DeanoL

There were some years where at this point we'd be celebrating the only wash out was going to be the Sunday, because one day of mud is fine...

Not sure where you are looking but I got a £10 PAYG SIM from the site here: https://www.vodafone.co.uk/mobile/best-sim-only-deals/pay-as-you-go-sim

Fair enough, gotta be some pro-Nuke folk out there I guess!

Very happy for him!

Tech is going to get cheaper, secured post is going to get more expensive. Eventually we will reach a tipping point.

Mate, I'm sorry for every bad word I've ever said to/about your behaviour on this thread - because you vanish from this thread for a day and it becomes "it's almost certainly going to be hot every year". I didn't think this thread needed someone telling people constantly it was going to be an apocalypse, but bizarrely, it does.

I didn't weigh in with anything about average temperatures! Someone asked for a source on "average number of UK days over 25C Max is 11" and I provide a link to the MET office site that has the dataset. You then took the pretty graph on the front page of that, which had nothing to do with the data I was talking about, pasted it here, and started a discussion with me over it and global warming. You bought that graph up, not me! Like, sometimes, when people link to a website, they're not talking about the pictures! The point I was trying to make: it's not uncommon, but statistically it happens less than half the time. So there will be more cases when it doesn't that when it does. Meanwhile, chance of rain is much higher, and there's loads of "no frelling rain, no frelling compromise" folk on here. Which, given that, I thought it was really unfair for you to call out a guy who said he didn't like it when it was 25C and say maybe he shouldn't be going to the festival. I mean, yeah, okay, you have a point. But why not direct that same statement at everyone panicking about the rain. 'Cause there's plenty more to choose from. And it applies in just the same way. If you can't handle a bit of rain and mud, UK festivals in June are not for you either. Because that happens a lot too. But it's easier to pile on the guy that doesn't like the heat because he's in the minority. And that's why you did it. And that, to me, seemed unfair. So I was just trying to show that actually,statistically, he's far more likely to get his wish than the NFR crowd. And that, amazingly, we're romanticising Glasto weather a bit.

Pulled the data for the past 20 years and did a quick analysis, if you're interested. So yeah if you look back recently, you're seeing higher numbers for sure. But then you have a run of far fewer days as recently as 2014-2017. Then 2018 has twice as many as the years that follow. While 2006 and 2003 had more than any year since 2018. Funnily enough if you average them, you get 11.75 days, not 11, which is what I sort of guessed. If you want you can average the past ten years and get 13.3, and tell me I'm wrong which, sure. You can win if you want. But hopefully you can see the point that while the numbers are slowly creeping up, there's still huge variance.

No of course not. Europe is a mostly connected land mass so if one country hits a record temperature there's a good chance other countries will hit a record temperature! But you're saying that like it proves some different point. All it proves is that Europe had a heatwave. The 12 different countries aren't all independent measurements. If Belgium is hot, France will probably be hot too. Indeed, what about the 38 other countries in Europe? It's weirder that they *didn't* hit record temperatures. I guess that's just a coincidence too? The temperatures have been consistently rising, yes, but they've also been rising consistently - the rate of increase has stayed steady since around the 70s - if you take *that* rate of increase, and figure what the expected temperature would have been for UK summers the past couple of years, we've been above that expected figure. Here's the thing: there's two options here, and I'm really genuinely curious as to which you think, at which point I can put this to bed. Either: a) you think the current science on global warming is wrong, that we're not seeing a consistent rise in temperature since the 70s, but actually starting in 2016 there's been a huge upward spike, and the colder than average summers of 2021 and 2017 were just anomalies, and UK average temperature is trending much higher than we think, and that the weather last year is the new normal, and global warming is accelerating rapidly That's a fine opinion to have by the way. Not shared by many scientists (but is by some). If that's what you think, sure. b) you think it still varies year by year, and we have warm summers and cold summers, and we've been seeing a consistent rate of increase in temperature since the 70s. In which case I really don't get what we're arguing about.

(I know, it's loads lower and reality the difference will actually be tiny but it makes the point)

At all four of those festivals? Yes. You're just picking a date that makes the stats work well for you. We can go back to 2016, but if we go back any further, well that data is too old because of global warming. Because of course, Glastonbury 2015, 2014, 2013... all cold. Glasto week June 2021, cold. Glasto week 2018, average. But we ignore those because there wasn't a festival those years... Hang on, why? Does the festival being there *make* it hotter? Like I say, it's about 50/50 on if you get at least one hot day or not that weekend in June. For the past few festivals, it's come off. Looks like it will again this year, hurrah for the heat lovers! I appreciate global warming makes things hotter but you can't just look at the past five years and then also skip all the years there wasn't a Glastonbury and declare that a weather trend. It's not. It's coincidence.

Haha, maybe we haven't met before Jose. I certainly don't know Pete. But just to be clear: I *am* one of the forum dickheads. I've been around a long time but never been part of the boys club because I have some quite unpopular opinions, about how the festival should be for everyone and camping chairs are fine as long as people aren't dicks about it and how vaccines are good and that's it's Pulp. The problem being I argue my point vociferously with facts and evidence and that winds up a lot of people no-end. I've probably pissed off most posters here at some point. Good news is, this is my last Glasto so probably my last few weeks on this forum. But to be honest, you're more on track to being the new me than getting into the old boys club at this point 😄

Yes, there's a trend, you can see the dotted trend line in the middle, it's 1.5C hotter on average since 1970. Okay so a 6% increase in temperature. So maybe it's not 11 days anymore then. It's 11 days plus 6%. It's 11.66 days. Let's call it 12 for shits and giggles then. You got me. I was out by a day when equating for the global warming trend. That'll probably change my 48% chance of a festival day being over 25C to 50%. Which you'd already rounded it up to anyway. Obviously the global increase in temperature is a thing that is happening. And we know what level of increase it is at. But the last few summers have been a lot more than 1.5C hotter than average, you can see the spikes on the graphs at the end there. But you can also see spikes in the mid 70s, the mid 90s and the mid 00s, before it drops right back down again. There are many points in that graph where we have had a few hot summers in a row. It doesn't mean that we're going to have that, forever more, and it'll neve spike down again. Like you said "cant you see a trend?" - you can literally see the trend on that graph, it's a dotted line. And that trend is well below the spikes of most of the summers from the past few years. The spikes are just local weather patterns. They are not global warming. It's exact what that graph shows.

Do you actually remember what Trump's position on climate change was? "It's not happening because it's cold outside" https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/29/trump-revives-misleading-claim-its-cold-so-global-warming-isnt-real.html One of us in this conversation has used data and statistics to make their point. The other one has said "well it's been warm the last few summers so it'll be warm this one and every future one because it's getting hotter". You're actually using the exact Trumpian logic, just the other way around. (Global warming is certainly increasing the severity of heat waves, though it's not understood why - thus the average temperature creeps up, but it's not having a huge impact on the number of days above X temperature - which is based on the local weather patterns)

Sometimes, I forget how thick some people on eFests are. But sure, you do you.

Tell me you're a c**t without telling me you're a c**t.

Are you now saying we can't use past weather patterns to predict future ones? Was that your entire point? In that case, yeah we'll have to agree to disagree. We've had a few hot summers in the UK - I absolutely *do* believe that's just a coincidence. You can go back through that data and find other runs of years where you have a bunch of pretty hot summers. It happens. It doesn't make it the norm. I know global warming is a thing, but that accounts for a degree or two. And yes, some people argue that certain knock on factors from that are what's leading to the UK's hot summers over the past few years and that this is the new normal. I actually don't believe that. If you do, then that explains the difference in where we are coming from, I think. I'm not dismissing it, it's an interesting idea, but I'm still of the opinion climate change is something happening more over decades than smaller time periods, and we're just happening to have warm summers.

(It could also be done without the infrastructure. If all you're trying to achieve is a digital system with security equal to that of a paper ticket. An animated, on screen ticket with photo checked at the gate. Steward gives you a code which you enter on to the app that marks the ticket as stubbed, you show the stubbed ticket screen to the wristband person to get your band. That would probably be a bit slower than paper though.)

Thousands a second? There's 20 gates? How fast have you got those stewards working!?

That's true. But the flip side of it is that you'd surely agree most of those hot days tend to happen in July and Early August right? It's a really rough calculation. And yeah 2022 was very hot, doesn't necessarily mean 2023 will be. I mean, so far looks like, but it could just be a miserable cold July and August. Obviously global warming is a thing but we shouldn't confuse steady creep in world temperatures with the abnormally hot few summers we've had the past few years. You have to look at the dataset babes. Not just the pretty picture on the front page. 😄 If you click through to "download" they have Mean, Min and Max data sets which you can then download and put in a spreadsheet or stats program and generate whatever reports you want. All I'm trying to say is I hope it doesn't rain, and I also hope it stays sub-25C all festival. And I know which one of those is most likely to not happen. There is of course, looking at current forecasts, a significant chance of both!

Daily max at HadCET. Source was an article linked in the previous post but the data set is available here if you want to verify for yourself: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/

And an 80% chance it'll rain. So either we're allowed to hope for and post about what weather we would like, and people with either preference are welcome both at the festival and in this thread, or we're not. Which one is it?

Yeah, Worthy Farm and Glastonbury festival. They already do it. Just not out to the gates. You think the Pyramid sounddesk isn't wired up to the Pyramid PA? The stalls all get power from somewhere too.

Fair enough, I find it bizarre we're on the 156th page of people praying it won't rain (which, statistically, it probably will) and then someone comes along and says "I hope it's not 25C+" (which statistically, it won't be) and gets told "the festival is probably not for you". You can certainly tell the people who have been going for 8 years and think the abnormally hot, dry weather is the norm from those that have been going for 20 and realise we've just been batting a blinder the past few festivals.

Normal for 11 days per year. It's not mental to hope none of those days are over Glastonbury. We've only ever had recorded temperatures of 35 or more in 14 years since 1900 (1906, 1911, 1923, 1932, 1948, 1957, 1976, 1990, 1995, 2003, 2006, 2015, 2018, 2019) - that's not a really hot temperature for summer, it's an abnormally hot summer.