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The Weather Thread 2022


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1 minute ago, Spindles said:

Damn, let's not get brought down by talk of covid.  For the record, whilst there is evidence of a slight uptick in cases we need to be clear that there has been a downward trend for 3 months now and we have dropped from 100k cases a day to less than 7000 in that time.  Even if it were super megatron-omigod strain there wouldn't be enough time for cases to reach any kind of concerning numbers before the festival. 

How about we just forget about that and focus on the real issues at hand: Isobars and azores fingers.

As long as that finger has been washed for a couple of happy birthdays and doused in hand gel

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12 minutes ago, Glasto Weatherwatch said:

Was about to say GFS 06z is a marginal improvement looking at Tues - Weds of festival week but Thursday / Friday is just as bad, so as you were.  

Plenty of time for it to change. Some signs the low trough might be pushed north for week of festival after the initial breakdown. 

 

sat/sun look ok though! 🙂

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There was lots of unsettled weather in the lead up to 2019 and without fail every rain band would head towards Pilton before abruptly turning the other way. 
 

Until there are raindrops hitting the ground, I still believe in the Pilton force field. 

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So, let's say it rains for a lot of the festival, and the few days beforehand.  As a first timer, I'd like to know how bad that makes it?  (I've seen all the pictures of 97 et al, obvs). I guess what I'm really hoping for is a bit of positivity.  If you've got a good poncho, wellies, sealskinz socks, is it still really really awful?  

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Just now, Ed90 said:

So, let's say it rains for a lot of the festival, and the few days beforehand.  As a first timer, I'd like to know how bad that makes it?  (I've seen all the pictures of 97 et al, obvs). I guess what I'm really hoping for is a bit of positivity.  If you've got a good poncho, wellies, sealskinz socks, is it still really really awful?  

You're at Glastonbury so it's never really awful.

But we all know how much better it is when the sun is shining and the ground is dry. It's a completely different experience to getting rained on all day. 

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2 minutes ago, Ed90 said:

So, let's say it rains for a lot of the festival, and the few days beforehand.  As a first timer, I'd like to know how bad that makes it?  (I've seen all the pictures of 97 et al, obvs). I guess what I'm really hoping for is a bit of positivity.  If you've got a good poncho, wellies, sealskinz socks, is it still really really awful?  

It just makes it all a bit harder, can't sit on the ground, walking anywhere takes twice as long. It's still Glastonbury though so still better than any other 5 days you'll spend this year

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2 minutes ago, Ed90 said:

So, let's say it rains for a lot of the festival, and the few days beforehand.  As a first timer, I'd like to know how bad that makes it?  (I've seen all the pictures of 97 et al, obvs). I guess what I'm really hoping for is a bit of positivity.  If you've got a good poncho, wellies, sealskinz socks, is it still really really awful?  

It would be muddy and it makes it a bit miserable at times but you can get on with it. If it's pissing down rain for a decent amount of time its grim. Everything is way, way better when it's dry and there's no mud. More important than the line up for me.

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2 minutes ago, Ed90 said:

So, let's say it rains for a lot of the festival, and the few days beforehand.  As a first timer, I'd like to know how bad that makes it?  (I've seen all the pictures of 97 et al, obvs). I guess what I'm really hoping for is a bit of positivity.  If you've got a good poncho, wellies, sealskinz socks, is it still really really awful?  

Don’t worry. They’ve spent huge amounts of money on the site over the years. The 05/07 flooding is incredibly unlikely.

2016 was the worst in recent times. No flooding just lots of saturated ground and deep mud in places. It was tough going, true, but not like 05/07.

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5 minutes ago, Ed90 said:

So, let's say it rains for a lot of the festival, and the few days beforehand.  As a first timer, I'd like to know how bad that makes it?  (I've seen all the pictures of 97 et al, obvs). I guess what I'm really hoping for is a bit of positivity.  If you've got a good poncho, wellies, sealskinz socks, is it still really really awful?  

It makes it more tiring and affects the choices you make in terms of who you see as you won't sprint around in loads of mud but as long as you have the right clothes you will survive it and you will still enjoy yourself. For me it just feels harder work when you can't sit down at will. 

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11 minutes ago, Ed90 said:

So, let's say it rains for a lot of the festival, and the few days beforehand.  As a first timer, I'd like to know how bad that makes it?  (I've seen all the pictures of 97 et al, obvs). I guess what I'm really hoping for is a bit of positivity.  If you've got a good poncho, wellies, sealskinz socks, is it still really really awful?  

if you've got waterproofs and wellies/boots you'll be fine.

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There are some parts of the site that will still be a mess if there's significant rainfall. The whole of the Other Stage field (and to a lesser extent the front left of the Pyramid) are some of the lowest lying parts of the site with the highest footfall, so they go bad and stay bad (at worst 6 inches of liquid mud, at worst 6 inches of quicksand mud). Whereas on the higher ground, like up by the Park, a few hours of sun can sort it out.

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1 minute ago, CaledonianGonzo said:

Inability to sit is the real pisser. Even if you're fit as a fiddle standing all day can cause back pain / leg pain.

This. I'm 49 years old, fit and it's still an absolute bloody nightmare when you get a really rainy one. I went to every Glastonbury from 1994 to 2016 before finally having a couple of failures to get tickets. Which means that the last two I went to were hard work whereas the two I missed were great. 

One thing that missing out on two years did to me (which actually means it's six years since I've been) is to break the link where I feel like I *need* to go yearly. This is my last one for a while (going to try some others) and my last one in a tent. I miss the days when turning up on Wednesday morning meant you got onsite in a flash, and no amount of years attending (I've been 20 times) will ever make me really enjoy a mudbath year. Out in the real world I love a trudge through fields in wellies in the rain, but it's hard to communicate to people that haven't been to the festival how hard going it is there on those years. I know some people say they still love it, but I hate the endless trudging, and the dialling back of all the plans. Want to go halfway across the site for a band I love in these conditions? Nah. 

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The site hasn’t had much rain in recent weeks so the ground should be able to absorb any precipitation. The water table must be quite low. Sensible clothing and especially footwear and we will be Ok.  Of course the doommongers must have their fun! 

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16 minutes ago, Ed90 said:

So, let's say it rains for a lot of the festival, and the few days beforehand.  As a first timer, I'd like to know how bad that makes it?  (I've seen all the pictures of 97 et al, obvs). I guess what I'm really hoping for is a bit of positivity.  If you've got a good poncho, wellies, sealskinz socks, is it still really really awful?  

It’s get muddy bad on the choke points. Like entrance to park, crossing the bridge, walk ways, it’s not bad I don’t think when ur drunk and don’t care, around the tents ain’t too bad, probably most annoying part for me is trying to get ur wellies off before getting in the tent

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https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/long-range-forecast

 

Tuesday 14 Jun - Thursday 23 Jun

At the start of this period, changeable conditions with spells of rain or showers are expected in northern and western regions of the UK. The south and southeast should stay mainly dry with some lengthy sunny periods, but some rain is possible here too. Temperatures trending close to average, perhaps slightly below average in the northwest and warming up across the south. Further into the period, the most likely scenario is a southwest-northeast split in weather patterns across the country. This would favour fine and dry weather across southern and southwestern parts of the UK, while the north, and especially the northeast, will remain cloudier and breezier with showers or spells of rain. Towards the end of the period, the weather is likely to become more unsettled for most again.

Friday 24 Jun - Friday 8 Jul

Approaching the end of June, there is a chance for above average rainfall for most at first. However, rainfall and temperature will likely trend closer to average as we head into July.

 

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39 minutes ago, Spindles said:

there has been a downward trend for 3 months now and we have dropped from 100k cases a day to less than 7000 in that time. 

This is because they stopped free testing 3 months ago, not because cases have dropped that significantly - ignorant bliss. Straight out of Trump's playbook - no testing, no cases.

Edited by 6XRy0PnAZHuxifz0LqVp
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2 minutes ago, The Nal said:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/long-range-forecast

 

Tuesday 14 Jun - Thursday 23 Jun

At the start of this period, changeable conditions with spells of rain or showers are expected in northern and western regions of the UK. The south and southeast should stay mainly dry with some lengthy sunny periods, but some rain is possible here too. Temperatures trending close to average, perhaps slightly below average in the northwest and warming up across the south. Further into the period, the most likely scenario is a southwest-northeast split in weather patterns across the country. This would favour fine and dry weather across southern and southwestern parts of the UK, while the north, and especially the northeast, will remain cloudier and breezier with showers or spells of rain. Towards the end of the period, the weather is likely to become more unsettled for most again.

Friday 24 Jun - Friday 8 Jul

Approaching the end of June, there is a chance for above average rainfall for most at first. However, rainfall and temperature will likely trend closer to average as we head into July.

 

200.gif

Tuesday 14 Jun - Thursday 23 Jun

  1. At the start of this period, changeable conditions with spells of rain or showers are expected in northern and western regions of the UK. The south and southeast should stay mainly dry with some lengthy sunny periods, but some rain is possible here too. Temperatures trending close to average, perhaps slightly below average in the northwest and warming up across the south. Further into the period, the most likely scenario is a southwest-northeast split in weather patterns across the country. This would favour fine and dry weather across southern and southwestern parts of the UK, while the north, and especially the northeast, will remain cloudier and breezier with showers or spells of rain. Towards the end of the period, the weather is likely to become more unsettled for most again.

Friday 24 Jun - Friday 8 Jul

Approaching the end of June, there is a chance for above average rainfall for most at first. However, rainfall and temperature will likely trend closer to average as we head into July.

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2 minutes ago, 6XRy0PnAZHuxifz0LqVp said:

This is because they stopped free testing 3 months ago, not because cases have dropped that significantly - ignorant bliss. Straight out of Trump's playbook - no testing, no cases.

Fair point I'd not taken into consideration, but just the same let's stick to weather talk is the point I was really making.

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