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The Weather Thread 2022


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45 minutes ago, Leyrulion said:

It would have been the forecast for pilton itself mixed with radar tracking for the rain. Obviously take with an enormous pinch of Salt! 

That figures. I’ve just looked back at 2020 and I did report the actual weather here in Pilton. They got the Saturday and Sunday weather wrong. But then they never are prefect.

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27 minutes ago, Barneym said:

When do we get the first long range forecasts (and yes I know it’s pointless until a week before but it’s glorious in London today and my mind is not on work!)

Some websites like metcheck.com and accuweather.com are already doing them so you can satisfy your needs  here https://www.metcheck.com/WEATHER/180days.asp?MonthOf=6&zipcode=Glastonbury&locationID=57455&lat=51.1&lon=-2.7

I think it's early june where the fancy gfs runs will cover the festival and forecasts will start to get more reliable / accurate  the closer we get - though that won't stop me from obsessing over it in the meantime.

 

 

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10 minutes ago, BambooShanks said:

Some websites like metcheck.com and accuweather.com are already doing them so you can satisfy your needs  here https://www.metcheck.com/WEATHER/180days.asp?MonthOf=6&zipcode=Glastonbury&locationID=57455&lat=51.1&lon=-2.7

I think it's early june where the fancy gfs runs will cover the festival and forecasts will start to get more reliable / accurate  the closer we get - though that won't stop me from obsessing over it in the meantime.

 

 

Thanks, yep it’s those moving maps with people commenting on I want, I learn lots on new terms for a few weeks then forget it all. I’m sure they were saying it was going to be a disaster in 2019 so it’s obviously important stuff!

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On 4/12/2022 at 9:06 AM, pilton digger said:

Using Yeovilton as data has got to be for comedy value surely. Comparing apples and bicycles there. 

Remember going to watch cricket in Taunton and not even trusting the Taunton forecast.  The County Ground had its own weather system completely independent to the rest of the town!  I think Pilton has its own too. 

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On 4/14/2022 at 1:52 PM, tumbles said:

Remember going to watch cricket in Taunton and not even trusting the Taunton forecast.  The County Ground had its own weather system completely independent to the rest of the town!  I think Pilton has its own too. 

I’m 1 min away if you ever need an accurate forecast for the cricket 🏏 . Dark sky I find is thE most accurate weather app …. Anyone got any others they recommend ? 

Edited by crazyfool1
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29 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

I’m 1 min away if you ever need an accurate forecast for the cricket 🏏 . Dark sky I find is thE most accurate weather app 

Thanks! I always recall some myth about if you can see the quantocks = good, if you can’t = baaad 

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On 4/14/2022 at 1:14 PM, BambooShanks said:

Some websites like metcheck.com and accuweather.com are already doing them so you can satisfy your needs  here https://www.metcheck.com/WEATHER/180days.asp?MonthOf=6&zipcode=Glastonbury&locationID=57455&lat=51.1&lon=-2.7

I’d take met checks current prediction. Preceding week currently dry so that should minimise the ground being churned up for the intense part of the build. Only rain is on the Sunday so will head for indoor venues. 

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On 4/14/2022 at 12:24 PM, Barneym said:

When do we get the first long range forecasts (and yes I know it’s pointless until a week before but it’s glorious in London today and my mind is not on work!)

April update on the seasonal forecast ensembles.   An ensemble forecast takes forecasts from a number of different forecast centres, and does some clever bias correction based on their performance in similated forecasts of past weather ("hindcasts").  Each of the forecasts it includes are also usually an ensemble of the same model run a number of times, with slightly altered initial conditions, to capture some of the inherent uncertainty of forecasting on these timescales. Usual caveats - seasonal models aren't great, and they're even less great if you look at a specific month, rather than the season as a whole.

This is from the World Meteorological Organisation Long Range Forecast.  As you can see, most of Europe is expected to be drier than normal, with the drier signal now creeping into the south and east of the UK:

MME Plot image

 

Similar outlook from  the Copernicus (C3S) Seasonal Project which only provides a three month forecast (in this case for May-June-July).  Roughly the same, with a bit more of the UK experiencing drier than normal.

convert_image-gorax-green-003-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-Tm4Fh9.png

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4 minutes ago, jfaragher said:

most of Europe is expected to be drier than normal, with the drier signal now creeping into the south and east of the UK:

MME Plot image

 

Similar outlook from  the Copernicus (C3S) Seasonal Project which only provides a three month forecast (in this case for May-June-July).  Roughly the same, with a bit more of the UK experiencing drier than normal.

convert_image-gorax-green-003-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-Tm4Fh9.png

giphy.webp

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9 minutes ago, deebeedoobee said:

The question that needs answering is when should the Pilton weather station start reporting?

New improved equipment has been installed. Old recorder is still in place mind. Answers on a postcard.

I personally think it’s never too early. We’re less than two months away in any case - time to report for duty Dee. 

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3 hours ago, deebeedoobee said:

The question that needs answering is when should the Pilton weather station start reporting?

New improved equipment has been installed. Old recorder is still in place mind. Answers on a postcard.

I bloody love a weather forecast me....so I say 'crack on' dee, start the reports, let's have all the live action.

I'm particularly interested in the weather for this year as a damp one will probably kill me and Neil off!

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5 hours ago, deebeedoobee said:

The question that needs answering is when should the Pilton weather station start reporting?

New improved equipment has been installed. Old recorder is still in place mind. Answers on a postcard.

Ooooh Dee, anytime from now would be absolutely lovely!  It has literally only just sunk in for me this weekend that Glastobury is actually going to happen this year, and my excitement levels are starting to build!  Loved your reports in 2019, thank you!  xx

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1 hour ago, CaledonianGonzo said:

Hopefully baking the ground into a dry, solid layer that can withstand anything.

I hope not. That’s what happened in 2005. The clay was baked hard and instead of the rain sinking in where it fell it just ran down hill into the low areas. 
 

I know the drainage is better now but 

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5 hours ago, deebeedoobee said:

The question that needs answering is when should the Pilton weather station start reporting?

New improved equipment has been installed. Old recorder is still in place mind. Answers on a postcard.

I agree - any time now would be marvellous 😊

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5 hours ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Totally illogical but this warm, dry, sunny weather we’ve been constantly having of late is making me uneasy. 

Ha I was just sitting in the garden in perfect Glastonbury weather thinking exactly the same especially as there is no rain forecast for the next 2 weeks (in London at least)

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