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When will covid end ? Please be nice and respectful to others


Crazyfool01
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10 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

 

...  No need for general society to shut down ever again...
 

Never, ever, under any circumstances, Barry?

I mean, I do hope you're right.

I guess I don't have the same knowledge of what the future holds as you clearly do, Barry.

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9 hours ago, Barry Fish said:

IHME estimates suggest that increasing use of masks to 80% of the population, for example, will only reduce cumulative infections over the next 4 months by 10%.

If it was deemed acceptable to go from 20000 cases a day to 100000 recently then it must also be acceptable to go from 20000 cases to 22000 by giving people all their freedoms back by ditching masks, especially the limited impact that increase in cases would have in hospitalisations and deaths compared to keeping them

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14 hours ago, efcfanwirral said:

It's mad that we've announced what we have this week while France are requiring boosters for most things including long distance trains and Austria are signing into law actual mandatory vaccinations.

yeah, but here mandatory vaccinations are a quick shot. government had water up to the neck in December with Delta and mandatory vaccinations seemed the only way out for them, especially with Omicron coming. it has not been planned very well as the legally basis is still controversial, many people from their own parties and also many experts are not for a mandatory thing and there will be problems with collected data of people in the first few months, so police and other forces can only make spot checks (like when driving too fast). so its a shaky thing (they have included a vaccination tombola now where every 10th vaccinated wins some money), i think it`s necessary, but there would have been other measures, more effective measures like pay for PCR tests, pay for hospital stays for the unvaccinated or some sort of taxes for the unvaccinated or tax relief for the fully vaccinated. so rather controversial here, and a feast for the right wings who claim the freedom for the simple people as they ask the people not to get vaccinated (but by the way many right wings leaders are already vaccinated).

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Now that Devi is no longer accepted in the zero covid club I had a look at the replies to her tweet with her guardian article in it.

There are some really unwell people out there who have totally lost the plot with this thing tbh. It cannot be normal to be that terrified and also put so so much faith in masks.

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9 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

In 12 month time can anyone really see the likes of Austria / France etc keeping this up ?  

The pursuit of the unvaccinated is largely pointless according to the report in the lancent...
 


Drakeford and his type keep saying they are following the science but it seems to me they are following a subset of science which stems from March 2020 and largely pushed by the Indy Sage types...   The science has moved on...  

Good point. The new omicron wave has changed the view on the mandatory thing, also by many experts. But on the other hand the mandatory vaccination for omicron has come far too late. All are saying the mandatory vaccination is for the next coming winter. Maybe it is in the bones here because this winter with all those lockdowns and restrictions (for the unvaccinated) was hardly bearable, especially not for tourist destinations (we are again high risk country for Germany). this winter season has been the worst one I think. and by the way one of our intellectual papers has this Pagel (together with Austrian Expert Ulrich Elling who was one of the first who warned about the devastating effects of omicron) on the front page and her forecast for a new far more worse variant, so media here knows how to keep people concerned, especially as our rollercoaster-wagon is still going upwards now.

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55 minutes ago, Hannibal Schmitt said:

Good point. The new omicron wave has changed the view on the mandatory thing, also by many experts. But on the other hand the mandatory vaccination for omicron has come far too late. All are saying the mandatory vaccination is for the next coming winter. Maybe it is in the bones here because this winter with all those lockdowns and restrictions (for the unvaccinated) was hardly bearable, especially not for tourist destinations (we are again high risk country for Germany). this winter season has been the worst one I think. and by the way one of our intellectual papers has this Pagel (together with Austrian Expert Ulrich Elling who was one of the first who warned about the devastating effects of omicron) on the front page and her forecast for a new far more worse variant, so media here knows how to keep people concerned, especially as our rollercoaster-wagon is still going upwards now.

If its for next winter, have they not (without saying it) made it mandatory for at least a 4th, possibly a 5th dose? Because whatever you take now will be long gone by winter based on the waning data?

Edited by efcfanwirral
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11 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

If its for next winter, have they not (without saying it) made it mandatory for at least a 4th, possibly a 5th dose? Because whatever you take now will be long gone by winter based on the waning data?

Yeah, that is not totally clear. As already stated it`s a quick shot. I assume it could be also mandatory for the 4th or 5th dose. They already cut the validity of 2 doses to 6 months (from 9 months), so that you loose your status as vaccinated after this period, so in theory you are out of public life with that - but that`s the theory - I have been to the biggest electrical store some days ago and you are fully controlled at the entrance, on the other hand stores like H&M do not control anything here. But government has not made it clear until now as they have dodged that question, i think that they are going as far as they have visibility (as they now are fully on all what the experts have to say) - with other doses it seems to far away, especially if it states that vaccination would be useless (so they also made some clauses that they can cancel this new mandatory thing as things go into another direction).

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17 hours ago, efcfanwirral said:

It's mad that we've announced what we have this week while France are requiring boosters for most things including long distance trains and Austria are signing into law actual mandatory vaccinations.

They're just trying to get to the level of vaccination we're already at voluntarily though. 

12 hours ago, Barry Fish said:

IHME estimates suggest that increasing use of masks to 80% of the population, for example, will only reduce cumulative infections over the next 4 months by 10%.

It's really interesting you post that as an argument against masks, despite it saying that masks make a difference. I think that's the crucial thing you're missing, the vast, vast majority of people don't really care about masks one way or the other. Like you said, most wear them when it's the rule, don't when not. The government basically see masks in public places as a zero-cost measure - the economy stays open, people just mask up and get on with it. 

I'm surprised the figures are that high, to be honest, and I don't think we should keep them, but it's an easy argument to make that cutting infections by 10% is worth the "zero" cost of having masks.

2 hours ago, Barry Fish said:

In 12 month time can anyone really see the likes of Austria / France etc keeping this up ?  

The pursuit of the unvaccinated is largely pointless according to the report in the lancent...

Vaccination status might still impact the level of care the infected need though so there's still potential hospital numbers to worry about.

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10 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

I think that's the crucial thing you're missing, the vast, vast majority of people don't really care about masks one way or the other. Like you said, most wear them when it's the rule, don't when not. The government basically see masks in public places as a zero-cost measure - the economy stays open, people just mask up and get on with it.

 

I initially thought this but the reality is any "light touch" measures have real economic impact, it's just unseen. The Playbook leak from October that saw the economic report leak of a full Plan B (literal billions) made a point that even these sorts of interventions still mean people put off doing stuff, think twice about committing to things, maybe stay less time in certain places and therefore spend less money, etc.

All of these people not behaving or making conscious decisions "normally' across 60 million people really does add up, both economically and socially.

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2 hours ago, Barry Fish said:

I think this is the root cause of why you get so much wrong in regards to masks.  You are just simply wrong on this.  Read the post above from Janny.

You don't care about masks so you think everyone else is fine with it.  That isn't how the way the world works - that is called an echo chamber in your mind.

What if, just think about it for a moment, you're the one wrong on it, because you hate masks so think everyone else is the same, and there's an echo chamber in your mind? Just consider, that that might be a remote possibility?

Edited by DeanoL
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2 hours ago, jannybruck said:

I initially thought this but the reality is any "light touch" measures have real economic impact, it's just unseen. The Playbook leak from October that saw the economic report leak of a full Plan B (literal billions) made a point that even these sorts of interventions still mean people put off doing stuff, think twice about committing to things, maybe stay less time in certain places and therefore spend less money, etc.

All of these people not behaving or making conscious decisions "normally' across 60 million people really does add up, both economically and socially.

Oh yeah, there's impact, but I don't think it's impact this government gives a shit about, which is what I was saying in my post. 

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1 minute ago, Barry Fish said:

Hang on...  Lets just stop right here and go back to you comment about zero cost...

Like I said the other day, you can't even agree with yourself on what your opinion is lol

No mate, you're just not reading my posts properly. You even stopped reading that one that explained exactly what I meant again for you, so you could have a pop.

And honestly, you could be right, but the fact you get so angry when people even bring masks up, even though apparently everyone else thinks like you anyway so there's nothing to worry about, makes me even more convinced you're wrong. 

I'm not even in favour of masks. I think without social distancing they are borderline pointless. I was shocked that 10% figure you posted was so high. 

But when I want to do something, I just put a damn piece of cloth over my mouth and go do it, and so do all my friends, and we really don't care. I appreciate you struggle with masks, they're really uncomfortable for you and get you all upset, but maybe consider that's where most of your anger about the issue comes from.

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20 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

No mate, you're just not reading my posts properly. You even stopped reading that one that explained exactly what I meant again for you, so you could have a pop.

And honestly, you could be right, but the fact you get so angry when people even bring masks up, even though apparently everyone else thinks like you anyway so there's nothing to worry about, makes me even more convinced you're wrong. 

I'm not even in favour of masks. I think without social distancing they are borderline pointless. I was shocked that 10% figure you posted was so high. 

But when I want to do something, I just put a damn piece of cloth over my mouth and go do it, and so do all my friends, and we really don't care. I appreciate you struggle with masks, they're really uncomfortable for you and get you all upset, but maybe consider that's where most of your anger about the issue comes from.

To be fair, I also saw your post calling it “zero” costs and got a bit upset, though I tend to not like getting into arguments, or even posting, on here. Though I appreciated you putting quotation marks around “zero,” it still felt you were inferring masks were worth it as an intervention if stopping 10% of cases and the zero you typed felt like you were minimizing their costs.

I change my behaviors dramatically to avoid places that require masks, it’s a big deal to me. It’s possible this is an age issue and younger people have less issues with them? But @jannybruck has already written it better than I could in terms of the cumulative impact of people like me avoiding most activities that require masking. 

Where I am, NYC/USA, there is also a real problem with “experts” claiming masking has zero impact on children and schools with lots of gain. This is slowly (too slowly) being proven wrong with study after study, but another reason the word “zero” gets under my skin, because I see it written all the time by “experts” on Twitter defending things like school and child masking as well. 

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These people are insane. Genuinely feel sorry for their kids. The worst ones imo are Patterson and that Kit Yates guy and the Doctor Oxford person. All have something to sell. The ultimate worst is Eric Feigl-Ding, the guy is a disgrace and he causes so much harm intentionally. Deepti is a fruit loop but don’t really think she’s a bad person just a bit nuts. Pagel probs the lest bad of the lot. At least at one point I’ve tried to see her spread good news even if it’s occasional.

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1 hour ago, DeanoL said:

No mate, you're just not reading my posts properly. You even stopped reading that one that explained exactly what I meant again for you, so you could have a pop.

And honestly, you could be right, but the fact you get so angry when people even bring masks up, even though apparently everyone else thinks like you anyway so there's nothing to worry about, makes me even more convinced you're wrong. 

I'm not even in favour of masks. I think without social distancing they are borderline pointless. I was shocked that 10% figure you posted was so high. 

But when I want to do something, I just put a damn piece of cloth over my mouth and go do it, and so do all my friends, and we really don't care. I appreciate you struggle with masks, they're really uncomfortable for you and get you all upset, but maybe consider that's where most of your anger about the issue comes from.

Oh, id do it if it made a big difference. At the moment, cloth masks make such a minimal difference that id rather put my comfort first

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