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The Weather Thread 2022


sedra

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Lots of people draw all their conclusions from a single model run. The good thing about GFS is that the model can be looked at in the context of 30 separate runs of the model with slightly different parameters (called the GEFS ensembles). This allows an idea of whether the main GFS model run (operational) is nailed on or an 'outlier'.

From the GEFS ensembles we can see that very few runs are predicting the Friday night rain that the operational (green) run does - it is an outlier. Might happen, but I wouldn't be too worried at the moment.

prcpSomerset (1).webp

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6 hours ago, Alvoram said:

You roll the dice, if your numbers don't come up there can be consequences. We're not the first and won't be the last, until football changes it's ways. 

Cheers though. 🙂

We still had a great day in 2019, we weren't expecting anything from that game, and never really looked in it to be honest. 

It was the QPR game that hurt the most! I was at that one too. It felt, that whole game, like we couldn't lose... QPR deserved nothing from that game... But that's football. To be fair, we've been lucky at Wembley too, deserved nothing against WBA in 2007, but somehow got promoted. 

You know what, the playoffs are awful aren't they? 🤷‍♂️

Yeah it’s a brutal game. At least when we lost the year before we didn’t deserve it or ever look like winning, but that’s Bruceball for you.

You did us a massive favour the year after by beating Leeds in the semis. That would’ve been a horrible final for us, but against you there was only ever one winner on the day. You’ll be back!

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1 minute ago, steviewevie said:

so different to GFS.

I'm starting to think that people who say these forecasters haven't got a fucking clue are onto something.

Yeah, it looks like it will be a really unpredictible weather that it going to be resolved by little details...

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13 minutes ago, tazbang said:

Lots of people draw all their conclusions from a single model run. The good thing about GFS is that the model can be looked at in the context of 30 separate runs of the model with slightly different parameters (called the GEFS ensembles). This allows an idea of whether the main GFS model run (operational) is nailed on or an 'outlier'.

From the GEFS ensembles we can see that very few runs are predicting the Friday night rain that the operational (green) run does - it is an outlier. Might happen, but I wouldn't be too worried at the moment.

prcpSomerset (1).webp

the operational is spiking on 25th/26th on that one...that's saturday/sunday....?

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ok...so GFS and other models have been predicting torrential rain for this weekend, but that now seems to have gone and it might just be a few showers...which is what BBC have had on their forecast all week. And the BBC still has sun/cloud 19/11  boring weather all next week and weekend. Maybe BBC knows...in the end we have changeable weather in this country but we don't get much extreme stuff...so maybe it won't be that hot or that cold or that wet...just usual warmish, bit damp, boring british stuff. Maybe.

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