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When will covid end ? Please be nice and respectful to others


crazyfool1
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12 minutes ago, zahidf said:

 

thats very sad but still andectotal

I only have anecdotal - I'm part of my local community support fro Long Covid sufferers - none of them say they feel any better for having had the jabs. As I said at the beginning of today- we are yet to have anyone who has gotten Long Covid for the first time having caught Covid for the first time after they've had both jabs. But I'm only aware of people getting Covid having had both jabs in the last few weeks so I think  it's too early to set the fireworks off just yet.

Edited by 5co77ie
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On 8/21/2021 at 9:13 AM, eFestivals said:

anyone suffering from long covid?

Might be worth asking your doc if you coul have pregabolin. I know its been prescribed to some people with long covid, and has been useful in reducing symptoms.

that's probably more useful than a second jab (for Long Covid).

Edited by 5co77ie
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14 minutes ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

That is really shit 😞 

Tell me about, my wife works with someone who had Covid in 2020, went to Boardmasters (in a working capacity) and now has it again  - she's not well but at home, and is also double jabbed.

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38 minutes ago, 5co77ie said:

Losing you sense of smell or taste (for example and counts as long covid)...  for 12 weeks or more...  doesn't keep people off work..

The term long covid is a massive catch all term.  Its basically keeping one or more symptom for more than 12 weeks.  Doesnt mean people are sat there in a wheelchair.   
 

There are a few people who have been hit hard by the virus...  Then we have a few more who are lazy workshy types making the most of it... and then there is everyone else...

10 million off work is frankly a ridiculous suggestion.... 

Edited by Barry Fish
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1 hour ago, 5co77ie said:

As I say I know of at least 20 friends with Long Covid - a handful of which have been told they will have it for life  - that's at home unable to do sod all for the rest of their days, I'm sure they can see no endpoint at present.

Heya - genuine question as I'm interested and you seem to be the most informed on long COVID on here - how have medical staff been able to tell people they'll have it for life? My understanding was we don't entirely understand what it is right now, and new treatments are cropping up regularly? Unless it's trigged some underlying condition? Just struck me as odd.

It's a difficult situation at the moment - just saw the Get Cape Wear Cape Fly tour due next month has been postponed as they can't get insurance for it. And shows that would normally sell fast don't seem to be selling as fast - though there could be multiple reasons for that (not least for us, it seems like every show we had booked in 2020 has been moved to September this year!)

The weird thing is, I spent most of the first half of the year arguing with the "if not now, when?" crowd by saying "once all adults are double vaxxed." It seemed obvious to me - we make ourselves as safe as possible then open up. It made absolute sense to wait until that point.

And that's roundabout the point we are at right now. And my view hasn't changed, which means I am now one of the "if not now, when?" crowd myself! We've done all we can, long COVID may just be something we have to deal with as a society. I don't see any other route out of it other than indefinite lockdown. We can talk all we want about distanced events and continued mask wearing, but in the period of time where we were doing that *cases were still going up*. At a slower rate, for sure, but if that's your "new normal" then they're going to continue going up (because exponential growth) and they're going to peak at the same point - it's just that peak will be at a later point in time. Which is useful if your concern is hospitals being overrun, but not if your concern is overall infection (and therefore long COVID) numbers. They'll be the same.

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33 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

Losing you sense of smell or taste (for example and counts as long covid)...  for 12 weeks or more...  doesn't keep people off work..

If [your favourite band] end up headlining the Pyramid next year it's Michael Eavis got long COVID and temporarily lost all sense of taste.

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55 minutes ago, 5co77ie said:

I only have anecdotal - I'm part of my local community support fro Long Covid sufferers - none of them say they feel any better for having had the jabs. As I said at the beginning of today- we are yet to have anyone who has gotten Long Covid for the first time having caught Covid for the first time after they've had both jabs. But I'm only aware of people getting Covid having had both jabs in the last few weeks so I think  it's too early to set the fireworks off just yet.

True, but this sounds like something we have to manage rather that we have to prevent people catching. With vaccines, the numbers are low enough so social distancing restrictions should not be countenanced. 

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9 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

Heya - genuine question as I'm interested and you seem to be the most informed on long COVID on here - how have medical staff been able to tell people they'll have it for life? My understanding was we don't entirely understand what it is right now, and new treatments are cropping up regularly? Unless it's trigged some underlying condition? Just struck me as odd.

It's a difficult situation at the moment - just saw the Get Cape Wear Cape Fly tour due next month has been postponed as they can't get insurance for it. And shows that would normally sell fast don't seem to be selling as fast - though there could be multiple reasons for that (not least for us, it seems like every show we had booked in 2020 has been moved to September this year!)

The weird thing is, I spent most of the first half of the year arguing with the "if not now, when?" crowd by saying "once all adults are double vaxxed." It seemed obvious to me - we make ourselves as safe as possible then open up. It made absolute sense to wait until that point.

And that's roundabout the point we are at right now. And my view hasn't changed, which means I am now one of the "if not now, when?" crowd myself! We've done all we can, long COVID may just be something we have to deal with as a society. I don't see any other route out of it other than indefinite lockdown. We can talk all we want about distanced events and continued mask wearing, but in the period of time where we were doing that *cases were still going up*. At a slower rate, for sure, but if that's your "new normal" then they're going to continue going up (because exponential growth) and they're going to peak at the same point - it's just that peak will be at a later point in time. Which is useful if your concern is hospitals being overrun, but not if your concern is overall infection (and therefore long COVID) numbers. They'll be the same.

Yeah, thats my general view as well. Circuit breaker lockdowns don't work, we pretty much have as much vaccine coverage as we are going to have ( unless we want to wait to vax kids, but thats another minefield) and the NHS isnt looking like its going to be overwhelmed.

Any restrictions proposed now are basically going to be permanent ones. And id rather have the societal risks of Covid than social distancing as  permanent thing

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1 hour ago, DeanoL said:

Heya - genuine question as I'm interested and you seem to be the most informed on long COVID on here - how have medical staff been able to tell people they'll have it for life? My understanding was we don't entirely understand what it is right now, and new treatments are cropping up regularly? Unless it's trigged some underlying condition? Just struck me as odd.

 

strikes me as odd too - I've no idea how clinicians come to these outcomes, and my role (to some extent) is to help those who are told that to be able to deal with it - and recommend pathways - be it practitioners, therapists, treatments and wellbeing options to help them cope going forward and process where they are with it now. 

All i know is it's based on the state of the person's nervous and immune system. The archer I was talking about earlier hasn't been able to recharge his batteries or escape constant fatigue - and they've come to that decision based on how knackered he is. Obviously he's in CBT Therapy and the like so he's getting help and drugs to manage the condition - but there's no sign of him not having to live with it - that's not to say treatment won't make him more able to cope. I believe in readiness for next year the Government have chucked hundreds of millions of pounds at Chronic fatigue syndrome (and by extension ME) in an attempt to R&D better drugs to cope with it.

 

My worry is no one of us, has a scooby how many people could get Long Covid, how badly, or what long term effects we could have to endure. I've not been on eFestivals much despite being back working behind the scenes - because I'm cascadent at how irresponsible it is for Boris and Co. to put the economy over the general population, over something we literally have no data on yet. I know in South Devon last year the number needing Long Covid support could be counted on one hand now we have over 300 to help, including teenagers, and that's just those accepting of their condition - I'm firmly of the opinion there's hundreds more that are just feeling a "bit tired all the time" and not getting help. 

NERVTAG data on genomic analysis back in January showed that the relative prevalence odds of the Delta variant doubled every 6.4 days, was 70% more infectious, and had a 'higher chance of developing Long Covid' - yet the warnings were not passed on to the public. For comparison of that 900,000+ currently in the UK with Long Covid the nearest similar condition is Myalgic encephalomyelitis (ME) or chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS) - which is where pre-Covid many of our recommendations for practitioners were from. Total numbers of ME-CFS patients in the UK in 2019? Well it was around 250,000 in the UK, and around 17 million people worldwide, Long-Covid already is far above that.

It is highly likely that young schoolchildren are not very likely to become seriously ill, but we have no idea what potential there is for children’s immune systems to suffer Long Covid, they do get ME  - that is not something I’d like to consider our government believe is worth taking the risk, but they are day after day (asking most parents if they think 1 in 50 is acceptable odds for their child? - https://www.nursinginpractice.com/clinical/respiratory/long-covid-uncommon-in-children/). Which is why children vaccinations will be on the way - despite warning articles like this: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/16/briefing/long-covid-afghanistan-haiti.html Which is where I get my 1/3 of cases figure from.

"While most people recover from mild to moderate Covid-19 in a few weeks, long Covid is a perplexing set of symptoms — brain fog, fatigue and muscle pain, to name a few — that can persist for weeks or months after the active infection has ended. And it doesn’t happen only to people who had serious illness; sometimes long Covid affects people who had mild illness or no symptoms at all. And while many viruses, like influenza, also can lead to long-term fatigue and other symptoms, long Covid appears to be more common, although more data is needed. Several studies suggest that 10 percent to 30 percent of adults who catch the virus may experience long Covid."

Both the recent CDC (USA) and Zoe (Oxford) studies put big question marks on how well vaccines 'prevent' Long Covid - but as i keep saying right now - no one has been double jabbed, then got Covid, then had months to develop Long Covid - most people are only 2-3 months into their second jabs.

Edited by 5co77ie
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51 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

ooo get me I live in a hot-spot the BBC recommends you think twice before visiting me. Doesn't say I should think twice before attending a festival.

 

EDIT: Actually I shouldn't be so dismissive this contains :

"The "good news", Prof Adam Finn, of the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI), says, is the vaccines, having effectively taken the edge off the virus by giving our immune system a head start, are still working very well."

But as I say "taking the edge off" is not a full on cure - and for Melvin to be calling the Pandemic over is to seriously misjudge where we are, we are not there yet.

Edited by 5co77ie
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1 hour ago, zahidf said:

( unless we want to wait to vax kids, but thats another minefield) and the NHS isnt looking like its going to be overwhelmed.

 

Interesting that the Torygraph floated this balloon today then:

"BRITAIN’S Health Department said it has not made any decision on Covid-19 vaccines for 12 to 15 year olds after the Telegraph reported the National Health Service (NHS) planned vaccinations from the first week children return to school in September."

https://www.easterneye.biz/uk-says-no-decision-yet-on-covid-19-vaccine-for-12-to-15-year-olds/

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3 hours ago, Barry Fish said:

Losing you sense of smell or taste (for example and counts as long covid)...  for 12 weeks or more...  doesn't keep people off work..

 

no it doesn't - long-covid is a fatigue syndrome similar to ME - not losing your sense of smell.

 

It has two main groups of symptoms

1. mainly respiratory - ie difficulty in breathing particularly while moving.

2. affecting organs of the body - particularly including the heart, brain and the gut.

Causing: fatigue, disorientation, headache, heart palpitations or increased heartbeat, and pins and needles, numbness and ‘brain fog’, and loss of cognitive process.

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1 hour ago, 5co77ie said:

But as I say "taking the edge off" is not a full on cure - and for Melvin to be calling the Pandemic over is to seriously misjudge where we are, we are not there yet.

I'm honestly not sure there will ever be a full on cure. As was said above, the measures we choose to implement now could well be permanent. Or at least for every winter, which is where my thinking is going (as always, what i think will happen, not what I think should happen).

I think it'd take colossal balls from the government not to panic and ride out this entire winter

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1 minute ago, efcfanwirral said:

I'm honestly not sure there will ever be a full on cure. As was said above, the measures we choose to implement now could well be permanent. Or at least for every winter, which is where my thinking is going (as always, what i think will happen, not what I think should happen).

I think it'd take colossal balls from the government not to panic and ride out this entire winter

I am firmly of the opinion that with the "edge taken off", with 200 Long-Covid Clinics planned (currently around 70 open) with £18.5 million already allocated for Long Covid research and £40 million earmarked for therapy development, a new booster and flu jab proposal, although it has been moved from September to a slated start in December (except for cohorts 1-4) mybe for 12+ vaccines to be administered first, and a public wary in the main and observing social distancing measures (this industry aside), my guess is the expected and much rumoured in NHS circles September 'circuit breaker' won't happen and BoJo will try and ride it out for as long as he can - I expect the "herd immunity" narrative to be replaced with 'individual immunity" and restrictions to be as minimal as possible, Boris would rather the "bodies in the streets" than put personal freedoms on the line again. If he wants to stay Tory leader he won't be ushering in any more lockdowns.

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8 minutes ago, 5co77ie said:

I am firmly of the opinion that with the "edge taken off", with 200 Long-Covid Clinics planned (currently around 70 open) with £18.5 million already allocated for Long Covid research and £40 million earmarked for therapy development, a new booster and flu jab proposal, although it has been moved from September to a slated start in December (except for cohorts 1-4) mybe for 12+ vaccines to be administered first, and a public wary in the main and observing social distancing measures (this industry aside), my guess is the expected and much rumoured in NHS circles September 'circuit breaker' won't happen and BoJo will try and ride it out for as long as he can - I expect the "herd immunity" narrative to be replaced with 'individual immunity" and restrictions to be as minimal as possible, Boris would rather the "bodies in the streets" than put personal freedoms on the line again. If he wants to stay Tory leader he won't be ushering in any more lockdowns.

And he'd be right to not lockdown again as it stands. We aren't in a 'body's in the street' type situation as it stands. It would be our precious personal freedoms vs a nasty but manageable disease.

 

As seen in Wales, a 2 week circuit breaker would do sod all.

Any lockdowns now won't be  for a specific purpose. We have the vaccine, so just get boosters if needed and crack on really.

Edited by zahidf
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20 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

I'm honestly not sure there will ever be a full on cure. As was said above, the measures we choose to implement now could well be permanent. Or at least for every winter, which is where my thinking is going (as always, what i think will happen, not what I think should happen).

I think it'd take colossal balls from the government not to panic and ride out this entire winter

They'll implement a vaccine passport for gigs first and encourage social distancing. Unless furlough gets extended again they won't order anything closed thankfully.

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15 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

I'm honestly not sure there will ever be a full on cure. As was said above, the measures we choose to implement now could well be permanent. Or at least for every winter, which is where my thinking is going (as always, what i think will happen, not what I think should happen).

I think the guy in charge of Iceland's response recently said 10 to 15 years was a possibility. Apparently Spanish flu took a decade to mutate into something as deadly as normal flu. I haven't a clue though if corona viruses change at the same rate as influenzas' plus if the lab leak hypothesis turns out to be correct I would think all bets are off as we've then nothing to compare this to.

There is the argument that at some point the economic cost will become too great. We've already thrown £400bn at this, our debt has already exceeded our GDP and you can only see interest rates on that debt rising from here. If you look at Thailand though where my mate currently is, average salaries in Phuket were £1000 a month when this started. They have recently touched £50 (I haven't missed a zero there) Most of the tourist areas resemble refugee camps with make shift dwellings and queues for food handouts and yet the government still sees the alternative of opening up as worse.

 

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4 minutes ago, lost said:

 If you look at Thailand though where my mate currently is, average salaries in Phuket were £1000 a month when this started. They have recently touched £50 (I haven't missed a zero there) Most of the tourist areas resemble refugee camps with make shift dwellings and queues for food handouts and yet the government still sees the alternative of opening up as worse.

 

As someone who grew up in Asia Pacific I have to say they're sensible to wait until they know what they're dealing with there's some nasty tropical diseases they've come up against in the past.

 

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46 minutes ago, 5co77ie said:

Causing: fatigue, disorientation, headache, heart palpitations or increased heartbeat, and pins and needles, numbness and ‘brain fog’, and loss of cognitive process.

I’ve had a lot of these over the last year or so in the time since I presumed to have had Covid.
 

The trouble is that I’ve had a lot of other stuff going on that has the same symptoms so no idea if it’s long Covid or not.

I’m wondering if they can develop a test for it that can check for a trace of the virus in the system. Would probably have to be a GP prescribed blood test though

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2 hours ago, 5co77ie said:

no it doesn't - long-covid is a fatigue syndrome similar to ME - not losing your sense of smell.

 

It has two main groups of symptoms

1. mainly respiratory - ie difficulty in breathing particularly while moving.

2. affecting organs of the body - particularly including the heart, brain and the gut.

Causing: fatigue, disorientation, headache, heart palpitations or increased heartbeat, and pins and needles, numbness and ‘brain fog’, and loss of cognitive process.

WRONG

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/long-term-effects-of-coronavirus-long-covid/

 

Symptoms of long COVID

There are lots of symptoms you can have after a COVID-19 infection.

Common long COVID symptoms include:

  • extreme tiredness (fatigue)
  • shortness of breath
  • chest pain or tightness
  • problems with memory and concentration ("brain fog")
  • difficulty sleeping (insomnia)
  • heart palpitations
  • dizziness
  • pins and needles
  • joint pain
  • depression and anxiety
  • tinnitus, earaches
  • feeling sick, diarrhoea, stomach aches, loss of appetite
  • a high temperature, cough, headaches, sore throat, changes to sense of smell or taste
  • rashes

 

You are painting pictures that do not exist.  Why ?   I don't get it...  Are you simply misinformed or just another anti government bod ? 

Either way its unhelpful to paint pictures that do not exist.

Edited by Barry Fish
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5 hours ago, DeanoL said:

 you seem to be the most informed on long COVID on here 

He is not

He thinks when long covid is referring to people that have the most severe symptoms when in reality its a catch all term for any covid symptom that persists after infection - 12 weeks is usually the point they deem it "long" and the vast vast majority of people don't have symptoms beyond 6 months and that most people don't have anything other than a loss of smell and taste for example.   A small handful do have worse symptoms.  Not the claimed 10 million for sure.

Its being misused by many organisations like Indy Sage and anti government types to try and make out we are going have millions suffering from some pretty nasty stuff post covid.  And its simply scaremongering lies backed up with no facts or indeed evidence. 

I am getting quite annoyed to see people doing this being held up as some sort of fountain of knowledge instead of being called out for talking bollocks.  Indy Sage for example.

Edited by Barry Fish
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