WEATHER 2009 !

[hairofthedog]

Outlook for Days 6 - 10 (Tuesday 23/06/09 to Saturday 27/06/09)

Generally fine and dry with sunny spells as high pressure sits to the southwest. Mainly light winds and generally warm or very warm. High confidence initially, dropping to moderate confidence later in the period.

Works forecast from the Met Office this morning. Looking good, but still early days.

[steve murr]

Morning All-

SO things becoming a little clearer today.........

Next Week the West & sw become the place to be as Pressure builds to the west of the UK, the initial prognosis of a Large area of high Pressure building up & blocking the atlantic wasnt quite correct in as much as it isnt looking quite as pronouced as before-

Where I highlighed that the weather systems would be forced around the edges towards France & Iceland, because of the weaker high these systems can erode into the high a little easier-

Instead of a large round high we look like getting a flatter 'pancake' high-

THe net result for this is on the northern & more importantly Southern flanks the 'squeeze' between pressure zones will create a keen Easterly Wind across the South of the UK-

THe west of the UK will always be a little sheltered from this wind & indeed the showers that are being blown westwards in off the North Sea, What we have to be mindful of is how close Glasto is to the South Coast, & will probably be more exposed than some other parts of western UK-

With a timeline of 7 days till the main opening of the festival theres still a chance that this high pressure gets erodes from the south a little more, which would be unfortunate as the festival could be plagued by low cloud & mist- in a keen ESE Wind-

temps look like being around 20c at this stage-

As it stands though score is sitting@ 6.5/7 confidence still low 70's

S

Edited June 18, 2009 by steve murr

[Pete G]

Outlook for Days 6 - 10 (Tuesday 23/06/09 to Saturday 27/06/09)

Generally fine and dry with sunny spells as high pressure sits to the southwest. Mainly light winds and generally warm or very warm. High confidence initially, dropping to moderate confidence later in the period.

Works forecast from the Met Office this morning. Looking good, but still early days.

[Cooter]

I'm a tad confused with regards to these lowish but comfortable temperatures forcast for next week. All forecasters are bigging the hotness up but wheres the high temps? Are they just being over-cautious at the mo or what? 20 to 23 degrees is more than fine by me but we've had much hotter periods this year already. Is Jackone secretly holding a 9 or maybe even a 10 grading for nearer the time?

BUT bear in mind 20 to 23ish will feel more like high 20's to 30 in some areas of the festival, so if they shoot up to heatwave style we're all going to burn in a cauldron of pleasure and paradise!

[just-spence]

this may have been pointed out before but for those who have an i phone there is a free accuweather app that gives 15 day weather guesses its pretty cool although it is a usa based app .

[dirk4danger]

Please all read what Steve Murr writes above. He knows what he is talking about and is analysing the latest model data.

All these websites people are pointing to are just re-hashing one set of model data or another and are out of date already.

In recent days I am afraid to say that the situation has changed. The most recent data points to a less setlled spell of weather with lower temperatures.

PLEASE READ THE STORY STEVE WEAVE(S). IT IS THE BEST UPDATE YOU'LL GET TILL JACKONE TONIGHT.

[steve murr]

Please all read what Steve Murr writes above. He knows what he is talking about and is analysing the

PLEASE READ THE STORY STEVE WEAVE(S). IT IS THE BEST UPDATE YOU'LL GET TILL JACKONE TONIGHT.

[Glastonbury_2011]

Many thanks..........

S

[oafc0000]

Your forecast is a little downbeat Steve. Me no happy no more.

[evansonuk]

Weather will be just fine - i promise!!!

[steve murr]

Your forecast is a little downbeat Steve. Me no happy no more.

[scorp]

we've had steve murr's cool easterlies in glastos gone by [1990s at least] and the days in fact can be quite nice - sunny and not too warm. today's unisys 9-day panel chart, however, points to summat sweltering later next week. the final 2 panels [for sat and sun] shows a low pressure incursion into the hot air.

http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/9panel/gfsx...9panel_eur.html

"if" [and it is an if at this stage] that happens expect a clap or four. and maybe some forks or sheets. and some drops but not kendal black drop :-)

[scorp]

Well, Maybe not downbeat..- With things changing theres now more chance of the disurbed weather reaching the SW...

We 'shouldnt' see persistent rain or a mud fest- the level of confidence for that not happening is very high... Its how good the weather can actually get ....

Initially it looked to start warm settled sunny weather, now it swings between a forecast of Sunny warm weather with a cooling Easterly breeze- to Persistent low cloud + mist in a cold South Easterly-

People watching the models want to hope for a Wind coming through the mainland, NOT off the channel...

S

[mal73]

Morning All-

SO things becoming a little clearer today.........

Next Week the West & sw become the place to be

Edited June 18, 2009 by mal73

[titch juicy]

Well, Maybe not downbeat..- With things changing theres now more chance of the disurbed weather reaching the SW...

We 'shouldnt' see persistent rain or a mud fest- the level of confidence for that not happening is very high... Its how good the weather can actually get ....

Initially it looked to start warm settled sunny weather, now it swings between a forecast of Sunny warm weather with a cooling Easterly breeze- to Persistent low cloud + mist in a cold South Easterly-

People watching the models want to hope for a Wind coming through the mainland, NOT off the channel...

S

[Aragorn]

Well, Maybe not downbeat..- With things changing theres now more chance of the disurbed weather reaching the SW...

We 'shouldnt' see persistent rain or a mud fest- the level of confidence for that not happening is very high... Its how good the weather can actually get ....

Initially it looked to start warm settled sunny weather, now it swings between a forecast of Sunny warm weather with a cooling Easterly breeze- to Persistent low cloud + mist in a cold South Easterly-

People watching the models want to hope for a Wind coming through the mainland, NOT off the channel...

S

[William of Walworth]

I'm a tad pissed off by that 06z Aragorn, I REALLY hope it's an outlier for the end of the festival, and that revised updates manage to settle things back down to more settled throughout. It's frustrating, because we'll be so close to that High Pressure still, all it has to do is get a tad more stubborn and stay closer ...

Steve's updated forecast is very welcome, and by no means bad, but I think he may be just a little too pessimistic on the chance of low cloud/mist -- as scorp said, with Easterly winds, this ought to be less prevalent in the West.

Waiting on the Met Office's update with baited breath, should be with us within the next half hour ...

[Bagpuss007]

Waiting on the Met Office's update with baited breath, should be with us within the next half hour ...

Edited June 18, 2009 by Bagpuss007

[sinhala]

Latest from the Met Office is a bit non-committal :-

UK Outlook for Tuesday 23 Jun 2009 to Thursday 2 Jul 2009:

High pressure dominates the weather for the last week or so of June bringing plenty of fine, dry and sunny conditions across the UK once initial rain in Scotland clears. Winds will be light to moderate, leading to cooling sea breezes on many coasts. However, the high pressure is expected to gradually decline away to the northeast near the end of the month, and showers may develop across some southern and southeastern parts of England. Fine and dry conditions with spells of sunshine should continue though across Scotland and Northern Ireland. Temperatures will be warm or very warm at first, especially across inland central and southern Britain at first, falling closer to normal across eastern and southern parts later.

Updated: 1213 on Thu 18 Jun 2009

[Granty]

I'm a tad pissed off by that 06z Aragorn, I REALLY hope it's an outlier for the end of the festival, and that revised updates manage to settle things back down to more settled throughout. It's frustrating, because we'll be so close to that High Pressure still, all it has to do is get a tad more stubborn and stay closer ...

Steve's updated forecast is very welcome, and by no means bad, but I think he may be just a little too pessimistic on the chance of low cloud/mist -- as scorp said, with Easterly winds, this ought to be less prevalent in the West.

Waiting on the Met Office's update with baited breath, should be with us within the next half hour ...

[scorp]

Hiyah Steve

I certainly do not like the look of the 06z run for the week-end of glasto, its bringing that low right in from the atlantic

[William of Walworth]

Yesterday on Netweather at least one regular poster, an experienced forecaster, was predicting no more than a 10% chance of showers late next week, that Met Office update looks like an upgrade to that unfortunately.

You know what? One year, just one year, I'd like a CERTAIN warm sunny scorcher confidently and unchangingly and reliably predicted for the entire of Glastonbury week.

I know the forecast remains pretty damned good in general, especially for the start, so I shouldn't moan because we're certainly not in for a 2007. But we're OWED a unbrokenly dry sunny and good one throughout, and I'm fearful of the risk of further downgrades in later updates ...

06z might be an outlier (still looks quite like one for now) but on the other hand it might be picking up on a new trend

I have one more day, tomorrow morning (Friday) to gather updates. We're off to Glastonbury town on Saturday and onsite from Monday as early-arrival Info Crew (our tickets arrived this morning ).

After Saturday, I'm reliant on paolo999's gadgetsery for updates ...

Edited June 18, 2009 by William of Walworth

[sdaveak47]

Yeah thats deffo an outlier

sorry i just wanted to do a post with the word outlier in it

wheres i like rain guy anyway has he done one ?

[William of Walworth]

wheres i like rain guy anyway has he done one ?

Edited June 18, 2009 by William of Walworth

[devonhammer]

wheres i like rain guy anyway has he done one ?