BobWillis2
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Posts posted by BobWillis2
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54 minutes ago, Punksnotdead said:
Jesus Christ, the idea that we can't protest against the murder of a young woman by a policeman without being arrested by the same police force he worked for (& was protected by)..... I genuinely don't think I've ever been angrier!!!!
So much for innocent until proven guilty.
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6 minutes ago, Supernintendo Chalmers said:
Good points. Maybe they'll trial a few more events in between the Cup Final (if successful) and June 21, increasing the capacity gradually each time?
Possibly. I think it would have made sense to have 1/3 capacity for the league cup final in April, 2/3’s for the FA cup final in May and then full capacity in June.
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9 minutes ago, Supernintendo Chalmers said:
Maybe they're also limiting the numbers due to the need to manage the fans through the gates with their negative tests, etc? Could be a full-scale clusterfuck if they go big and try and manage 90,000 at the first attempt? Don't forget, it's also been twelve months since the staff have worked. I'm sure some kind of refresher is required!
Like others, I'm trying to put a positive spin on it at the moment but I can definitely see how there's some scepticism. May 17 seems like a long way away still and despite all the numbers going in the right direction, it's easy for our opinions to see-saw from one way to the other on a seemingly hourly basis at the moment. Each of the proper milestones can't come quick enough...
I agree with what you say. I just feel like the next logical step from roughly a quarter full is maybe 50% and then 75% before going for full capacity. The Final is on the 15th May, the idea that 37 days after the 25% test we’ll be at full capacity seems highly unlikely.
We can all argue about the speed of the roadmap until we’re blue in the face, but that’s not the point I’m trying to make here.
The only way to find out how safe or unsafe it will be to have large non socially distanced events is to actually trial large non socially distanced events. Either we’re heading into 21st June blind and hoping for the best, or they’re overselling how much normality there will be on the 21st June.-
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2 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:
How in the 3 months we have left would you fit it in then ? I think it’s going to look weird whatever we do ? The London Underground going back to normal carries 2m people per day ... and there is no way that’s going to require a test ...
The FA cup final should be the trial, the proper trial of a return to normality. Everybody needs to test negative 24/48 before the match and you aggressively test everybody in the week or 2 following the match.
That’s how you properly trial whether it’s safe to return to normal, you don’t learn anything from a socially distanced event.
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3 minutes ago, danmarks said:
Weird how we all interpret these things. I thought 20,000 in one place in middle of May was going great guns. Though i am so fucked off with all this now i may be interpreting it in a positive way that suits me at the moment
I just find the idea that 20k tested people still having to be socially distanced is not a trial for a full Wembley weeks later and 100’s of thousands stood in fields watching live music for the rest of the summer, it’s a trial for more social distancing.
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1 hour ago, sisco said:
20,000 in for the FA cup final as one of the test events. Lateral Flow negative test needed before
Is that it? If that’s as far as they expect to be on test events by the middle of May. A socially distanced cup final even with testing then the idea we’re going back to normal 5 weeks later is a bit of a reach.
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17 minutes ago, stephos83 said:
For England those numbers are available on the dashboard - for example see below. This is by specimen date, so obviously numbers will change as results come in.
I tried to find them and I couldn’t. Thank you. Possibly higher than I expected then 😬
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I’d be more interested in knowing how many of the extra cases are from the group that tested positive with a lateral flow and it wasn’t backed up with a pcr to confirm it wasn’t a false positive. With the huge numbers of tests I’d imagine it’s at least half.
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I’m fairly sure they weren’t expecting to more than double daily testing and only find an extra ~1000 cases per day.
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15 minutes ago, xxialac said:
A politician with a grasp on detail and a very clear vision of how to take action.
And 12 sodding months ago.
Johnson may have gone to the same school and the same university as him but intellectually and in terms of leadership qualities they are galaxies apart.
The difference is Rory Stewart wasn’t being advised by the Chief Scientific Advisor to wait until spread was accelerating before locking down rather than lock down early to stop spread happening at all.
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11 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:
What if the hospitalisations do go up and restrictions aren't lifted on the 21st June?
Then this shit is never going to end and we have our answer.
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9 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:
I know. Another reason why it's definitely not the schools.
Not necessarily. Some schools started their testing last week as kids need 3 on site tests before they can start their home testing.
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5 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:
I hate it when Manchester seems to randomly stall its case drops for a day. Hopefully back to decent drops in the next couple of days like last time. It's so weird, not as if the schools will have made an impact yet - maybe it's surge testing?
It’s 4 days old data.
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18 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:
You really do care about your reputation don't you 😜
Careful you might get one of their really angry messages 😭😭😭😭
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The more you look into the more it seems that the issue with accuracy is less about the test and more with how well or badly the swabbing was done.
There were reported issues last year of PCR tests being much less accurate if the swab wasn’t pushed far enough up the nose and self swabbing was often useless because people couldn’t force themselves to push the swab far enough up their nose.
The same issues occur with the LFD, and instructions seem to differ from testing site to testing site. Some NHS Trusts are only swabbing nostril(s) and not the throat at all.
Some places will tell you do both tonsils and both nostrils, some 1 of each and some 2 of 1 and 1 of the other.
Not all sites will tell you not to eat, drink or smoke for 30 minutes before, and very few sites will tell you that the end of the swab cannot touch anything other than your tonsils or it voids the result (but doesn’t actually show as a void test on the cassette) even though that’s quite a hard thing to do.
I imagine a lot of the issues with the Liverpool trial in particular is that these things perhaps weren’t known at the time so the testing was a lot less accurate than it could have been. The innova tests are still the worst of the lot but the accuracy is higher than its perceived to be.
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1 hour ago, Fuzzy Afro said:
Whilst the government did ignore advice to lock down earlier in both September/October and December, leading to embarrassing u-turns when the NHS got into trouble, it probably IS fair to criticise the scientists over the first wave.
SAGE minutes reveal that the government did follow the scientific advice on wave 1. The problem was that the advice was tailored to a flu pandemic and was based around fomite transmission (I.e. big focus on hand washing and the idea that face coverings are counter productive) as opposed to airborne transmission and perhaps more importantly, the focus on mitigating the virus to reach herd immunity rather than trying to contain and suppress it.
In fact the government wanted to lock down before the scientists officially recommended it. Dominic Cummings bizarrely turned up to SAGE meetings to advocate a lockdown just weeks after his “herd immunity, protect the economy and if some pensioners die then so be it” remark.
I think at the future enquiry Whitty and Vallance will be thrown under the bus at least with regards to their behaviour in early to mid March.
Vallance stood in front of the press in mid March and showed off his exponential growth graph and explained the point at which was best to lockdown. They didn’t want to wait until we were too far up the growth and it was out of control but they also didn’t want to go too early and have a lockdown when not a lot was happening.
That policy and advice to not lock down too early because “not a lot was happening” cost 10’s of thousands of lives in this country. -
11 minutes ago, Andre91 said:
It’s summarised info straight from an attached government document too. Madness.
If the LFD taken at school overrides the PCR result then what was the point in the PCR test at all?
Also why not retest the home test with a LFD test in school if they’re so good?
None of it makes any sense.
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21 minutes ago, Andre91 said:
Our Principal has emailed out some updated details regarding the LFT/PCR results for schools:
‘Lateral flow in school that is positive trumps a PCR and the positive lateral cannot be overruled by a negative PCR. Everyone has to self-isolate.
Positive lateral at home needs a PCR test. A negative PCR overrules a positive lateral taken at home.’
This is insane.
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40 minutes ago, Avalon_Fields said:
The government guidance for schools states for positives to self-isolate immediately and arrange a PCR test for confirmation.
I heard the false positives are less than 1 in a 1000 so yes it's a problem but the testing isn't as inaccurate as it's being perceived I think.
That guidance seems to vary from area to area. Some areas are being told to only book a PCR if the test was taken at home but if done at the school it’s deemed unnecessary.
They’re not as inaccurate as they were made to be following the Liverpool pilot, but they’re far from the best LFD tests available. Once the government get through these innova tests hopefully they’ll bring the better ones online. -
2 minutes ago, Avalon_Fields said:
I've been helping out at a secondary school with lateral flow testing yesterday & today. We have had two positives. There's 925 pupils in the school, certainly not all taking up the tests but it's around 85% I believe.
Are they being backed up with a PCR to make sure they’re not false positives?
The sheer numbers that are being tested this week there is bound to be a few.
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A reminder to those that worry about case rates in their local area. Just because case rates might go up for the next week or so doesn’t necessarily mean anything has changed at all.
Mass testing of school kids is picking up asymptomatic cases that were always there and were there throughout the same period that cases were declining but weren’t being picked up because they weren’t being tested. This is a good thing and should speed up the decline in cases once things settle down in a couple of weeks.-
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I don’t think there will be any vaccine passports domestically.
They’ll use it as a threat hanging over people to influence their decision to have the vaccine and keep prolonging their decision by saying its under review but it’s not necessary while social distancing is in place and then by the time social distancing is up for review then lo and behold all age groups will have had their first dose and uptake will be high enough for them not to be needed.They’ll be needed for foreign travel is some way though.
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8 minutes ago, steviewevie said:
cool font though.
Look at how important they think they are 😭😭
When will this shit end?
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Especially anti lockdown protests.