Where's our weather thread?

[mjs]

Erm, doesn't that 'couple of weeks after this week's warmth' take us right up to actual Glasto weekend, ie after the gates have opened??

Edited June 4, 2007 by mjs

[William of Walworth]

My ideal High Pressure zone would be with the centre fixed and immobile somewhere 40 miles SW of the Isles of Scilly. From May to September ....

Edited June 4, 2007 by William of Walworth

[Late]

http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/14days.asp

Now showing the first day of the festival, looks like showers on the Wednesday at the moment.

Late

[stevieweevil]

http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/14days.asp

Now showing the first day of the festival, looks like showers on the Wednesday at the moment.

Late

[mjs]

After looking at the computer models today, it looks like the predicted breakdown of this warm weather which was due towards the end of this week has been put further back. Lets hope it's a trend and we are moving into a different pattern just in time for the start of the festival!

[Late]

Looks like thunder storms are forcast for Download this weekend. At least at Glasto most people are prepaired for bad weather, reakon most of the people at Download wont be.

Late

[cavelier5]

I am trying my best to adjust my mindset to the fact that it will rain and be muddy, and that anything beyond that will be a bonus.

Whatever the forecast and whichever predicting models are used we all know that nothing can be predicted with any kind of certainty until 4 or 5 days before. Although the main drive of this thread is for people like me to hang on every word of Willam of Walsworth and mjs in the vain hope that they will assure us all that it'll be assuredly and undoubtedly gorgeous for the whole five/six days.

Next week will be the cruical week I reckon. Basing this on no science at all, but the longer this good weather goes on the more the weather Gods will spit upon Glasto. It needs to piss it down NOW for a few days, so that come the 22nd we are due sun. My gut feeling is that it will be fine, or at least better than last time - odds are that there can't be such freakish conditions again (same goes for 97 and 98). We must be due a 1995 type sun fest!

[ILIKEWALLS]

it needs to start raining abit before, as the problem was last time it was really hot leading up to it and the ground dried out and the water had nowhere to go and thats why there were floods, rather than just a general muddyness...

[William of Walworth]

After looking at the computer models today, it looks like the predicted breakdown of this warm weather which was due towards the end of this week has been put further back. Lets hope it's a trend and we are moving into a different pattern just in time for the start of the festival!

[William of Walworth]

Next week will be the cruical week I reckon. Basing this on no science at all, but the longer this good weather goes on the more the weather Gods will spit upon Glasto. It needs to piss it down NOW for a few days, so that come the 22nd we are due sun. My gut feeling is that it will be fine, or at least better than last time - odds are that there can't be such freakish conditions again (same goes for 97 and 98). We must be due a 1995 type sun fest!

[stevieweevil]

I wish glasto was this upcoming weekend!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/5day.shtml?id=1136

[mjs]

That's dangerously optimistic.

Don't really understand the logic of it, either. We want this nice weather now to break down as soon as possible (OK, possibly avoiding the IoW festie and Dowload -- next Monday then?)

Get the shite weather over ASAP, so as to recover again in time for a fortnight tomorrow! Last thing we want is a prolonged warm sunny spell now that breaks down just ahead of the start of Glasto! That would be insanely frustrating ...

Oh, and IGNORE METCHECK -- track record of ultra pessimism, and guesses disguised as 'forecasts' , as long as your arm. But much more a matter of the Metcheckers (who are on drugs) relying on past patterns/statistical probabilities.

I suggest that Netweather, however pessimistic, is preferred over Metcheck ...

[stevieweevil]

LOL! Just telling it as i see it William. It's not beyond the realms of possiblity that we get a prolonged spell of warm weather from the setup we are in right now - this warm weather initially was meant to over by the weekend, but now, it's progged to go on into next week...trend?

Now wheres Steve Murr when you need him?

[Chemical Woody]

hello hello

I've been lurking too long. I wonder if someone can actually answer the question we're all kind of implicitly asking?

Ignoring the law of averages / fate etc argments for a bit, is there actually any meterological evidence that a prolonged period of good weather / high pressure makes it increasingly MORE likely with time that bad weather will push in? In other words, do the weather systems work like a kind of equilibrium, where hot weather (high pressure) here in the UK "pulls in" bad weather (low pressure) from America?

If so, I agree with WoW that we need the bad weather now, so we can start at the bottom of the curve again.

OR is low pressure just as likely to decide to sweep the country at any time it likes, regardless of what's going on here? In that case why not let's just hope for a scorcher all the way through June... (especially since it's my 30th on Saturday and I have a BBQ planned)

[gregsy]

hello hello

I've been lurking too long. I wonder if someone can actually answer the question we're all kind of implicitly asking?

Ignoring the law of averages / fate etc argments for a bit, is there actually any meterological evidence that a prolonged period of good weather / high pressure makes it increasingly MORE likely with time that bad weather will push in? In other words, do the weather systems work like a kind of equilibrium, where hot weather (high pressure) here in the UK "pulls in" bad weather (low pressure) from America?

If so, I agree with WoW that we need the bad weather now, so we can start at the bottom of the curve again.

OR is low pressure just as likely to decide to sweep the country at any time it likes, regardless of what's going on here? In that case why not let's just hope for a scorcher all the way through June... (especially since it's my 30th on Saturday and I have a BBQ planned)

[ollyrag]

I seam to recall that every fallow year has been Scortchio around Glasto time.

Why is it that ?

Evidence is 1996, 2001, 2006

[Magma]

Last year wasn't. It rained a bit and was generally dull.

[ollyrag]

Last year wasn't. It rained a bit and was generally dull.

[William of Walworth]

Was that true in Somerset Magma? I recall it was a lovely would-be Glasto weekend in London in 2006!

In answer to Chemical Woody, I haven't got an authorative answer, but when we are in need of hot weather lasting for 3 weeks, we have to have pretty strong indications (which we currenrly DON'T!) that the relevant High Pressure will hang around that long. Past summer precedent, except in very unsual prolonged-heatwave years, suggest that that kind of lasting stability is VERY unusual -- particularly as early as June.

So go with the 'can it go shite next week please then recover afterwards?' preference, I'd say ...

Trouble is, if it goes shite, it may STAY shite ... the risks we take!

[mjs]

it would be pretty unusual for this settled warm weather to last a further 3 weeks wouldn't it?

i'm in agreement that it needs to go all wrong sometime next week and then start picking up again in time for the 20th.

[Magma]

Was that true in Somerset Magma? I recall it was a lovely would-be Glasto weekend in London in 2006!

In answer to Chemical Woody, I haven't got an authorative answer, but when we are in need of hot weather lasting for 3 weeks, we have to have pretty strong indications (which we currenrly DON'T!) that the relevant High Pressure will hang around that long. Past summer precedent, except in very unsual prolonged-heatwave years, suggest that that kind of lasting stability is VERY unusual -- particularly as early as June.

So go with the 'can it go shite next week please then recover afterwards?' preference, I'd say ...

Trouble is, if it goes shite, it may STAY shite ... the risks we take!

[ollyrag]

Was that true in Somerset Magma? I recall it was a lovely would-be Glasto weekend in London in 2006!

[swankyjohn]

I have a feeling its going to be hot. I have been twice with my wife - both nice hot dry years(although she hadnt attached the ball and chain at that point) and then twice without (2004 and 2005...nuff said)since she was left at home with the little one.... this year hes going to his grannies for the weekend so Jo is coming and therefore its going to be hot and DRY.

I said it before and I will say it again..all i care about is that its dry and we have minimal rain, glasto is so much better when you can have a lounge on the grass

Edited June 5, 2007 by swankyjohn

[William of Walworth]

/index.php?showtopic=63386&st=0">http://www.efestivals.co.uk/forums/index.p...=63386&st=0

Showers to start and then Dry/Cloudy/Sunny Spells with a few hours of rain on Sunday. Generally dull may have been unfair, but it certainly wasn't a scorcher and wasn't totally dry.

Edited June 5, 2007 by William of Walworth

[William of Walworth]

I did say warm spell not necessarily a settled one! Don't get me wrong i'm not forecasting a 3 week long heatwave and unbroken sunshine, i'm just highlighting the change i've noticed in the computer model output during the past week. Careful what you wish for tho...sometimes it's not so easy to get out of a more active period of weather...just look at May!