When will covid end ? Please be nice and respectful to others

[DeanoL]

I really don't trust this government enough to be comfortable with them stopping publishing figures. 

[steviewevie]

 

[blutarsky]

15 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

 

They've got hold of your medical records @Hugh Jass

[zahidf]

34 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

I really don't trust this government enough to be comfortable with them stopping publishing figures. 

As long as its still on the dashboard like with all respiratory disease, then thatll be fine for transparency. I dont think we need it publicised or pushed for the papers

[pink_triangle]

40 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

 

Can I check if there is a variant that has the opposite effect, just asking for a friend!

[balthazarstarbuck]

41 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

 

Reminds me of the side effects of Covid that were self reported. There were a fair few Herpes and Gonnorheas in there.

Some dangerous variants out there. Stay safe.

[balthazarstarbuck]

9 minutes ago, pink_triangle said:

Can I check if there is a variant that has the opposite effect, just asking for a friend!

Scenes when the antivaxxers were right all along.

[balthazarstarbuck]

3 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

Stay safe stay large ?

Should be Pfizer’s tagline.

[DeanoL]

49 minutes ago, zahidf said:

As long as its still on the dashboard like with all respiratory disease, then thatll be fine for transparency. I dont think we need it publicised or pushed for the papers

Well yeah but that's not something the government can really influence. It's the press choosing to report it or not, and I can't see them stopping while people still want that information - even if we agree it's not good for them.

[zahidf]

18 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

Well yeah but that's not something the government can really influence. It's the press choosing to report it or not, and I can't see them stopping while people still want that information - even if we agree it's not good for them.

They can ( for example) not tweet out the deaths and number of infections on the NHSA twitter feed, or do a specific daily relsase like they do now. They can update the records and keep it open to access, but i suspect a lot of media wont go through the bother of going through all the numbers like that. The weekly ONS update could be the new go to for the papers

[JoeyT]

Under 100k...

 

[Fuzzy Afro]

Plan B will be gone on the 26th 

[lost]

Wasn't Barry Gardinder the Corbynista choice last year to challenge Starmer because he wasn't going down the zero covid/why can't we be like China route?

[Hugh Jass]

4 hours ago, blutarsky said:

They've got hold of your medical records @Hugh Jass

I’m suing!

[zahidf]

Ha ha ha 

 

 

[zero000]

1 hour ago, zahidf said:

Ha ha ha 

 

 

This leaker sure knows how to pour fuel on the fire. This will super charge an already angry tory base with the whole monarchy angle. 

[Paul ™]

5 hours ago, zero000 said:

This leaker sure knows how to pour fuel on the fire. This will super charge an already angry tory base with the whole monarchy angle. 

Cheers Dom 😉

[zahidf]

Ha!

 

 

[efcfanwirral]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-59984873

Easing of restrictions in Wales over the coming weeks, though these quotes are telling - he believes his restrictions worked and that new variants are on the way, so you'd expect a quick return when the next variant comes in, regardless of how things looked elsewhere:

"This is a really rapid decline and backed up by other measures we are seeing in Wales, that's what gives us the space to be able to lift some of the protections we've had and it's because of those protections that we are in the more benign position that we are in today."

and

"My own view is that we are actually still in the pandemic stage because we can't be completely confident that another variant somewhere in the world is brewing today just as Omicron was brewing in South Africa and we saw it sweep through the UK and Wales."

[lost]

The Finnish are estimating Omicron has a IFR less than half of seasonal flu. If thats the case it seems Wales are living in new normal then. At least until Drakeford/labour are out of power.

Edited January 14, 2022 by lost

[zahidf]

10 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-59984873

Easing of restrictions in Wales over the coming weeks, though these quotes are telling - he believes his restrictions worked and that new variants are on the way, so you'd expect a quick return when the next variant comes in, regardless of how things looked elsewhere:

"This is a really rapid decline and backed up by other measures we are seeing in Wales, that's what gives us the space to be able to lift some of the protections we've had and it's because of those protections that we are in the more benign position that we are in today."

and

"My own view is that we are actually still in the pandemic stage because we can't be completely confident that another variant somewhere in the world is brewing today just as Omicron was brewing in South Africa and we saw it sweep through the UK and Wales."

Well he's hardly going to say 'I MADE A TERRIBLE MISTAKE '

[stuartbert two hats]

On 1/11/2022 at 1:24 PM, TheSheriff said:

Last Friday he said that he didn’t anticipate changing anything for at least a fortnight when he expected the peak to be over. You could argue we are over the peak. I expect he’ll be sluggish to release restrictions sorry “protections”

"Rose more sharply", or at a push the "The COVID-19 case rate rise in Wale was sharper".  

[stuartbert two hats]

On 1/12/2022 at 9:36 AM, DeanoL said:

Isn't daily or every other day testing still compulsory for healthcare people though?  I feel like that's the biggest issue we have at the moment - that lack of supply issue for hospitals, rather than high demand. If it doesn't tackle that it's just pushing at the corners.

Sometimes people are getting their first positive test at a later point in their infection.  So, a combination of clearing up faster and taking longer to register.

[efcfanwirral]

1 hour ago, lost said:

The Finnish are estimating Omicron has a IFR less than half of seasonal flu. If thats the case it seems Wales are living in new normal then. At least until Drakeford/labour are out of power.

And with flu pretty much completely disappearing, that bodes well for the NHS in the future...

[Fuzzy Afro]

6 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

This bit confuses me...

If covid outcompetes flu...  to the point apparently we have to believe its not around... and covid is here forever...  then flu is gone forever right ? 

Obviously flu isn't gone forever...  I just think some of the stuff we are being told right now about flu not being around is on thin ice.  

Keep in mind...  We never routinely tested for flu in the past.  Not like we do with covid.

Covid doesn’t really “outcompete” flu in the way that omicron outcompeted delta, or that delta outcompeted alpha etc 

 

 

The reason omicron outcompeted delta is because it spreads through the population very quickly and gives people antibodies that then stop them getting delta a few weeks later, effectively meaning delta is reduced to insignificance.

 

With the flu, there isn’t really that cross-immunity that we have between different variants of covid. So having covid today won’t stop you getting the flu in 2 months time. The reason the flu has been insignificant for the past 2 winters is because of behavioural changes (either mandatory or voluntary) that inhibit flu’s ability to spread. Obviously the lockdown last year was the key driver of this but this year it’s working from home, masks and some people generally choosing to stay apart.

 

With flu you really don’t need much in the way of NPIs to push the R number below 1. Flu is nowhere near as transmissible as covid and in a standard winter season, the R number is just slightly above 1. This means that pretty much any covid measure that’s implemented will be enough to suppress the flu season as well.