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When will covid end ? Please be nice and respectful to others


Crazyfool01
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1 hour ago, Barry Fish said:

Not true..   it was the fear of overloading.  A key difference .  The hospitals where never at a point of overload.  

The enquiry need to examine this more closely to see if it was right or not 

They were - even after other wards were converted to COVID wards, they were more aggressively triaging at the ambulance stage. 

The notion of hospitals being "overloaded" is a difficult one as it never looks that way because it's not how most of the system works. Rather you call an ambulance, they make an assessment and then take you in to one or not. And they were operating under instructions based on how many beds were actually available. 

Again, I'd really recommend the book Failures of State (https://www.amazon.co.uk/Failures-State-Inside-Britains-Coronavirus/dp/0008430527) as it covers a lot of what was actually happening at that point in hospitals, but for the gist here's something from The Guardian's review that also speaks a bit to the point you're making:

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There are lesser-known horrors in the catalogue too. The authors are keen to explode the comforting narrative that the NHS coped with the pandemic even at its peak, and that everyone got the care they needed. They report that some hospitals were forced to ration treatment according to a set of guidelines that struck doctors and nurses as “Nazi-like”, denying intensive care to those who scored too high on three metrics: age, frailty and underlying conditions. Whole categories of people – the old, the weak, the disabled – were denied the critical care that might have saved their lives.

Incredibly, the guidelines were so rigorously enforced that in one Midlands hospital, dozens of intensive care beds lay empty, kept free for younger, fitter patients, while those over-75 were left dying on regular wards, without even being offered non-invasive ventilation. It meant that of the patients who died at the height of the pandemic in April, just 10% had received any intensive care.

Yes, the hospitals were not physically overloaded, and yes some had spare capacity, but that was down to extreme rationing of care, not because there weren't really that many bad cases.

(And you and I probably agree that actually, we should have rationed even further and still done important cancer operations and other "less urgent" but still life-saving interventions)

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6 hours ago, efcfanwirral said:

Yeah but its the very start of winter - we saw what happened last November and December, and while there's modelling saying it'll go down by Christmas, it's pretty much the same modelling that said 100k cases / 7k hospitalisations so I'm not believing that any more than the more outlandish models in the other direction.

If we get through to Feb/March without it getting bad enough to have restrictions we can confidently say we're all good, but for now it's not even started

It indicates that there's a ceiling at which case numbers will level off and then drop though as immunity builds.

I'm as optimistic as I've been that this winter is going to be nowhere near as bad as feared. 

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7 minutes ago, zahidf said:

He's just a twitter mathematician though. Why is he getting so involved in public health issues as to how many people die every day? There's a reason why I'm avoiding knowing that number in general. 

 

correct hes a mathematician and you are just a guy on an internet forum with a strange dislike for women scientists .... or thats how it comes across anyway ... 

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9 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

correct hes a mathematician and you are just a guy on an internet forum with a strange dislike for women scientists .... or thats how it comes across anyway ... 

Pretty big accusation of sexism there. I think his issue with pagel and deepti is cause they want to bring back restrictions when he feels that is totally unnecessary. They’re also so often wrong it’s pretty infuriating. 

Can’t help but feel you wanted to try make some point due to the misogyny thread in the glasto section and have for some reason called out zahid in here when he says something against a male mathematician

 

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6 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

Pretty big accusation of sexism there. I think his issue with pagel and deepti is cause they want to bring back restrictions when he feels that is totally unnecessary. They’re also so often wrong it’s pretty infuriating. 

Can’t help but feel you wanted to try make some point due to the misogyny thread in the glasto section and have for some reason called out zahid in here when he says something against a male mathematician

 

its pretty boring hearing the same thing over and over tbh .... but carry on .... how many members do sage have ? how many do independent sage have ?  I could quote the same  repetative thing about the same 3 scientists couldnt I ?

 

edit post there was bristol oliver so maybe I should have quoted another post tbh 

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20 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

correct hes a mathematician and you are just a guy on an internet forum with a strange dislike for women scientists .... or thats how it comes across anyway ... 

That's a bit out of order. Especially as I've been nothing but respectful towards you, even though I disagree with aspects of what you post. 

I've had a go at fegruson and others when they talk rubbish about restrictions. I have an issue with what fake SAGE say, I don't mention their gender at all

 

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42 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

Nice Shipman joke.. funny guy 

He really cares about Covid deaths though, so he's a good person. Just ignore tasteless comparisons between a mass murdering doctor to deaths from a virus a lot of doctors have died whilst trying to save lives

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1 minute ago, zahidf said:

That's a bit out of order. Especially as I've been nothing but respectful towards you, even though I disagree with aspects of what you post. 

I've had a go at fegruson and others when they talk rubbish about restrictions. I have an issue with what fake SAGE say, I don't mention their gender at all

 

seems pretty consistent on this thread ....apologies if ive chosen to quote you ..... intention not to single out and individual but make a wider point ..... those scientists seem to get a very large amount of abuse on here which seems very disproportionate to the number of people in fake sage or sage .... lots of people have opinions that can be wrong ir perceived by others as wrong ....we have a PM and govt that seems to avoid much blame on here .... 

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28 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

seems pretty consistent on this thread ....apologies if ive chosen to quote you ..... intention not to single out and individual but make a wider point ..... those scientists seem to get a very large amount of abuse on here which seems very disproportionate to the number of people in fake sage or sage .... lots of people have opinions that can be wrong ir perceived by others as wrong ....we have a PM and govt that seems to avoid much blame on here .... 

Why do you always immediately back track after stuff like this. You clearly called him out and implied he was a misogynist and now you’re trying to say you weren’t trying to single him out. At least own it fs 

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8 hours ago, Barry Fish said:

the idea they can or will stop friends and family seeing each other again is for the birds

Remember that they were surprised by how much compliance there was with the original lockdown? I'm pretty sure they'd be comfortable introducing a measure that they know a significant fraction of the population would ignore. And some people possibly even most people would follow it, or at least it would make them more hesitant in doing things thus somewhat reducing mixing.

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14 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

enjoy Christmas on your own 

Hopefully not, even under last year's rules we like the Prime Minister availed ourselves of a childcare bubble to allow my mother to stay with us for a few days, although this year's plans are different anyway. 

I'm not advocating a ban on mixing, I think things would need to be a lot worse for that, and I'm not convinced things can get that bad with the level of vaccine protection we have, all I'm saying is if the government did instigate such a ban some people would be less likely to meet up and some would behave themselves and follow the rules entirely. 

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