The Weather Thread 2022

[Reckoner]

Time for the investment in the force field to start paying dividends. 

[CaledonianGonzo]

Still time for the high to rally.

Let's see how the ground handled last night's plastering.

[deebeedoobee]

Currently a beautiful morning. Very little rain in the jar. Official report laters but safe to say the ground is still Chuck

[T-Mouse]

The Canadians this morning have us dry Wednesday and Thursday. Big ass motherfucker of a low sitting over us basically from midday Friday onwards. Percip predictions pointless this early, but not great, not terrible.

Don't worry tho GFS will roll in a bit and push the shit stuff away and/or slow ot down. I'm sure of it... 

[JoeyT]

1 minute ago, deebeedoobee said:

Currently a beautiful morning. Very little rain in the jar. Official report laters but safe to say the ground is still Chuck

I’m in North Wooton for the annual family meal at lunchtime.

Hoping it stays dry!

[ghandi]

Even Accuweather looking good now with only 29% chance of rain on Saturday.  Otherwise dry.

[deebeedoobee]

4 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

I’m in North Wooton for the annual family meal at lunchtime.

Hoping it stays dry!

It’s looking bright just now, if a little breezy

[joeruss]

So its looking like Weds-Fri is going to be around 23-26c

Saturday and Sunday a bit cooler about 19-20c and a little rain?

I can take that

[steviewevie]

I demand perfection

[kalifire]

1 hour ago, briddj said:

Ok then, I've no idea what happened with the 18Z so this is going to be a surprise to me as we go through!

WEDNESDAY MORNING - GATES OPEN

Dry right through to now, when it's warm with temps of 19.

PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT

Still an extremely consistent picture. Latest on the left.

Onto the first two days of the festival.

WEDNESDAY

Totally dry, highs of 24.

Still very good consistency on Wednesday.

THURSDAY

Totally dry, highs of 26.

Unfortunately we are starting to see consistency for the low pushing down on Thursday.

FRIDAY

An improvement! Now a dry day with highs of 23! None of the rain hits the site.

But hang on a minute.... The bad news for the 00Z is that the low is worse. It's coming in deeper and more pronounced.

SATURDAY

Chance of light rain, highs of 20.

A big trough of low pressure capturing the UK.

SUNDAY

A small amount of rain hitting the site. Highs of 19.

Even though the low is fully here!

MONDAY MORNING

SUMMARY

Strange. A good and bad update.

While the low is very much winning, the temperatures are decent with nothing more than showers.

Think it's starting to look pretty certain now the low will win - the question being what exactly it will mean.

Bad update for the low, good update for the outcome!

Good reminder that low pressure doesn’t necessarily mean rain. Could just bring the temperature down a bit, which is good! 

Edited June 19, 2022 by kalifire

[Sheffield Steve]

So, what have the Canadians done overnight?  A little change, but not much.  As with the other models, they give us fine days on Wednesday and Thursday.  But then… rain comes across us on Friday afternoon…should be clear by the evening…

 

They keep the low to the north of us all weekend. But this will feed rain or showers through the weekend…

 

so, Saturday would be a day of sunshine and showers…

 

same with Sunday, but with the potential for a period of more organised rain/showers coming through during Sunday…

 

Bit chilly over the weekend, with temps only up to the high teens.   So, all in all, could be better, could be a lot worse.

[steviewevie]

temperature wise looks pretty good to me...warm wednesday and thursday when people are mooching about...cooler for when the bands are on. Looks like low is winning and will be right on top of us, but we won't know probably even by wednesday how much rain it will mean. I'm sure there will be some, could be loads, or could be sporadic showers. So, pack for hot, cold, dry and wet.

[Sheffield Steve]

So, what can the Germans offer us?  Much better!  The midnight run of the German model keeps the low away to our northwest, so has much less influence on our weather.

On Friday it even has a juicy Azores finger over the U.K., so there would be little or no rain, unlike the other models, and another warm day.

By Saturday the low is having a little influence, but with a mini area of high pressure over Scandinavia, it’s likely to be another warm day with a little rain if the frint from that low moves across us.

By Sunday the low is a little closer, so could introduce some showers, but nothing like the biblical rain being forecast by GFS and ECM yesterday  

 

So, all in all, there is some hope. It’s shaping up to be a festival of some warm sun, particularly in the first few days, then some rain or showers and cooler, but the exact amount of rain differs widely from model to model.

[steviewevie]

[chazwwe]

This is looking great. Temps are great. Take 2 degrees from Thursday and put it on Sunday but in all honesty stick. A shower or two is fine. 

[steviewevie]

On netweather they also have UKMO model viewer which goes up to saturday midnight and has this...looks better, right??

no idea what it means in terms of rain...

[stopwn1981]

Kalifire has bullied me into changing my no good ways. The ECM 00z is improving…we’re saved 

 

[steviewevie]

...and met office website, as I think someone has mentioned, has dry but cloudy on friday and some showers on saturday afternoon...

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gcn5n88mb#?nearestTo=Pilton (Somerset)&date=2022-06-25

[steviewevie]

GEFS for rain...some runs have some rain over next weekend...operational fairly flat...

[Euphoricape]

5 minutes ago, stopwn1981 said:

Kalifire has bullied me into changing my no good ways. The ECM 00z is improving…we’re saved 

 

 

[PolygonWindow]

9 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

On netweather they also have UKMO model viewer which goes up to saturday midnight and has this...looks better, right??

no idea what it means in terms of rain...

This is a game changer right ?

[HotblackDesiato]

Still a tad early but have whittled it down. Always an option for @The Nal as well of course.

[Hotchilidog]

This thread is surely why the internet was invented. Absolutely riveting from beginning to end with more twists and turns than a Jed Mercurio TV drama. Thanks to @briddj and @Alvoram for keeping us so well informed

[Euphoricape]

5 minutes ago, PolygonWindow said:

This is a game changer right ?

Total game changer by the look of it, see what the GFS looks like later today. 

[AlexOvd]

14 minutes ago, stopwn1981 said:

Kalifire has bullied me into changing my no good ways. The ECM 00z is improving…we’re saved 

 

GAME. ON.