The Weather Thread 2022

[plot2pot]

1 hour ago, stuartbert two hats said:

We don't have problems with rain 

A metre of rain in the last 24 hours???

Actual footage of Michael and Emily driving to the pyramid stage.

[Alvoram]

Tuesday

Once again, it's very dry in Pilton, and the temperature is warm enough to dry the last drops of moisture from the ground. We can see the low pressure system above us, join with the one below though. 

 

Wednesday (Arrival) 

Another BONE DRY day. Temps of 22. And it looks as if the high to the west is trying to push on over us. 

 

So Far so good... Setting up in the dry and enjoying a nice warm reunion (for the rest of you) up on that hill has to be high on people's priorities, right? 

[drummerboy]

3 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Damn, I should have known I couldn't rock up to the thread 20 minutes late and expect to be first making that joke.

apologies...

[billum]

3 minutes ago, Alvoram said:

So Far so good... Setting up in the dry and enjoying a nice warm reunion (for the rest of you) up on that hill has to be high on people's priorities, right? 

How spookily appropriate that the most popular song right now is just about that very event.... thanks Kate

[JoBalls]

So I’m in Essex and we’ve currently got the most epic storm raging - forked lightning directly overhead, loud bangs, rain absolutely sheeting down… it’s been going on for well over half an hour.

It was completely unforecast until an hour ago when the storms just randomly “developed”. Weather app still says “light rain showers” for right now. 3 hours ago Essex Weather Centre tweeted the risk of thunderstorms tonight was low.

So just goes to show we’ll never be completely out of the woods!!

[Glastonlocal]

Tell us the news new-Briddj

[steviewevie]

Looks like slight improvement so far?

[Alvoram]

Thursday

Is first and foremost DRY. Warmer today, with highs of 23. 

 

Friday

You should all have listened to @deebeedoobee The forcefield is real, and is very much in play on Friday. There are some showers around the south, but this run shows the force field deflecting them. And Pilton stays BONE DRY. Highs of 23c

That fingering of low pressure from the North is still a factor, but it doesn't seem as intense on this run. 

 

Edited June 18, 2022 by Alvoram

[Glastonlocal]

Regardless of Sunday. Deal. 

[Dreamingofsunnydays]

@Alvorambringing usthe goods! 

[chazwwe]

Those temps are perfect...

[gazzared]

@Alvoramhope its right, weather channel looks a bit rubbish again

[Bennykill]

15 minutes ago, JoBalls said:

So I’m in Essex and we’ve currently got the most epic storm raging - forked lightning directly overhead, loud bangs, rain absolutely sheeting down… it’s been going on for well over half an hour.

It was completely unforecast until an hour ago when the storms just randomly “developed”. Weather app still says “light rain showers” for right now. 3 hours ago Essex Weather Centre tweeted the risk of thunderstorms tonight was low.

So just goes to show we’ll never be completely out of the woods!!

It is going crazy in Southend. Non stop for the last hour or so. 

[wilko8]

This thread is like crack

[Alvoram]

Saturday

So... We need to talk about the forcefield AGAIN. There are a fair amount of showers around on Saturday. There is definitely a risk of some precipitation. However, and this is wild, the charts do seem to prove the existence of said forcefield once again!!!! With most of it missing Pilton. Go and see for yourself.

That being said, realistically, it's showing that there's enough precipitation in the area for there to be a risk of a few showers. Nothing major. Cooler today with highs of 18. 

 

Sunday

The low really starts to take a hold now. But DO NOT PANIC. This run shows that it's already potentially being pushed further back in the weekend. There is hope. It's a wet day. Especially during the early hours of Sunday morning / late Saturday night. It's also cooler. With highs of around 16c

 

Overall a much better run, that leaves us with some hope that we can delay that fingering from the North, just enough... 

 

[stuartbert two hats]

42 minutes ago, drummerboy said:

 

Ignore the above couldn't delete. Anyway...

 

So there we have it, as soon as it becomes nearly predictable, everything looks fine.  Go beyond the reliable timeframe and there be dragons. Or monsters from the upside down or something.

In other words, if I like it, it's reliable. If I hate it, it's just chaos theory and obviously way too early.

No mention of a knife edge for Friday is there? Is there?

I bet Saturday and Sunday says rain, and that's because it's too early.  But Friday is obviously well within the grasp of modern technology and will definitely, definitely be warm and dry.

[steviewevie]

4 minutes ago, Alvoram said:

Saturday

So... We need to talk about the forcefield AGAIN. There are a fair amount of showers around on Saturday. There is definitely a risk of some precipitation. However, and this is wild, the charts do seem to prove the existence of said forcefield once again!!!! With most of it missing Pilton. Go and see for yourself.

That being said, realistically, it's showing that there's enough precipitation in the area for there to be a risk of a few showers. Nothing major. Cooler today with highs of 18. 

 

Sunday

The low really starts to take a hold now. But DO NOT PANIC. This run shows that it's already potentially being pushed further back in the weekend. There is hope. It's a wet day. Especially during the early hours of Sunday morning / late Saturday night. It's also cooler. With highs of around 16c

 

Overall a much better run, that leaves us with some hope that we can delay that fingering from the North, just enough... 

 

Cheers

[Alvoram]

For anybody interested... If this run is close to reality, then delaying that low pressure means that you may want to get packed up and gone early on Monday... 😉 

Looking pretty bad around 3pm on Monday. 

[Wurzelcat]

Is there any indication with these models of what the wind will be like, can't recall it being mentioned to date. Am here now and the combination of rain plus wind has meant its felt pretty cold as well as wet, and pitching my tent earlier was an absolute nightmare.  

[PolygonWindow]

That dreaded Friday that’s now much better on the GFS, pretty much dry on met office, dry on accu and metchecker and has 23% rain between 4-6pm only on BBC…

it’s almost like it’s really difficult to predict anything beyond a week ?!

Edited June 18, 2022 by PolygonWindow

[idontgetoutmuch]

Thank you Alvoram!  Very nicely put.

 

[Ayrshire Chris]

10 minutes ago, wilko8 said:

This thread is like crack

Certainly gets up my nose

[Purple aki squat]

16 minutes ago, wilko8 said:

This thread is like crack

Moreish?

[Alvoram]

8 minutes ago, PolygonWindow said:

That dreaded Friday that’s now much better on the GFS, pretty much dry on met office, dry on accu and metchecker and has 23% rain between 4-6pm only on BBC…

it’s almost like it’s really difficult to predict anything beyond a week ?!

From what I have read, it is very rarely possible to predict beyond 5 days... But sometimes the models throw out some data that is so strong it can give you a really good idea. Like what happened with this weekend. Plus it's fun. 🙂 

 

Ensembles

These only go up to Saturday 01:00 so far, but they support a dry week up to and including Friday. 🙂 With only 3 or 4 of the 31 versions of this run showing any more than 2mm of precipitation at any one time. 

This tells us that this run is showing a lot of confidence in a fairly dry week, and first half of the festival. Beyond that is pretty much all just for fun at this point anyway. 

 

[Alvoram]

20 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Cheers

You're welcome. Hopefully I've done master @briddj proud. Sure he'll be back for the 00z in the morning. 🙂

 

  

25 minutes ago, gazzared said:

@Alvoramhope its right, weather channel looks a bit rubbish again

We'll have to wait a little while, and possibly see what the next few runs, and other models say, before the forecasts will react to the latest data. But this is a definitely a glimmer of hope that was much needed right now. 🙂