The Weather Thread 2022

[steviewevie]

Apparently summer is starting early July this year.

[gazzared]

Weather channels 10 day but actually 15 day forecast, hopefully it'll change to the @squirrelarmy forecast 😭

[steviewevie]

Looked at the model thread on netweather forum and it's a bit of a horror show for week starting 20th...looks like Nal was right all along. I'll be purchasing some wellies this weekend.

[dmedxb]

Starting to get a bit nervous about these forecasts, tbh. Looking like a welly weekend... 

[JoeyT]

The one thing currently on our side is time.

Plenty of it for things to turn around…

[squirrelarmy]

It’s not just down to if it’s raining or not but the volume of rain.

Looks like there’s a bit of light rain on most days leading up to the festival. Only 1 of those days seem to have heavy or persistent rain. 

Good conditions for building in. Hard ground and sweltering temperatures isn’t good for those on the ground. 
 

As long as the sun comes out on the 22nd I’ll be happy. 

[steviewevie]

7 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

It’s not just down to if it’s raining or not but the volume of rain.

Looks like there’s a bit of light rain on most days leading up to the festival. Only 1 of those days seem to have heavy or persistent rain. 

Good conditions for building in. Hard ground and sweltering temperatures isn’t good for those on the ground. 
 

As long as the sun comes out on the 22nd I’ll be happy. 

yeah, the ground can actually dry out pretty quickly if doesn't get too bad.

Maybe I'll wait a few days before making that welly purchase decision.

[t0paz]

17 minutes ago, gazzared said:

Weather channels 10 day but actually 15 day forecast, hopefully it'll change to the @squirrelarmy forecast 😭

If they can’t count to 10 correctly then I doubt they can predict the weather correctly either.

[fightoffyour]

8 hours ago, dotdash79 said:

I’m not sure if people know where Pilton is on the map. 

Must be in Scotland

[AlexOvd]

48 minutes ago, gazzared said:

Weather channels 10 day but actually 15 day forecast, hopefully it'll change to the @squirrelarmy forecast 😭

If you have a look in other forecast the next 7 days get different predictions, imagine 15 days far. I don't know why people are on panic yet, as it really depends on the forecast you are looking at.

[gooner1990]

5 hours ago, Mark H said:

Does anyone recall what the conditions were like at this point leading into the 2011 festival?

I acknowledge this is a long shot.. but if anyone can recall what the weather was doing in early June 11 years ago, you lot can.

I’m interested because 2011 is the only muddy one I have been to and I want to consider conditions in the lead up against that one. 

Cheers 😀

 

[c8lin]

1 hour ago, squirrelarmy said:

Wet grass on arrival is looking likely. 
 

 

 

40 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

It’s not just down to if it’s raining or not but the volume of rain.

0.5mm of rain will dry in a day! Nothing to worry about at all! 

[Henrik]

It’s genuinely shocking how bad the current models are for the remainder of June. Absolutely no sign of any settled weather. This has got 2007 written all over it. Fortunately there is still time for change. 

[stopwn1981]

Didn’t even wear wellies in 2016. Good boots and gaiters all the way. Wellies are an abomination - especially those that say hunter on the front 

[gazzared]

12 minutes ago, AlexOvd said:

If you have a look in other forecast the next 7 days get different predictions, imagine 15 days far. I don't know why people are on panic yet, as it really depends on the forecast you are looking at.

It's just a bit of fun to pass the time 😊

[gigpusher]

1 hour ago, JoeyT said:

Another shocker in terms of the latest weather runs.

Those of you who are proud walking boot wearers might want to look in to investing in some wellies or decent gaiters…

I survived 2016 with walking boots, I think I will survive whatever else is thrown at me with walking boots. 

[gooner1990]

1 hour ago, JoeyT said:

Another shocker in terms of the latest weather runs.

Those of you who are proud walking boot wearers might want to look in to investing in some wellies or decent gaiters…

Load of rubbish.

I've survived every Glastonbury since 2004 in boots (when required!)

[Sheffield Steve]

 

Not uploaded a video here before so don’t know how it will work, but this shows the rain over the next 2 weeks from the latest GFS run, courtesy of Netweather. Fairly typical June weather with some rain and plenty of dry weather. Biggest concern is the big splodge of rain just before the festival but the start of the festival itself looks mostly dry. As ever, it’s too far ahead for much level of confidence. 

[moogster]

9 minutes ago, gigpusher said:

I survived 2016 with walking boots, I think I will survive whatever else is thrown at me with walking boots. 

 

I think we need a T-Shirt that says "I survived xxxx with walking boots" (and gaiters for me. Perfect combo)

Edited June 7, 2022 by moogster

[Ayrshire Chris]

48 minutes ago, fightoffyour said:

Must be in Scotland

Wish it was! 

[Glastov2]

Accuweather and MetCheck still seem fairly happy, so I am too.

Edited June 7, 2022 by Glastov2

[briddj]

1 hour ago, steviewevie said:

Looked at the model thread on netweather forum and it's a bit of a horror show for week starting 20th...looks like Nal was right all along. I'll be purchasing some wellies this weekend.

That's what they said in 2019, too.

[ErnestWorthing]

Showers in the run up, average to slightly above average temp for the week and fairly dry.

[Jay Pee]

Without going into all the details of my occupation, we have a dedicated Met Office person who does all our short, medium and long range forecasting.

He summarises Summer Showers / thunderstorms as akin to putting a pan of water on the stove to boil and then asking someone to point to where the bubbles will appear.

It's not possible to be precise until it's happening. It's the situation that sees 60mm of rain in 2 hours in Castle Cary and nothing in Pilton. It's why intense summer rainfall predictions cover huge swathes of the county rather than the firmer predictions we see from regular winter Atlantic Lows.

Just keep a positive mindset and plan for the worst but hope for the best.

Whatever we get, it will be kin amazing.

[Mark H]

43 minutes ago, gooner1990 said:

 

Great detective work thanks. Looks like it was bloody cold and wet? From what I can tell from abroad, the temps have been quite warm in the UK lately? So probably not such a waterlogged site 👍🤞