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The Weather Thread 2022


sedra

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All the models are pretty much in agreement now. 


Wednesday - dry and warm

Thursday - starting dry and warm but showers coming up from the south, potentially heavy, later in the day

Friday - a few showers possible during the day, with a main band of rain coming in during the afternoon/evening

Saturday - showers, with some models showing a lot more showers than others 

Sunday - showers, with some models showing a lot more showers than others

As ever with showers, it’s impossible to say how much rain Glasto will get.  Could be a deluge, could be nothing, no one knows. Not the BBC, not the Met Office, no one.  Unfortunately, we’ll have to take gear for wet and gear for dry, and hope for the best!

 

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After such a positive turn in the 18Z last night, could we possibly hope for the same trend to develop further? Let's bloody hope so! It's time for the 00Z.

WEDNESDAY

Totally dry, highs of 24.

image.thumb.png.e6bad8f288ea6198ff33d4079cbee853.png

Pressure picture consistent.

image.thumb.png.9efef548d2c4e39291235930f39d8adf.png

THURSDAY

Totally dry, highs of 26.

image.thumb.png.b5ec4b170313ac131b7fda72b82a68b0.png

Again, pressure very similar.

image.thumb.png.dd66251fef7def11d1d773972d921dc0.png

FRIDAY

Only light rain hits the site in the evening. Highs of 19.

image.thumb.png.3b861d3b962254f80b8bbe0b0d860d90.png

We are now moving into the key timeframe for where changes can happen. But, for now, the picture remains similar to the last run.

image.thumb.png.6ff2e4d26a71c369d77289740766575a.png

SATURDAY

Highs of only 17, but again all the rain misses the site.

3pm

image.thumb.png.54a0c9501e3c900d7a69d796792904cb.png

6pm

image.thumb.png.e570da31d1cf74f3004648c1c4975ba7.png

9pm - no threat of rain at all.

image.thumb.png.fd279a4005c15106a63cd6ab553f2f62.png

This run is more along the lines of the 12Z yesterday, with the low just touching the UK, rather than the 18Z which had it to the west. Shame we couldn't have got further improvement on the 00Z.

image.thumb.png.db15d4d15debeffd817ea7d25b9aa6e0.png

SUNDAY

A change to the position of the low means there is rain around on Sunday afternoon, highs of 18. Unfortunately this has rain during the afternoon and early evening, and light stuff at night.

3pm

image.thumb.png.6b2f247bcad2511ed1fb74302536e773.png

6pm

image.thumb.png.7837ea5ba90dd57ac754bba867e15931.png

Unfortunately we've definitely gone back to the 12Z run with a small trough over the UK. More wind in this run.

image.thumb.png.12979160a8b8957b11c820fc5c4a9c09.png

MONDAY - DEPARTURE

Dry on this run.

image.thumb.png.a2d451a6e85c289d303b67347862814d.png


SUMMARY

It's a shame we couldn't see a further improvement in the position of the low in this run, regressing slightly more into the position of the 12Z.

However, there is less rain around on the Saturday in this run, yet a but more on the Sunday. 

Still a lot of uncertainty for the weekend, and we can still get a get position out of this.

Edited by briddj
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3 minutes ago, briddj said:

After such a positive turn in the 18Z last night, could we possibly hope for the same trend to develop further? Let's bloody hope so! It's time for the 00Z.

WEDNESDAY

Totally dry, highs of 24.

image.thumb.png.e6bad8f288ea6198ff33d4079cbee853.png

Pressure picture consistent.

image.thumb.png.9efef548d2c4e39291235930f39d8adf.png

THURSDAY

Totally dry, highs of 26.

image.thumb.png.b5ec4b170313ac131b7fda72b82a68b0.png

Again, pressure very similar.

image.thumb.png.dd66251fef7def11d1d773972d921dc0.png

FRIDAY

Only light rain hits the site in the evening. Highs of 19.

image.thumb.png.3b861d3b962254f80b8bbe0b0d860d90.png

We are now moving into the key timeframe for where changes can happen. But, for now, the picture remains similar to the last run.

image.thumb.png.6ff2e4d26a71c369d77289740766575a.png

SATURDAY

Highs of only 17, but again all the rain misses the site.

3pm

image.thumb.png.54a0c9501e3c900d7a69d796792904cb.png

6pm

image.thumb.png.e570da31d1cf74f3004648c1c4975ba7.png

9pm - no threat of rain at all.

image.thumb.png.fd279a4005c15106a63cd6ab553f2f62.png

This run is more along the lines of the 12Z yesterday, with the low just touching the UK, rather than the 18Z which had it to the west. Shame we couldn't have got further improvement on the 00Z.

image.thumb.png.db15d4d15debeffd817ea7d25b9aa6e0.png

SUNDAY

A change to the position of the low means there is rain around on Sunday afternoon, highs of 18. Unfortunately this has rain during the afternoon and early evening, and light stuff at night.

3pm

image.thumb.png.6b2f247bcad2511ed1fb74302536e773.png

6pm

image.thumb.png.7837ea5ba90dd57ac754bba867e15931.png

Unfortunately we've definitely gone back to the 12Z run with a small trough over the UK. More wind in this run.

image.thumb.png.12979160a8b8957b11c820fc5c4a9c09.png

MONDAY - DEPARTURE

Dry on this run.

image.thumb.png.a2d451a6e85c289d303b67347862814d.png


SUMMARY

It's a shame we couldn't see a further improvement in the position of the low in this run, regressing slightly more into the position of the 12Z.

However, there is less rain around on the Saturday in this run, yet a but more on the Sunday. 

Still a lot of uncertainty for the weekend, and we can still get a get position out of this.

I would be perfectly happy with this run! 

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56 minutes ago, LinvoyPrimus said:

This run is encouraging but not loving BBC and Met Office now forecasting potential rain on Thursday as well, when it was previously looking like we'd be rain-free for at least the first two days of the festival (and likely three as Friday was looking pretty good).

Shaping up to be very 2014-ish.

Yep - and that was muddy. The slippery top level kind - like slurry 

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7 hours ago, FuzzyDunlop said:

I am gunna sign off from this thread & efests before the festival. I have stuff to do on Tuesday before we leave overnight. 

I hope everyone has a great festival. It's been a shite few years for everyone, we all deserve a good one. Lets hope the weather means we can all enjoy it.

A special thanks to @briddj for his sterling work on here & to @The Nal for reminding us that weather reports are always 100%  accurate.

See you all in the fields. 

Enjoy man, the bartering over plus or minus 3 degrees has been mildly amusing but I hope you’ll get through the first few days ok and enjoy the main music weekend!

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34 minutes ago, briddj said:

After such a positive turn in the 18Z last night, could we possibly hope for the same trend to develop further? Let's bloody hope so! It's time for the 00Z.

WEDNESDAY

Totally dry, highs of 24.

image.thumb.png.e6bad8f288ea6198ff33d4079cbee853.png

Pressure picture consistent.

image.thumb.png.9efef548d2c4e39291235930f39d8adf.png

THURSDAY

Totally dry, highs of 26.

image.thumb.png.b5ec4b170313ac131b7fda72b82a68b0.png

Again, pressure very similar.

image.thumb.png.dd66251fef7def11d1d773972d921dc0.png

FRIDAY

Only light rain hits the site in the evening. Highs of 19.

image.thumb.png.3b861d3b962254f80b8bbe0b0d860d90.png

We are now moving into the key timeframe for where changes can happen. But, for now, the picture remains similar to the last run.

image.thumb.png.6ff2e4d26a71c369d77289740766575a.png

SATURDAY

Highs of only 17, but again all the rain misses the site.

3pm

image.thumb.png.54a0c9501e3c900d7a69d796792904cb.png

6pm

image.thumb.png.e570da31d1cf74f3004648c1c4975ba7.png

9pm - no threat of rain at all.

image.thumb.png.fd279a4005c15106a63cd6ab553f2f62.png

This run is more along the lines of the 12Z yesterday, with the low just touching the UK, rather than the 18Z which had it to the west. Shame we couldn't have got further improvement on the 00Z.

image.thumb.png.db15d4d15debeffd817ea7d25b9aa6e0.png

SUNDAY

A change to the position of the low means there is rain around on Sunday afternoon, highs of 18. Unfortunately this has rain during the afternoon and early evening, and light stuff at night.

3pm

image.thumb.png.6b2f247bcad2511ed1fb74302536e773.png

6pm

image.thumb.png.7837ea5ba90dd57ac754bba867e15931.png

Unfortunately we've definitely gone back to the 12Z run with a small trough over the UK. More wind in this run.

image.thumb.png.12979160a8b8957b11c820fc5c4a9c09.png

MONDAY - DEPARTURE

Dry on this run.

image.thumb.png.a2d451a6e85c289d303b67347862814d.png


SUMMARY

It's a shame we couldn't see a further improvement in the position of the low in this run, regressing slightly more into the position of the 12Z.

However, there is less rain around on the Saturday in this run, yet a but more on the Sunday. 

Still a lot of uncertainty for the weekend, and we can still get a get position out of this.

OK so the worst rainfall we're looking at is 3mm on Sunday? I feel like we can live with that right?

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Ok, so it's not great, but we don't know how bad it's going to be even at this late stage. Looks like probably will get on and off showers and rain from Thursday evening onwards. So pray to the weather gods that not too much of it hits the site, hopefully won't get too muddy, but I don't think we're going to be mud free either. Met office has it staying fairly cool over weekend, but not getting that cold at night, but I guess will feel cold if raining and windy.

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4 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Ok, so it's not great, but we don't know how bad it's going to be even at this late stage. Looks like probably will get on and off showers and rain from Thursday evening onwards. So pray to the weather gods that not too much of it hits the site, hopefully won't get too muddy, but I don't think we're going to be mud free either. Met office has it staying fairly cool over weekend, but not getting that cold at night, but I guess will feel cold if raining and windy.

Like we've not spent the last month watching you praying for exactly this scenario.

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It’s looking like every site is forecasting different rain Friday to Sunday. BBC have it early Friday, met have it later on Friday, the models look like potentially none on Friday…still so up in the air. We’re getting showers, just no real idea of when or how much.

Edited by jparx
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3 minutes ago, CaledonianGonzo said:

Like we've not spent the last month watching you praying for exactly this scenario.

woah. FIGHT!

No I haven't, I didn't want it hot. My manifesto was always 18C max, 14C min, no rain, sun/cloud, gentle breeze. Maybe I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one. That 18C max upset a lot of people. But, yesterday's weather would have been pretty close to that, bit warmer which I would have allowed because I'm nice like that.

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5 minutes ago, chazwwe said:

Genuinely seen him more happier for rainier checks than if the temp is above 20 degrees. 

no...just all relative...because I wasn't happy when 25+ temps were being forecast...but believe it or now I would prefer that to what we have now. But...whatever, I guess it's all my fault.

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