Mellotr0n
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Posts posted by Mellotr0n
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1 hour ago, Copperface said:
Don't think anyone is saying that, are they?
Perhaps we are arguing semantics here. I also think a lot of people have differing ideas as to what constitutes “broadly normal”.
I think elements that we have put in place during this pandemic will probably stay for years, but that things will be largely “normal” come summertime.
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4 hours ago, Toilet Duck said:
Shielding the vulnerable while society chases herd immunity via natural infection and vaccinating the vulnerable are two different things (one is achievable, the other isn't). I'm no weirdo (matter of opinion!) and completely disagree with the Great Barrington Declaration....but if morbidity and mortality fall off a cliff once the more vulnerable members of society are vaccinated, then we start to move back towards normal (and a reasonable timeline for that is Spring/Easter). Will still require wider uptake of the vaccines later in the year to reinforce that protection (and with any luck, there will be even more choice available), but we won't be locking down/imposing severe restrictions if the hospitals are empty of COVID patients and mortality drops in line with the personal protection levels supposedly provided by the various vaccines. How prevalent long COVID is really represents the major unknown and the possible spanner in the works...best data I've seen so far suggests about 2% of symptomatic infections, we just don't have an entirely accurate picture of how many infections are asymptomatic. It's estimated that at least 90% are undetected, but that includes mild infections...how prevalent is long COVID in "mild" cases? we still don't fully know (but there does seem to be a correlation with initial symptoms...those that had scratchy throats and not much else aren't reporting breathlessness months later in their droves...and the case definition of long COVID itself is still a bit up in the air. It remains a worry, but thankfully, something the vaccines can deal with too). Anyway, we don't need vaccine-driven herd immunity (60-70% of the population) to open things back up again given the huge disparity in risk across different age ranges.
Put it far better than I could. There is no way on earth we’re waiting for 70% uptake (which we may never, ever achieve) to reopen.
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Not listened to anything like the amount of new music I set out to - like many I'm sure, fell back on comfort listening this year.
Albums of the Year
- Close Talker - How Do We Stay Here? (FFO The National, Bombay Bicycle Club)
- The Strokes - The New Abnormal
- Baths - Pop Music / False B-Sides II
- Hayley Williams - Petals For Armor
- Biffy Clyro - A Celebration Of Endings (almost didn't include it, as despite generally being a fun plod through 00s rock influences (with some fun Infinityland style oddness thrown in), the track Instant History is one of the worst songs I've ever heard. IMO, of course.
There are other albums I have listened to, but none that have impacted me enough to assign them any points. Been a singles person this year.
Singles of the Year
- The Strokes - At The Door (hated the lack of drums at first, but now my favourite production decision of the year)
- Close Talker - Arm's Length
- Baths - Wistful (Fata Morgana)
- Billie Eilish - my future (took a while to get to grips with it, now think it's genius)
- Hayley Williams - Simmer
- Death Stare - Reverie (one of those strange rare occasions that an Instagram advert is accurate, great post-rock)
- Muzz - Red Western Sky (Interpol meets Walkmen covering The National)
- Jack Garrett - Mara
- Biffy Clyro - North Of No South (hoping to enjoy that gargantuan riff live at Download next year...)
- Holy F*ck feat. Alexis Taylor - Luxe
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1 hour ago, Copperface said:
All of this 'once the vulnerable are vaccinated' stuff has been widely and continually debunked over the past several months.
You cannot simply isolate whatever you define as 'vulnerable'.
You can't fully remove restrictions until a critical mass of the population has been vaccinated. Even then, there are many unknowns such as reinfection rates, length of immunity and a whole host of other factors. The only ones supporting this idea are the outlier weirdos who came up with the Great Barrington Declaration, picked up by all the nutter wings of each faction.
I think there's a middle ground to be trodden here.
Prof Jonathan Van Tam suggested vaccinating the key/most vulnerable 33% would stop 99%+ of deaths.
It will be a gradual lifting of restrictions, based on seeing key factors (hospitalisations and deaths) drop, as it should be.
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12 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:
I’m trying to convince my mum not to drive up from her very quiet village with 0 cases upto Tier 3 Yorkshire especially as she’s very high risk after being hospitalised with pneumonia before and should really be shielding just for a commercial event that I don’t even enjoy and don’t celebrate.
Any ideas of how to politely tell her to get a grip and stay home where it’s safe?
Maybe try to get her to "zoom out" a little, and see that in the grand scheme of things it's just "one weird Christmas" and next year's can be all the bigger and better for it?
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30 minutes ago, Ozanne said:
Worthing has the 2nd least infected area in the entire country. We rock down here in Worthing 💪
Noises are that the Brighton Centre is likely to be one of the vaccination centres...(from a Nurse I know who works at RSCH).
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I recommend the US podcast In The Bubble with Andy Slavitt - he speaks to doctors, scientists, epidemiologists and asks the sorts of questions us laypeople would like to understand the answers to, regarding the pandemic.
On his latest episode, he hosts Ashish Jha, Dean of Brown University's School for Public Health. Ashish suggests - due to mass testing and the effect of vaccinations starting to show - it is likely that late Jan-early Feb is when we will start to see the tide turn on this virus for good.
So, 6-9 more weeks. Not long in the grand scheme of things.
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Separately, in a Guardian article today;
QuoteDr Jonathan Van-Tam, England’s deputy chief medical officer, has estimated that if a vaccine had already been rolled out to the 22 million people in the 10 groups deemed a priority to receive it, that would have saved 99% of the 58,245 people who have died in the UK from coronavirus since February.
Dumb/Oversimplified conclusion - if the 33% highest priority members of UK population are vaccinated, it will pretty much all but end deaths from Covid-19.
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4 minutes ago, zahidf said:
Its not a 'short sharp firebreak' if your R 1 goes up massively after it to that degree
Short, but not sharp, it would seem.
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1 hour ago, rascalpete said:
A lot of papers reporting NHS have mobilised staff to be ready to start vaccinating on Wednesday, so if this is an indicator hopefully today or tomorrow? (Wishful thinking I know)
Surprised by this - last I heard was first vaccine deliveries are expected between 7th-9th December, so not sure how they can vaccinate without having the vaccines?
Unless I have misheard.
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47 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:
While we’re on the flag discussion, how many of you have strong ties your county flag? As a Yorkshireman I know we make a huge deal about being proud of our regional heritage. I know the Cornish have a similar view too.
Are we the only crazy ones who prefer our regional identity over our national one?
I don't think I "prefer" either, and I'd say the vast majority of people I know down in Sussex are the same. I'm always a little bit baffled when people care that much. It's completely random which patch of land each of us was born on.
Was at a Royal Blood gig in Sheffield a few years back, and inbetween every. single. song. half the crowd was aggressively chanting YORKSHIRE YORKSHIRE YORKSHIRE. I just don't get it.
No problem with people being happy with where there from obviously, but don't expect anyone else to give a fuck.
Sorry if this came across overly aggressive, it's not intended to be. It's just a phenomena that's always baffled me.
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1 minute ago, Ozanne said:
Worthing Borough Council which is in West Sussex is in tier 2.
Was expecting as much. Assuming Arun will be 2 as well.
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6 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:
Welcome @Mellotr0n and @Haan to the fun ..... enjoy the build up to next year .... a few more months and we will slowly see the covid threads drop and the usual suspects like the weather thread return to the top of the forum ...
Thanks - I'm grimly obsessed with Covid threads on various forums, but yes, looking forward to the time when days will go by without even a single thought about this crappy virus.
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Hey - from UK, been to numerous festivals over the years - both playing and as a punter - never done Glastonbury (as yet) but see it as the holy grail and fully intend to visit in the next 3-5 years.
Favourite festival - Probably Northside in Denmark, 2014. Great line up and was fortunate enough to be there as friends of a band who were up-and-coming at the time, so got the VIP experience which was pretty crazy.
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10 minutes ago, zahidf said:
Yeah, it does seem like posturing. At least lets hope so!
I hate to say "surely Boris can't be that stupid?!", given how many times that has backfired...
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20 minutes ago, Zoo Music Girl said:
Yeah I don't think people will stick to the actual rules that well to be honest. I suppose they are partly there just to remind people to exercise caution.
This.
I think many spend far too much time overthinking the specifics. All about the spirit of the law rather than the letter of the law IMO.
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1 minute ago, Homer said:
Just Googled it to stick the date in my diary and they appear to be sticking with 2020! It's prob cos they still want to market it as the 60th anniversary (it's why they are hosting it all over Europe this time - they really timed that well!).
I've heard it's also that all the branding has been sorted (all the memorabilia/tat as well no doubt) so don't want to sort all of that again.
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6 minutes ago, Ozanne said:
The South East, which is where I live currently have the highest rates in England at 631.7 cases per 100k.
Bugger. Really?
I live just down the road from you - Rustington, work in Arundel and used to work/live in Worthing.
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35 minutes ago, mattiloy said:
They arent married are they? She’s more the first mistress. Or the first baby mamma
Hardly the first.....
haaaaa
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Looking like Oxford/AZ might just beat Pfizer/BioNTech to it after all. Adrian Hill (Oxford Prof in charge of trials) has now said the unblinding of Phase III data is imminent.
Internal NHS emails have told staff to prepare for a full vaccination programme from early December onwards - starting with key workers and at-risk, then rolled out to the rest of us in Qs 1+2 next year.
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27 minutes ago, Mouseboy11 said:
Will be amazed if the festival goes ahead with any sort of testing regime to be honest, I just think it isn't practical and it'll be as normal or not at all.
I know someone who runs a medium sized UK festival - around 16,000-20,000 a year. He's already decided 2021 (May) isn't going ahead, and it's due to the amount of time required to prepare, logistical planning, and most curiously, getting insurance.
A festival organiser has to apply for insurance a long time prior to the festival. As things currently stand, the festival would need to be planned and insurance applied for based on the rules as they are re: covid compliance - i.e. almost completely impossible.
It will probably be a bit frustrating that I think we will likely get to summer 2021 and be in a situation where the festivals could be (fairly) safely held, but there wasn't enough time to prepare and put everything in place logistics wise. Perhaps some of the larger festivals will get special dispensation, who knows.
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Definitely some positive noises starting to come along, vaccines wise.
Have a friend who works ground crew at an airport - he and his colleagues have been put on standby to help with delivery of vaccines into the country in November.
We're expecting data from Pfizer around 3rd week of November, and AstraZeneca not long after. Looking like first vaccines (if approved) will be going into UK citizens around end of 2020/very early 2021.
Initially they will of course go to care workers, the vulnerable, high risk etc - but immunising the most at-risk 10-20% of the country will likely have a massive effect on death rates.
This is a useful read on what the process to approval is, and how it looks likely Pfizer will win the race.
https://www.pfizer.com/news/hot-topics/an_open_letter_from_pfizer_chairman_and_ceo_albert_bourla
Keep going everyone - 2021's going to be a lot better.
When will this shit end?
in Chat
Posted
I went to the Amex test event vs Chelsea - honestly, after the first 5-10 mins of feeling “this is a bit weird” it was totally fine, quite nice even.
I felt far safer at the stadium than I would in a supermarket. You’ll love being back.