The Weather Thread 2022

[Suprefan]

7 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

BBC have to be impartial. If they forecast sun they also have to forecast rain as well. 😉

Apple weather app has very favorable conditions leading into Weds. 

[steviewevie]

current forecasts show could be quite windy too, which makes is nice for flags etc, not so good for sound if watching bands from a bit of a distance.

[nikkic]

28 minutes ago, Crumbleflaps said:

So basically nobody knows f all 

Correct.

Nobody has a fucking clue.

[gherkin8r]

Ah man what's the fucking point 

[JayBalls]

1 minute ago, gherkin8r said:

Ah man what's the fucking point 

Something to do innit

[danssol]

24 minutes ago, Suprefan said:

Apple weather app has very favorable conditions leading into Weds. 

Christ that's hot 

[briddj]

Does the 00Z put us back on track? Yes it does! At first...

Always remember, the 18Z is less positive.

Let's take a look at the 00z then.

WEEKEND BEFORE - There is some rain around in the early hours of Sunday, but the bad stuff is missing to the west of the site. There will be some rain, but nothing to be concerned about from this at least.

WEDNESDAY - GATES OPEN

There is no rain at all through to 9am Wednesday, 18 for getting in and setting up.

High pressure is in a much better position going into the festival. Previous on the left, latest on the right.

WEDNESDAY

A dry day. max temps of 23.

THURSDAY

A dry day. max temps of 23.

 

A look at how the pressure has developed this time. That low is pushed above the UK but it remains a real danger as the runs will develop over the next few days. Previous on the left, latest on the right.

FRIDAY

A dry day. max temps of 20.

The threat of that low pressure is rearing its head for the weekend again. Previous on the left, latest on the right.

SATURDAY

Rain in the morning, and all through Saturday. Poor, with high temps of just 15.

We can now see that the 00Z has the low winning the fight and taking control of the UK on Saturday. Previous on the left, latest on the right.

SUNDAY

A dry day with a minimal chance of showers. Just 15 degrees.

The low is being beaten back again. Previous on the left, latest on the right.

SUMMARY

Remember, this is all too early and we are over a week away from being able to draw any conclusions. Even this coming weekend is uncertain!

It's a far better run for the weekend before and the first few days of the festival, but the Saturday and Sunday are pretty crap.

We will have a very good idea what's going happen on this weekend by Wednesday.

 

IGNORE THESE LAST TWO THEY SHOULDN'T BE HERE AND THEY WON'T DELETE FFS!

 

 

Edited June 13, 2022 by briddj

[steviewevie]

50 minutes ago, Crumbleflaps said:

So basically nobody knows f all 

double negative...so everybody knows everything.

[steviewevie]

3 minutes ago, briddj said:

Does the 00Z put us back on track? Yes it does!

Always remember, the 18Z is less positive.

Let's take a look at the 00z then.

WEEKEND BEFORE - There is some rain around in the early hours of Sunday, but the bad stuff is missing to the west of the site. There will be some rain, but nothing to be concerned about from this at least.

WEDNESDAY - GATES OPEN

There is no rain at all through to 9am Wednesday, 18 for getting in and setting up.

High pressure is in a much better position going into the festival. Previous on the left, latest on the right.

WEDNESDAY

A dry day. max temps of 23.

THURSDAY

A dry day. max temps of 23.

 

A look at how the pressure has developed this time. That low is pushed above the UK but it remains a real danger as the runs will develop over the next few days. Previous on the left, latest on the right.

FRIDAY

A dry day. max temps of 20.

The threat of that low pressure is rearing its head for the weekend again. Previous on the left, latest on the right.

SATURDAY

Rain in the morning, and all through Saturday. Poor, with high temps of just 15.

We can now see that the 00Z has the low winning the fight and taking control of the UK on Saturday. Previous on the left, latest on the right.

SUNDAY

A dry day with a minimal chance of showers. Just 15 degrees.

The low is being beaten back again. Previous on the left, latest on the right.

SUMMARY

Remember, this is all too early and we are over a week away from being able to draw any conclusions. Even this coming weekend is uncertain!

It's a far better run for the weekend before and the first few days of the festival, but the Saturday and Sunday are pretty crap.

We will have a very good idea what's going happen on this weekend by Wednesday.

out of upvotes...good effort.

[fightoffyour]

There is no point in long range forecasts, it’s people’s demand for them that they even exist.

The forecasters do know plenty more than fuck all. The science is good. The problem is that weather systems or hugely chaotic, so there’s a butterfly effect from any small change. A slightly wrong assumption can, ahem, snowball.

This doesn’t correlate well with long range predictions - there are an infinite possibility of different outcomes and one with say a 20% probability has the strongest signal than any other, so because people want to see a picture in an app that means let’s have a sun behind a cloud in 10 days time. In that sense, it is nonsense yes. As the forecasts come into range, however, all of the different models will start to converge.

Edited June 13, 2022 by fightoffyour

[briddj]

2 minutes ago, fightoffyour said:

There is no point in long range forecasts, it’s people’s demand for them that they even exist.

In that sense, it is nonsense yes.

 

We know this. Now leave us to our madness.

Edited June 13, 2022 by briddj

[NorwayDave]

4 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

double negative...so everybody knows everything.

no, everybody knows at least something : )

what I do know, is that we don't know.

[steviewevie]

some squiggly lines

[steviewevie]

some more...

[fightoffyour]

1 minute ago, briddj said:

We know this. Now leave us to it.

Oh I didn’t mean it like that. Keep your posts coming! I was rather addressing the not knowing fuck all comments.

[steviewevie]

3 minutes ago, NorwayDave said:

no, everybody knows at least something : )

what I do know, is that we don't know.

yes, we don't know, but we can pretend we know.

[briddj]

Just now, fightoffyour said:

Oh I didn’t mean it like that. Keep your posts coming! I was rather addressing the not knowing fuck all comments.

Yeah, I didn't mean it like that either! I just added to "our madness".

[Skoo]

Can someone explain all this 12z 6z stuff? I nod knowingly when I read them referenced and even like to tell my husband “the 6z is looking good” but I have no idea. I’m going to get found out soon. 

[JayBalls]

1 minute ago, Skoo said:

Can someone explain all this 12z 6z stuff? I nod knowingly when I read them referenced and even like to tell my husband “the 6z is looking good” but I have no idea. I’m going to get found out soon. 

 

[gherkin8r]

20 minutes ago, JayBalls said:

Something to do innit

It's true. I don't know if I can do 4 new runs every day this week and into next. Or rather I know I SHOULDN'T but absolutely will.

[JayBalls]

5 minutes ago, gherkin8r said:

It's true. I don't know if I can do 4 new runs every day this week and into next. Or rather I know I SHOULDN'T but absolutely will.

I used to be worse in the lead up when I worked in an office but now I drive a lorry it stops me looking as much, neither safe or legal to look at screens whilst driving 😅

[Skoo]

Why thank you. I guess I could’ve googled it but where’s the fun in that. 

[JayBalls]

2 minutes ago, Skoo said:

Why thank you. I guess I could’ve googled it but where’s the fun in that. 

I didn't know myself so had to Google it haha

[squirrelarmy]

The weather is all going a bit @steviewevie 🤨

 

 

[steviewevie]

7 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

The weather is all going a bit @steviewevie 🤨

 

 

is this metcheck? Are their forecasts based on GFS?

Edited June 13, 2022 by steviewevie