wilby-wilbert
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Posts posted by wilby-wilbert
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On 6/7/2020 at 12:34 PM, Homer said:
I've woken up Sunday countless times thinking 'I'm done, I can't go on' and then it's ended up being the best day. 2015 would be the peak for this. Belle and Sebastian being the critical turning point. Chemical Brothers being the apex.
That sunday was probably my favourite day at the festival in 7 visits. As you say the other stage was perfect from late afternoon through to the chems which was my favourite of the 3 times seeing them headline the other stage.
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3 minutes ago, gizmoman said:
Had to google that!, not heard of Rawls i'm afraid, will have a read though, the point is actually more Rand than Rawls, people are at the core self-interested, it's a bit easier to think of others if you yourself are comfortably off, if you are on the lower rungs of society you are more likely to vote for someone to make YOU better off rather than some distant "others", this article from 2016 makes the same points re: representation. Labour need more working class candidates to appeal to their core voters.
More specifically referring to what Rawls referred to as the veil of ignorance.
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3 minutes ago, Sdsm123 said:
@Ozanne see look what happens when you try to make conversation you just get abused
Its cos you are an evil, privileged accountant mate. Basically you're a lesser human being than the righteous folks on here.
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21 minutes ago, gizmoman said:
You vote for your own self-interest, that's actually how democracy is supposed to work, you vote for the candidate and party that represents you and your interests. The problem with modern socialism is that the people voting are voting for the perceived benefit of OTHER people (the underclass, minorities etc) because they believe themselves privileged under the current system and want to make society better for the others. This has led to the Labour party being run by and appealing to younger, affluent, middle class kids, while the older working class parents have no main party to vote for that truly represents them, this time Boris captured that vote but it remains to be seen if Labour can still appeal to the people they lost.
Not very rawlsian
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Blur - tender
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Lol
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2 minutes ago, Ozanne said:
Should we have a Q&A thread for COVID19, where people can post any type of questions and they get answered. The original post can be updated to be easily recognised too?
Genuine LOL
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2 minutes ago, funkychick2007 said:
Please can be people stay in as asked! Things of who what and when will become clearer each day!
I work for frontline services as do many of my friends and family! We are trying to keep you safe and well! But people not listening is putting more of us at risk!
As well as dealing with the coronavirus we are continuing to do our normal jobs like preventing crime, making sure children and adults are not being abused! Making sure the vulnerable are safe in lots of ways!
We are not seeing our friends and family either! Its horrible to see small business and self employed lose their jobs! Its all shit!
but please limit your physical contact with people! Be inventive use social media and other forms of communication! Together we can get through this!
Sound like a peeler to me
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If in doubt dont go out
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43 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:
I can’t see this helping much unfortunately.. it’s far too Woolley
Whats wooly about it?
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12 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:
That would be a good thing though surely? The same amount of people being infected each day that is? That would suggest things are improving and not spreading exponentially? Surely anything that isn’t exponential growth is a positive.
I suppose if cases arent increasing exponentially that is a positive in a way. But its not on its own an indication that the rate of spread is in any way manageable for health services that are already beyond capacity.
Something like number of hospital/icu beds or ventilators needed vs number available on a given day would be a better measure to my mind. That situation can worsen while the daily % increase in cases falls.
From limited reading the average time from first symptoms to death is between 2 and 3 weeks.
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1 minute ago, dotdash79 said:
Italy's cases look like they are starting to level off, only 10% increase today, lowest percentage increase for a month.
I find daily % increase as a measure intuitively misleading. If there were 1000 new cases every day for a week then the % increase would go down each day which gives the impression things are getting better when in reality the number of people who can possibly get the disease is getting smaller but the actual number of people getting infected is the same.
I think this exacerbated by the presumption that the infections will follow a normal distribution pattern (or bell curve) as this is often how the basic "flatten the curve" graphs are presented. In practice this is unlikely to be the case.
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1 hour ago, sime said:
I just reported that guys unnecessary and frankly unkind poster. Hopefully it will be gone soon.
Haha
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1 hour ago, Sasperella said:
Not unless he has a crystal ball!
I'm hoping for August/September, but worried it could reemerge in November 😕
I think its almost guaranteed to reemerge in the winter given the chances of a vaccine before then are almost 0 from what I have read.
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Herd immunity is the only way we return to normal life. The two ways herd immunity is achieved are 1) by sufficient numbers getting infected or 2) by vaccine.
This was massively poorly managed by the government in how they introduced the term into the lexicon.
In reality both of the approaches mentioned (herd immunity vs lockdown) are aimed at achieving herd immunity but with varying proportions of the herd achieving it through vaccine vs infection.
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On 3/20/2020 at 8:37 PM, dentalplan said:
If you're genuinely asking then a GIF is an animated picture, of which the file type is .gif. A meme is kinda hard to define but basically it's a repeated joke format on the internet and can be many things such as a picture, a GIF, or just words like "9. Pablo Honey".
The term "meme" was coined in the selfish gene by Richard Dawkins in 1976. Nothing to do with the internet or jokes specifically.
You were right on "hard to define" though evidently.
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8 minutes ago, eFestivals said:
it's my own dodgy calc that I did in my head a few days ago.
If I remember rightly I worked it from hospitalisation as 14 days for 5% of cases needing critical care (which is a best-case guess - I'm not claiming huge accuracy).
Thanks, I wasnt doubting the accuracy of your numbers, just wanting to get an idea of where they came from.
The unsettling thing about all of the modelling is that so much of this is based on very limited data and with so mamy variables at play and thus a serious degree of uncertainty.
So we could be looking at infection rates of anywhere between say 20 and 80%, mortality rates (direct from the disease) of anywhere from below 0.5% to 5 or 6 times that, then shortages of ventilators, beds etc will have a massive effect and there will be all the deaths by other causes that wouldnt have happened were it not for the strain on the health system.
It seem that in order to act rationally from the perspective of society as a whole, many will have to vastly over react from a strictly individual perspective.
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43 minutes ago, eFestivals said:
unfortunately, if the NHS ran at full ramped-up capacity (about 15,000 critical care beds) treating the hospitalised, only around 45% of the population could have had the virus and acquired immunity by this time next year.
For comparison, Germany (with a slightly bigger population) has 25,000 critical care beds as standard, and can (and is) ramp-up to 50,000.
And when the UK did a pandemic simulation in 2016 and discovered it needed to have many more respirators in reserve.... it did absolutely fuck all. 😠
Whats the assumption on % of cases needing to be hospitalised/ length of stay here?
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29 minutes ago, Stevie P-alike said:
If you think about it, getting through for a ticket next year could be much, much easier. Assuming 120,000 people roll their tickets over, then in theory that's 120,000 fewer people trying to log on to Seetickets.
Should be an absolute doddle for all the ticket veterans out thereNot sure this works like that. Youre going to be reducing supply by a much larger proportion then you are reducing demand, thus making it harder to get get tickets.
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4 minutes ago, Benja100 said:
My sis works in a senior capacity in this area and was round for lunch today. Spent almost the whole day on work conference calls. All events over 500 people will be banned in a few days. Event organisers who are showing no signs of cancelling are likely holding off for this policy to be officially announced as it will be favourable to them from an insurance / legal POV. Sorry I know it’s not what you want to hear but it’s what is happening now. I’d say in likelihood tickets will cary over as that’s what happens with 99% of other events.
99% is probably pushing it slightly
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5 minutes ago, FuzzyDunlop said:
I will be honest, I haven't even looked at the poster. I have avoided it. I just can't see it being on.
Massive shame.
You havent even looked at the poster? Thats proper weird
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When will this shit end?
in Chat
Posted
Totally agree. I think largely people on here do want the same or similar outcomes but disagree on how to get there. The characterisation of people who disagree on those means as privileged/ greedy/ elitist is unhelpful in the vast majority of cases.