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The Weather Thread 2022

sedra

By sedra,
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The Nal
The Nal

Met Office updated, saying just a few showers, light rain now https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gcn5n88mb#?nearestTo=Pilton (Somerset)&date=2022-06-26   Exhale...... Wel

deebeedoobee
deebeedoobee

To celebrate May day madness here is the first and true weather report from the ground in Pilton at 12.58 today. it was 15.5 degrees with 87% humidity . The RAM jam jar has insufficient moisture to me

Skier68
Skier68

Can I just say on behalf of the hundreds of us amateur viewers/obsessive who have lived the last 2 weeks+ on this thread, A massive Thank you to @briddj for turning greens/reds and squiggly lines into

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jimmillen Proficient

jimmillen

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, kingmonkey1980 said:

You won’t need wellies based on this. Walking boots at most will be fine.

^^^^ This. 

Absolutely nothing suggests above ankle deep liquid mud / puddles - only justification for wellies IMO.

Of course, it could get worse… 

10 minutes ago, PolygonWindow said:

It is when I’m having to stand through sugababes !!

They’re in a tent anyway?

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Joshuwarr Rising Star

Joshuwarr

Posted
Posted

At Wilderness last year we had a lot of rain most days and despite this the mud and ground weren't even that bad. Puts into perspective just how much rain beforehand you need for a mudbath and based on the forecast for the next few days I am confident we will be fine.

I actually worry about the chilly nights more than a bit of a rain in the day!

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briddj Mentor

briddj

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Cbrinxy said:

Yes I follow this thread every year and 2019 wee thought it was going to be a shit show every day until the day before where we found out it was going to be an insane heatwave! 

I think it was a few days before that the stars aligned. 

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steviewevie Grand Master

steviewevie

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Alvoram said:

I'm not worrying about the 6z to be honest... 

The ensembles show the operational (green) for this run to be a complete outlier, any slight change to the variables paints a very different picture. 

gfs-glastonbury-gb-51n-2.thumb.jpeg.b3d64d7630b8a69ecb6ee538863331fc.jpeg

So..all these different runs...what is the operational? Why does that particular one get used? Sorry if that's a dumb question.

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Alvoram Veteran

Alvoram

Posted
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

So..all these different runs...what is the operational? Why does that particular one get used? Sorry if that's a dumb question.

The operational is the actual GFS run, the one that is posted in here, from the charts we see on Netweather.

For the other 30, they tweek a small variable and rerun it, (at a lower resolution) to see what the results would be. 🙂

That's my understanding of it at least... I'm no Michael Fish.

So, looking at those ensembles, it's HIGHLY unlikely that the current GFS run will hold true. 

Edited by Alvoram
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