 1204 on Sun 13 Jun 2010

[Familiar2billions]

http://theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/forregdaily.aspx?postcode=Glastonbury&selected=0

Starting to look good

Keep your fingers crossed people!

[sprocketrocket]

The Netweather charts are looking reasonable too. All we need now is for france to give us a gentle fingering and we'll be sorted. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

[devonhammer]

Lot's more data coming in now.

ECM(typically pretty reliable): Wednesday dry , Thursday dry

GFS(the source for every internet weather site): Wednesday dry , Thursday dry with chance of light overnight showers:), Friday dry , Saturday dry , Sunday dry

Met Office: Some showers

Norwegian Weather Service: Wednesday dry

All in all, pretty good. Met Office only do accurate forecasts for 5 days, so I wouldn't be too concerned. We're still sitting between rain to the North and rain to the South, but that's been a trend for the forecasts for some time now, so grounds for optimism. It looks like it will be cool, but I don't mind that.

Remember that GFS supply data for all internet weather sites except national met offices (and the EU's ECM). ECM and Norweigan Weather Service are only just getting in range, so we'll get an extra day's prediction each day nearer. I've only recently discovered the Norwegian Weather Service - if anyone knows of any other national weather service sites that are accurate, I'd be interested.

[devonhammer]

The Netweather charts are looking reasonable too. All we need now is for france to give us a gentle fingering and we'll be sorted. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

[gibbo13]

Lot's more data coming in now.

ECM(typically pretty reliable): Wednesday dry , Thursday dry

GFS(the source for every internet weather site): Wednesday dry , Thursday dry with chance of light overnight showers:), Friday dry , Saturday dry , Sunday dry

Met Office: Some showers

Norwegian Weather Service: Wednesday dry

All in all, pretty good. Met Office only do accurate forecasts for 5 days, so I wouldn't be too concerned. We're still sitting between rain to the North and rain to the South, but that's been a trend for the forecasts for some time now, so grounds for optimism. It looks like it will be cool, but I don't mind that.

Remember that GFS supply data for all internet weather sites except national met offices (and the EU's ECM). ECM and Norweigan Weather Service are only just getting in range, so we'll get an extra day's prediction each day nearer. I've only recently discovered the Norwegian Weather Service - if anyone knows of any other national weather service sites that are accurate, I'd be interested.

Edited June 14, 2010 by gibbo13

[scorp]

unisys charts continue to show a high pressure-influenced run .

http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/9panel/gfsx_500p_9panel_eur.html

the odd showery interlude from the north can't be ruled out but because pilton/glastonbury are well west, they are nearer to the high pressure so any showers may be ... er... empty of rain at least into Thursday. nights will be nippy, but that's quite common at glastonbury festival.

[devonhammer]

good to have you back hammer.

based on what we can see now, are we in a position to rule out a repeat of 2007?? or am i being to optimistic..too early?

[3puddings]

I'll stick on Accuweather's offerings right now!!

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/forecast-15day.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&postalcode=BA6 8AE&metric=1

[Wooderson]

8 days before I fly out to Somerset theres still no consensus.

I love these threads but they rarely put me in good humour.

[Buddhafish]

8 days before I fly out to Somerset theres still no consensus.

I love these threads but they rarely put me in good humour.

[puppetmode]

+1 on the 'rarely put me in good humour'. I won't relax until I'm actually on site with my flip flops and speedos on, and all the wet weather gear is at the bottom of my rucksack.

[Buddhafish]

Is this not wet weather gear???

[glastofever]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

Updated this morning from BBC weather

[Breeze]

The Unisys rain forecast is looking good Wed/Thu at the moment! Unisys Rain 9 day plot

In a few days the rest of the fest will be 'in range' for this forecast, which has been pretty accurate in previous years.

Edited June 14, 2010 by Breeze

[Mr Ploppy]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

Updated this morning from BBC weather

[gibbo13]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

Updated this morning from BBC weather

[dirk4danger]

far to much talk of sh***rs, r**n and cl**d in the week of glasto...

[rischbrit]

The Unisys rain forecast is looking good Wed/Thu at the moment! Unisys Rain 9 day plot

In a few days the rest of the fest will be 'in range' for this forecast, which has been pretty accurate in previous years.

[clockworkpurple]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

Updated this morning from BBC weather

[dirk4danger]

In fact, latest GFS has a dribbling of rain throughout with very heavy rain Sunday afternoon.

If that comes off it would be like a 2007 / 2005 combo.

The GFS data is used for most of the forecasts so I would expect them to start reflecting the above over the next few hours.