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When will covid end ? Please be nice and respectful to others


crazyfool1
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10 minutes ago, Justiceforcedave said:

You can block people?! This is a revelation!

Yeah its quite popular here with people who only enjoy their own or similar opinions.  Seems a bazar thing to do to me on a discussion forum but it seems to make people happy.  Go for it 😄 

Edited by Barry Fish
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16 minutes ago, onthebeach said:

Sorry to say I gave up posting on this thread some time ago. It originally started (and the previous incarnation) as a go to for news/information with a healthy, respectful debate for the majority of time

lol - the old thread was none of this 🙂

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16 hours ago, lost said:

Dude I've never mentioned Pagel but I'll chip in with a polite comment. Yesterday you called people who had been to medical school idiots, today people who think lockdowns are ineffective are certifiable. If you didn't approach the thread with a debating technique of just saying anyone who disagrees with me on anything is stupid you might get a bit less stick.

I think I generally do approach the debate in an open way and listen to what people have to say. But yeah I think people who believe that "lockdowns had no benefit" or "the vaccine isn't worth having" are stupid. That's kind of my red line. It's gone increasingly weird in here as it's become more of an echo chamber but I've mostly engaged, but those beliefs are on part with "the vaccine is full of nanobots Bill Gates uses to control you". There's swathes and swathes of test data on the benefits of the vaccine, and the risks (virtually nil). Unless you had COVID less than 3 months ago there's no sensible reason to not get it, regardless of if you had a medical degree.

And on lockdowns, trying to use the fact that "well we didn't lockdown now and it's been fine" when we're facing a milder variant against an almost fully vaccinated population, to suggest that locking down in March 2020 was a mistake... when y'know, there's the evidence of the countries that locked-down later having more deaths out there... or the fact that every time we did a lockdown, the deaths went down loads. A coincidence, apparently, the full three times it happened.

I'm fine arguing with Barry over whether the post-vaccine restrictions are sensible or not, I was fine discussing at the time what lockdown measures would work best, where the attention should be, the best way to open up safely, that was all interesting. I have quite strong views on a lot of those things, but I can follow the logic of those that don't share them and it's often informative discussion. 

15 hours ago, Barry Fish said:

My view pre vaccine was very different post vaccine.  I think that is lost on Dean a little because all people remember is recent history 

Once we got the vaccine it became clear pagel was more potlical than science.

You've always been interesting to discuss with because you do and have often changed your mind, you're much less stuck on one side or the other than most of the posters here. But when you do change your mind you are so convinced you're right this time around, and for some technical reason you were never wrong before. And you're quite forceful in putting that across. I can see why people get wound up with you. I get wound up with you. But looking past that there's almost always some sort of valid point in the snark. 

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14 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

lol - the old thread was none of this 🙂

Nah it pretty much was until the times around the various reopenings. But there was a huge portion where pretty much everyone posted was on the same "side" - that restrictions were needed, and it was just discussing the best way, how the government were cocking up, how Indie SAGE were right - things only diverged when the whole "back to normal" thing started.

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9 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

You've always been interesting to discuss with because you do and have often changed your mind, you're much less stuck on one side or the other than most of the posters here. But when you do change your mind you are so convinced you're right this time around, and for some technical reason you were never wrong before. And you're quite forceful in putting that across. I can see why people get wound up with you. I get wound up with you. But looking past that there's almost always some sort of valid point in the snark. 

Having a different view point pre and post vaccines is not changing your mind though.  Its developing your view point as the facts change.

I have had a pretty static view point throughout the whole pandemic and its not really changed. 

Not sure if there was ever a moment I think I have been proved wrong or changed my mind...

Even the CDC agree with me on masks now and are recommending N95 or better.  Was always sick how we told people to wear a cloth mask to protect themselves and others.  People still wearing them today thinking it "protects them".

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6 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

Nah it pretty much was until the times around the various reopenings. But there was a huge portion where pretty much everyone posted was on the same "side" - that restrictions were needed, and it was just discussing the best way, how the government were cocking up, how Indie SAGE were right - things only diverged when the vaccine became a reality  (early 2021 is when I started going against restrictions because of the vaccine)

Fixed for you

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17 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

 but I've mostly engaged, but those beliefs are on part with "the vaccine is full of nanobots Bill Gates uses to control you".

Really? as far as I'm aware there is no data on nanoboats in the vaccine. There is however lots of data on restrictions as different countries have done different things.

Take last year when as far I'm aware we had the strictest lockdown in the developed world in this country with regards to household mixing from winter into spring. As far as I can see its made no difference to excess death. We did average not the best with regards to excess mortality. Here we can see Sweden did the best and the eastern European countries did the worse probably due to a suspicion of state vaccine mandates after living under socialism.

FIsav-Nv-VIAE-Fs-H.jpg

 

Quote

There's swathes and swathes of test data on the benefits of the vaccine

Of course but there is also data on natural immunity and the types of anti-bodies your body produces upon seeing the whole of the virus vs just the spike protein. The risk of myocarditis maybe low but I guess these people are weighing that up against them thinking the vaccine has no benefit if their natural anti-bodies are still quite high. They maybe wrong but I wouldn't call them stupid. They are simply making a risk vs reward judgment.

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I’m not quite why it’s so out there to believe that the Alpha wave could have gone exactly the same as the Omicron wave and didn’t need such a strict lockdown that lasted for far longer than it needed to. 
 

Obviously Deano is right, he’s been on the ball throughout the entire pandemic 😆😆

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4 minutes ago, BobWillis2 said:

I’m not quite why it’s so out there to believe that the Alpha wave could have gone exactly the same as the Omicron wave and didn’t need such a strict lockdown that lasted for far longer than it needed to. 
 

Obviously Deano is right, he’s been on the ball throughout the entire pandemic 😆😆

It seems to be lost on him how the virus is transmitted did not change when the new variant came along.  So none medical interventions are going to have exactly the same impact on case numbers as they did in previous waves. 

I don't get also how people can't stand back and look at how various nations have done with the whole array of different none medical based interventions and not come to the conclusion they made no real terms difference.  You can see the exact same patterns and waves in all countries with the small exception of New Zealand who had an advantage.

We had a perfect example when Wales and Scotland did things differently and if anything had worse outcomes.

Yet he still can't see how previous lockdowns and restrictions probably made no overall difference to the end result.


Its pretty much accepted now that Wave 1 had peaked before lockdown 1 happened and one thing I am sure we all now accept is that if you want to have ANY impact then you have to lockdown early.

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11 minutes ago, BobWillis2 said:

Obviously Deano is right, he’s been on the ball throughout the entire pandemic 😆😆

His latest one is we are all going to become Japanese and wear masks forever...  Lets review this in August 🙂 

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2 hours ago, Barry Fish said:

You have said this sort of thing before and been proven right but I think the major difference now is - we have seen out this wave largely thanks to the original two doses of the vaccine.  The booster has - as far as I can tell - been something of a none event.

We now know that boosting only gives a very short term boost (3 months) to the anti bodies.  But we have all retained T-Cell protection etc again serious illness.  

So when the next variant comes along we should have more confidence to ignore if case numbers going up with the hope that hospitals can cope.  

That is my hope anyway.

My hope too of course - just I think its a cautious optimism for now. This winter has proved it can be dealt with without any measures in place apart from maybe work from home as that does keep people away from close contact with others for definite (as I know we all have different opinions on how well plan B stops spread - I'm almost 100% certain the passports did nothing at the very least). But there have been a lot of variants so far. 

Treating it like flu will be hard for a lot of people, as that means letting a lot of older people die "preventable" deaths just like every winter before - so while its not new, we are now more acutely aware of it. So definitely setting up a debate about how that can be dealt with, but I'm not sure how realistic it is to make the results of that debate shutting down the country every year for a bit. 

The biggest change in thinking that needs to happen is to stop supporting the government in allowing them to blame the state of the health service on people being irresponsible enough to catch covid. They need to fix it, and increase capacity over time as they were in a mess every winter before now and no amount of masks or vaccines will fix that. 

Edited by efcfanwirral
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36 minutes ago, BobWillis2 said:

I’m not quite why it’s so out there to believe that the Alpha wave could have gone exactly the same as the Omicron wave and didn’t need such a strict lockdown that lasted for far longer than it needed to. 
 

Obviously Deano is right, he’s been on the ball throughout the entire pandemic 😆😆

 

24 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

His latest one is we are all going to become Japanese and wear masks forever...  Lets review this in August 🙂 

Come on "play the ball not the man" to use a football analogy - the debates are good without that stuff 

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31 minutes ago, onthebeach said:

Sorry to say I gave up posting on this thread some time ago. It originally started (and the previous incarnation) as a go to for news/information with a healthy, respectful debate for the majority of time.

I only keep checking now in the hope of a post from @Toilet Duckwho I really miss for their expert and balanced point of view. Would love to know what their thoughts are on how it’s progressed so far and views on the future.

Howdy! I am actually still around, though a bit swamped, so less time for hanging out. Hopefully that will improve! I did post a while back when someone asked my opinion on the emergence of omicron (at the time it hadn't been named!). I think that may have been lost though when the forums went awol! 

Long and short, I'm not overly worried, the tools we already have remain the ones we need to deal with this and future variants (high vaccine coverage and the new therapeutics...Paxlovid in particular (which wasn't approved yet when I last posted either!)). To me it looks like most likely future is variant-specific vaccines for high risk individuals (annually probably), good testing infrastructure to accurately diagnose high risk individuals that present to their GP/A&E with respiratory symptoms (to determine if it is indeed SARS-CoV-2 infection) followed by treatment with Paxlovid (or other emerging treatment options). The combination of vaccination and treatment should further reduce the number that end up progressing to severe disease and require hospitalisation (with the knock-on impact on ICU numbers and mortality). That would appear to be the most likely scenario (though this pandemic has been full of surprises! and Paxlovid isn't that nice a combo, so exploring how it works in patients that are heavily medicated for other things still needs to be ironed out). For the rest of us, existing vaccination levels should be enough to stop the vast majority from developing severe disease that will require hospitalisation (underlying cellular immunity is robust). The current wave really has been a massive test of how well the vaccines work and by and large, they do what we hoped they would (keep people out of hospital and ICU). It's likely that we'll all catch it at some point, possibly repeatedly, but our existing immunity will limit the infection (and we've had a pretty extensive test of this over the last month). The addition of naturally acquired immunity on top of vaccine acquired immunity should be a good thing and will broaden out the ability of our immune systems to deal with variants that haven't even emerged yet (our immune cells actually evolve too and generate cells that predict future variants....rather amazing!).

So, in some parts of the world, the virus is more or less endemic , will remain a periodic threat and will still cause severe infections, hospitalisation and unfortunately death in vulnerable individuals (though there are a range of infectious diseases that now pose a similar risk). Hopefully vaccination and the aforementioned treatments mitigate that sufficiently. Other parts of the world remain in the pandemic phase and still need to either vaccinate their populations or many will acquire immunity via infection (with a higher cost in terms of morbidity and mortality in immune naive populations). I wouldn't rule out guidance to wear masks in high density indoor environments from time to time in the future, though I think we are pretty much past the time when that needs to be mandated (I don't make policy though and there is complex balancing required to manage outbreaks, so can't predict how those that do make these decisions will go). How successful that guidance might be is debatable though! (I flew from LHR to Doha in October when masks were not mandatory in the UK and nobody on board wore masks, even though the airline required it (when I got off, my colleagues informed me that I was the only one to leave my mask on for the entire flight!)...flew from Dublin to Doha a few weeks after and everyone wore masks as they were still required in Ireland at the time, so compliance seems good when mandatory and poor when only guidance). Personally, I avail of home testing for a few days before I meet anyone that might be considered higher risk (I also have the luxury of peace of mind PCR testing in work, which I avail of too (especially when I return from overseas travel), but we will be shutting down our testing facility in the near future), and I still modify my behaviour if I know I'm going to see someone who may not have the same ability as me to fight off an infection (even if they are fully vaccinated and boosted). Though we behave normally when we do meet, I just take precautions in the run up to meeting them. I can see myself doing that in the future if there are large outbreaks (and normal surveillance of this as a notifiable disease should alert us to outbreaks). I also can see vaccine passes and tests remaining for international travel for some time yet (we are still taking our feckin' boots off at security, so changes may be glacial at airports!), though I have travelled a lot since last October and it's not that arduous for travel to some places (currently lost in a rabbit hole of apps and approvals to get into Kuwait next week!...going to the UK, US or Europe is a doddle though). I think their use outside of travel is limited though at this stage and probably no longer required. So, we have made massive progress and I'm optimistic about the future (though I'm naturally optimistic anyway, so not sure how reassuring that is!). 

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48 minutes ago, lost said:

Really? as far as I'm aware there is no data on nanoboats in the vaccine. There is however lots of data on restrictions as different countries have done different things.

Take last year when as far I'm aware we had the strictest lockdown in the developed world in this country with regards to household mixing from winter into spring. As far as I can see its made no difference to excess death. We did average not the best with regards to excess mortality. Here we can see Sweden did the best and the eastern European countries did the worse probably due to a suspicion of state vaccine mandates after living under socialism.

Like I say, happy to discuss the benefit of Lockdowns in a post-vaccine world, I think that's complicated, and as the vaccine rollout continued the cost/benefit of lockdown is arguable. I argued on one side of it and I still believe that, but I see the other point of view.

I don't see the point of view that lockdown in March 2020 was ineffective.

34 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

It seems to be lost on him how the virus is transmitted did not change when the new variant came along.  

Because the vaccine effects transmission. It reduces it. There's both data pointing at that *and* common sense: the vaccine clearly reduces symptoms, the more symptomatic you are, the more infectious you are. It's not *as* effective against the new variant, sure, but it still works. 

Quote

Its pretty much accepted now that Wave 1 had peaked before lockdown 1 happened

*citation needed 😄

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15 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

Howdy! I am actually still around, though a bit swamped, so less time for hanging out. Hopefully that will improve! I did post a while back when someone asked my opinion on the emergence of omicron (at the time it hadn't been named!). I think that may have been lost though when the forums went awol! 

Long and short, I'm not overly worried, the tools we already have remain the ones we need to deal with this and future variants (high vaccine coverage and the new therapeutics...Paxlovid in particular (which wasn't approved yet when I last posted either!)). To me it looks like most likely future is variant-specific vaccines for high risk individuals (annually probably), good testing infrastructure to accurately diagnose high risk individuals that present to their GP/A&E with respiratory symptoms (to determine if it is indeed SARS-CoV-2 infection) followed by treatment with Paxlovid (or other emerging treatment options). The combination of vaccination and treatment should further reduce the number that end up progressing to severe disease and require hospitalisation (with the knock-on impact on ICU numbers and mortality). That would appear to be the most likely scenario (though this pandemic has been full of surprises! and Paxlovid isn't that nice a combo, so exploring how it works in patients that are heavily medicated for other things still needs to be ironed out). For the rest of us, existing vaccination levels should be enough to stop the vast majority from developing severe disease that will require hospitalisation (underlying cellular immunity is robust). The current wave really has been a massive test of how well the vaccines work and by and large, they do what we hoped they would (keep people out of hospital and ICU). It's likely that we'll all catch it at some point, possibly repeatedly, but our existing immunity will limit the infection (and we've had a pretty extensive test of this over the last month). The addition of naturally acquired immunity on top of vaccine acquired immunity should be a good thing and will broaden out the ability of our immune systems to deal with variants that haven't even emerged yet (our immune cells actually evolve too and generate cells that predict future variants....rather amazing!).

So, in some parts of the world, the virus is more or less endemic , will remain a periodic threat and will still cause severe infections, hospitalisation and unfortunately death in vulnerable individuals (though there are a range of infectious diseases that now pose a similar risk). Hopefully vaccination and the aforementioned treatments mitigate that sufficiently. Other parts of the world remain in the pandemic phase and still need to either vaccinate their populations or many will acquire immunity via infection (with a higher cost in terms of morbidity and mortality in immune naive populations). I wouldn't rule out guidance to wear masks in high density indoor environments from time to time in the future, though I think we are pretty much past the time when that needs to be mandated (I don't make policy though and there is complex balancing required to manage outbreaks, so can't predict how those that do make these decisions will go). How successful that guidance might be is debatable though! (I flew from LHR to Doha in October when masks were not mandatory in the UK and nobody on board wore masks, even though the airline required it (when I got off, my colleagues informed me that I was the only one to leave my mask on for the entire flight!)...flew from Dublin to Doha a few weeks after and everyone wore masks as they were still required in Ireland at the time, so compliance seems good when mandatory and poor when only guidance). Personally, I avail of home testing for a few days before I meet anyone that might be considered higher risk (I also have the luxury of peace of mind PCR testing in work, which I avail of too (especially when I return from overseas travel), but we will be shutting down our testing facility in the near future), and I still modify my behaviour if I know I'm going to see someone who may not have the same ability as me to fight off an infection (even if they are fully vaccinated and boosted). Though we behave normally when we do meet, I just take precautions in the run up to meeting them. I can see myself doing that in the future if there are large outbreaks (and normal surveillance of this as a notifiable disease should alert us to outbreaks). I also can see vaccine passes and tests remaining for international travel for some time yet (we are still taking our feckin' boots off at security, so changes may be glacial at airports!), though I have travelled a lot since last October and it's not that arduous for travel to some places (currently lost in a rabbit hole of apps and approvals to get into Kuwait next week!...going to the UK, US or Europe is a doddle though). I think their use outside of travel is limited though at this stage and probably no longer required. So, we have made massive progress and I'm optimistic about the future (though I'm naturally optimistic anyway, so not sure how reassuring that is!). 

Thank you - really do appreciate that you took time out of your busy schedule to post this. So good to read such a balanced and positive view

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11 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

Can we review in November, actual COVID/flu season y'know... 

Sure let's...  

I mean you don't have to wait really...  hardly anyone was still wearing masks before plan b came back.  

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47 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

Sure let's...  

I mean you don't have to wait really...  hardly anyone was still wearing masks before plan b came back.  

I think you're over-estimating how many people and in what conditions people in Japan wear masks in normal times to be honest. 

I'm not saying everyone will be masked up all the time, just we've been sold masks have health benefits and stop transmission of disease for well over a year now, that's not going entirely back in box. It won't be everyone, it won't be all the time, but you will see masked people around both next month and next winter for sure.

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34 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

I think you're over-estimating how many people and in what conditions people in Japan wear masks in normal times to be honest. 

I'm not saying everyone will be masked up all the time, just we've been sold masks have health benefits and stop transmission of disease for well over a year now, that's not going entirely back in box. It won't be everyone, it won't be all the time, but you will see masked people around both next month and next winter for sure.

Oh yeah for sure - but nowhere near the level you see in Japan...  

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