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The Weather Thread 2022


sedra

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I might have to eat my words.  The midnight run of the European model has changed considerably.  This is yesterdays midnight run - dry and warm…

BED52738-D9C4-46E8-896C-F99D44058604.thumb.jpeg.78192b66337448d246264a1eccacbbda.jpeg

 

Today’s midnight run has the low much closer to us and now agrees much more with the GFS, which would undoubtedly bring rain.

34E190FC-3F5E-41A0-A403-0C2B8C9561B6.thumb.jpeg.92cd33b41b89f149898935255c7a62b9.jpeg

 

But it’s still over a week away, so it could, and will, all change….!

 

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When the forecast is good - all those clever weather people with their charts and graphs, they clearly know what they’re talking about. Good souls the lot of them. Doing good work. 
 

When the forecast is bad - fucking dweebs with their stupid, pointless charts and graphs. No one can predict the weather properly this far in advance. Get a proper job/hobby. 

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Just now, Familiar2billions said:

Its shit now, but I still have faith that the Azores is gonna come in and win out. Are Saturdays runs pretty much the point of no return?

Well..no. Look at this weekend for example. Apparently biblical rain on Saturday but now showing dry as of today (which I doubt will happen, however)

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8 minutes ago, Sheffield Steve said:

I might have to eat my words.  The midnight run of the European model has changed considerably.  This is yesterdays midnight run - dry and warm…

BED52738-D9C4-46E8-896C-F99D44058604.thumb.jpeg.78192b66337448d246264a1eccacbbda.jpeg

 

Today’s midnight run has the low much closer to us and now agrees much more with the GFS, which would undoubtedly bring rain.

34E190FC-3F5E-41A0-A403-0C2B8C9561B6.thumb.jpeg.92cd33b41b89f149898935255c7a62b9.jpeg

 

But it’s still over a week away, so it could, and will, all change….!

 

I've always trusted GEM. ECM is clearly an idiot. 

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3 minutes ago, Billy Corgan's Ego said:

Well..no. Look at this weekend for example. Apparently biblical rain on Saturday but now showing dry as of today (which I doubt will happen, however)

Fair point, and actually one that helps to remind us that these last two runs shouldn't be seen as too damning.

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Lots of people draw all their conclusions from a single model run. The good thing about GFS is that the model can be looked at in the context of 30 separate runs of the model with slightly different parameters (called the GEFS ensembles). This allows an idea of whether the main GFS model run (operational) is nailed on or an 'outlier'.

From the GEFS ensembles we can see that very few runs are predicting the Friday night rain that the operational (green) run does - it is an outlier. Might happen, but I wouldn't be too worried at the moment.

prcpSomerset (1).webp

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