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Gavin Schmidt of Nasa scratching his head: "For the past nine months, mean land and sea surface temperatures have overshot previous records each month by up to 0.2 °C — a huge margin at the planetary scale. A general warming trend is expected because of rising greenhouse-gas emissions, but this sudden heat spike greatly exceeds predictions made by statistical climate models that rely on past observations. Many reasons for this discrepancy have been proposed but, as yet, no combination of them has been able to reconcile our theories with what has happened.. ....If the anomaly does not stabilize by August — a reasonable expectation based on previous El Niño events — then the world will be in uncharted territory. It could imply that a warming planet is already fundamentally altering how the climate system operates, much sooner than scientists had anticipated. It could also mean that statistical inferences based on past events are less reliable than we thought, adding more uncertainty to seasonal predictions of droughts and rainfall patterns.." https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00816-z
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Global mean temps have been quite astonishing since last year Troposphere temps are likely peaking now though - the usual 3-4 month lag since peak El Nino in December. How far temps will fall back in the coming year as El Nino melts away is the next interesting.
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Feel like I'm going to have so many questions over the next couple weeks so apologies in advance!! We usually take a little stove to boil water on a morning, is it worth it for just me or will I be able to easily get hot water in the Oxfield? Gonna do everything possible to arrive Monday, but if I can't get there until Tuesday mid morning what would the space situation be? Enough for my little F&B tent?? Also wouldn't mind some recommendations for decent snacks to take on shift (as someone who is literally always hungry) 😄
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