UK Politics

[Neil]

1 hour ago, Nobody Interesting said:

Polls are often very wrong.

more correctly people's understanding of polls is often very wrong.

[fraybentos1]

1 hour ago, Nobody Interesting said:

 

Polls are often very wrong.

Look at the ones done in April for the West Midlands Mayor and the Tyne Mayor and then compare to the actual results. Nothing like the results at all.

Can only see one poll for the north east mayor but with regards to the West Midlands one , the three polls prior to the election were in the right neck of the woods 

[Neil]

4 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

Can only see one poll for the north east mayor but with regards to the West Midlands one , the three polls prior to the election were in the right neck of the woods 

like all polls, only as good as the sample is representative.

[steviewevie]

Probably helps labour if people don't believe the polls.

[steviewevie]

 

[Neil]

1 hour ago, steviewevie said:

Probably helps labour if people don't believe the polls.

true.

[steviewevie]

Woohoo!

[Neil]

80 old bill to be wasted looking into criminal conduct in the post office horizon thing not sure that's a good use of resources,  cos its c*ck up and not malicious.

[Neil]

top marks for anyone chasing a cheese downhill yesterday.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crgg2z0m5k9o

[steviewevie]

Being old and hating young people I'm getting very tempted to vote Tory. Cutting inheritance tax will seal the deal.

[Neil]

5 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Being old and hating young people I'm getting very tempted to vote Tory. Cutting inheritance tax will seal the deal.

i'm currently waiting to inherit, and a cut wouldn't influence me either way,

[steviewevie]

Edited May 28 by steviewevie

[steviewevie]

So they need to finally make a decision what they're doing about Abbott. They could let her back in, there is a lot of sympathy for her within Labour, but then she could be a problem with wider electorate in the election, same old scary lefty labour etc. She has been treated pretty badly if the above is true, but then wouldn't exactly be the most loyal labour MP if they let her back and would probably spend a lot of her time criticising labour policy. If they had a large majority that probably wouldn't matter much (still a big if). If they don't let her back in she may well win her seat back anyway, and that seat would just be another side drama along with the corbyn thing. I reckon weighing it all up they should let her back, but on condition she stops slagging off labour policies until they actually win power (and don't write any more dumbarse letters to newspapers suggesting the racism jews/irish/travellers experience is similar to that of redheads).

 

Edited May 28 by steviewevie

[fraybentos1]

9 hours ago, Neil said:

i'm currently waiting to inherit, and a cut wouldn't influence me either way,

your footer on here used to read : 'inheritance is the engine of all inequality' or something similar did it not?

[Nobody Interesting]

12 hours ago, fraybentos1 said:

Can only see one poll for the north east mayor but with regards to the West Midlands one , the three polls prior to the election were in the right neck of the woods 

 

Here is the stuff I referred to, from Wiki opinion polls page.

West Midlands was a close result in the end so not like these polls................... and that should concern people as to how wrong they were. ditto the Tees valley which the Tories won...........................

Unless I am mistaken on which areas these polls refer to.

[steviewevie]

10 minutes ago, Nobody Interesting said:

 

Here is the stuff I referred to, from Wiki opinion polls page.

West Midlands was a close result in the end so not like these polls................... and that should concern people as to how wrong they were. ditto the Tees valley which the Tories won...........................

Unless I am mistaken on which areas these polls refer to.

 

that doesn't look right. They for the mayoral elections? Street was slightly ahead in polls, and where is Jamie Driscoll?

[steviewevie]

1 minute ago, steviewevie said:

 

that doesn't look right. They for the mayoral elections? Street was slightly ahead in polls, and where is Jamie Driscoll?

Also, Driscoll wasn't Tees valley, that was Houchen.

[Nobody Interesting]

2 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

 

that doesn't look right. They for the mayoral elections? Street was slightly ahead in polls, and where is Jamie Driscoll?

 

Maybe I am wrong but as far as I can see from the website these are the mayoral areas as they are in the list for such 'other polls'.

[steviewevie]

Ok, this is the Driscoll one, which was NE mayoral election. There was only one poll, and it was wrong.

2024 North East mayoral election - Wikipedia

 

 

[fraybentos1]

3 minutes ago, Nobody Interesting said:

 

Maybe I am wrong but as far as I can see from the website these are the mayoral areas as they are in the list for such 'other polls'.

west midlands : hardly that far out

 

[fraybentos1]

turnout for these things are so low too, makes it harder to poll. General election will be over double the turnout 

[steviewevie]

and here's same for West Mids Andy Street...

2024 West Midlands mayoral election - Wikipedia

 

 

[steviewevie]

and these are for mayoral elections which probably don't get the same amount of attention/funding etc as the national polls...it isn't an exact science of course but they are getting better...but labour lead seems to vary between 15 and 25% which is quite a big difference.

What would worry me in Labour, and will give Tories hope, is the amount of Don't Knows or Undecideds which mostly seem to be people who voted Tory last time. If Tories can win them back, and also win back some who are thinking of voting reform/labour with tax cut promises or national service for the woke youth or promises of a referendum on leaving the ECHR or whatever they're thinking of next, then it could actually be a lot closer than polls suggest.

 

Edited May 28 by steviewevie

[zahidf]

3 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

and these are for mayoral elections which probably don't get the same amount of attention/funding etc as the national polls...it isn't an exact science of course but they are getting better...but labour lead seems to vary between 15 and 25% which is quite a big difference.

What would worry me in Labour, and will give Tories hope, is the amount of Don't Knows or Undecideds which mostly seem to be people who voted Tory last time. If Tories can win them back, and also win back some who are thinking of voting reform/labour with tax cut promises or national service for the woke youth or promises of a referendum on leaving the ECHR or whatever they're thinking of next, then it could actually be a lot closer than polls suggest.

 

Around 1.2 million of the DK have died since 2019, so the gap is probably accurate

[lazyred]

11 hours ago, Neil said:

80 old bill to be wasted looking into criminal conduct in the post office horizon thing not sure that's a good use of resources,  cos its c*ck up and not malicious.

The IT was a c*ck up, the cover up and prosecutions were malicious. I hope at least perjury charges can be brought for the prosecution witnesses.