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When will covid end ? Please be nice and respectful to others


Crazyfool01
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On 9/11/2021 at 1:43 PM, zahidf said:

"Imminent healthcare collapse/people dying on the streets" might be considered a good reason to dramatically impinge liberties in such a way. "The staff are tired" isn't.

Tired staff leads to ill staff leads to off-work staff leads to healthcare collapse. You're right, it's not enough in isolation but it's an early warning sign.

On 9/15/2021 at 9:41 AM, Homer said:

Just reading a survey release I've been sent for work. Find it baffling. What is actually wrong with some people?!

Since the hospitality sector reopened one in seven (14%) people have not turned up to their reservation, with one in eight (12%) people saying they are more likely to no-show than they were before the pandemic.

A positive LFT I'd imagine?

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So went to our first gigs in forever at the weekend - Frank Turner's Lost Evenings festival in Camden. It's a weird fucking world of half measures and mixed messages right now. The event itself was fun, we had seats on the balcony as we're not quite ready for sweaty standing gigs quite yet but it just all seemed so bizarre with the whole half-measures thing.

The strategy at the moment seems to be to let it spread and trust the vaccine, which is a strategy - regardless of what I think of it or what I might have done differently, it's what we're doing, I can't change it, may as well enjoy ourselves on the way. But then you still have to self-isolate if you test positive. But testing isn't compulsory for events and such. 

But then the venue says, "we'd appreciate it if you'd do an LFT before and not attend if positive" - "sure, will you give me my £120 quid back if I have to isolate?" - "not a chance". So people just don't test. Why give yourself the ethical dilemma?

The staff were all wearing masks. Okay, cool, appreciate that, don't know if it's necessary but it's nice. We wore masks until we got to our seats as it felt right to reciprocate that action. But then one of the security guys doing searches on the way in had no mask and a badge that says "I'm exempt from wearing a mask" and well... what's the point in that? I'm sure he had legit reasons for not wearing one but if your venue policy is going to be "staff should wear masks" then maybe front of house isn't the place for that staff member? Unless you know it's all theatre anyway...

Guy at the front in the mosh pit wearing a mask through the entire gig. I mean, sure, if you want to but yeah, that person has lost all ability to assess risk. 

Hell, even Frank was happily encouraging circle pits and crowd surfing but it was the first time I've not seen him go crowd surfing himself in years... presumably because he's testing every day (along with the band and crew) and he doesn't want to pull the gigs if he catches it.

Was a fun few days, certainly helped get us over some mental hurdles on the path back to normality but the half-measures that remain in place seem utterly pointless.

Especially as cases haven't exploded like we thought they would. Like we *all* thought they would, to one degree or another. I know this thread is now mostly people bitching about fake SAGE and bragging that they were right all along, but I'd point out we haven't actually hit the peak yet, and the driving argument that was being made in Spring for dropping restrictions is that we were going to have a peak, and we wanted to have it in Summer, not Winter. Winter is around the corner, and unless numbers do keep continuously dropping the next few weeks, we're not at that peak yet - so the problem folks were so desperate to avoid is still a potential problem.

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4 hours ago, Barry Fish said:

Thanks for this...

Hopefully good news on kids and AZ!   Need the details

Currently only covers jabs recognized by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) but the EU have said they are hopeful a decision on the other jabs will be reached by November 1st. It will also affect countries like Hungary who have used the Russian and Chinese jabs.

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37 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

So went to our first gigs in forever at the weekend - Frank Turner's Lost Evenings festival in Camden. It's a weird fucking world of half measures and mixed messages right now. The event itself was fun, we had seats on the balcony as we're not quite ready for sweaty standing gigs quite yet but it just all seemed so bizarre with the whole half-measures thing.

The strategy at the moment seems to be to let it spread and trust the vaccine, which is a strategy - regardless of what I think of it or what I might have done differently, it's what we're doing, I can't change it, may as well enjoy ourselves on the way. But then you still have to self-isolate if you test positive. But testing isn't compulsory for events and such. 

But then the venue says, "we'd appreciate it if you'd do an LFT before and not attend if positive" - "sure, will you give me my £120 quid back if I have to isolate?" - "not a chance". So people just don't test. Why give yourself the ethical dilemma?

The staff were all wearing masks. Okay, cool, appreciate that, don't know if it's necessary but it's nice. We wore masks until we got to our seats as it felt right to reciprocate that action. But then one of the security guys doing searches on the way in had no mask and a badge that says "I'm exempt from wearing a mask" and well... what's the point in that? I'm sure he had legit reasons for not wearing one but if your venue policy is going to be "staff should wear masks" then maybe front of house isn't the place for that staff member? Unless you know it's all theatre anyway...

Guy at the front in the mosh pit wearing a mask through the entire gig. I mean, sure, if you want to but yeah, that person has lost all ability to assess risk. 

Hell, even Frank was happily encouraging circle pits and crowd surfing but it was the first time I've not seen him go crowd surfing himself in years... presumably because he's testing every day (along with the band and crew) and he doesn't want to pull the gigs if he catches it.

Was a fun few days, certainly helped get us over some mental hurdles on the path back to normality but the half-measures that remain in place seem utterly pointless.

Especially as cases haven't exploded like we thought they would. Like we *all* thought they would, to one degree or another. I know this thread is now mostly people bitching about fake SAGE and bragging that they were right all along, but I'd point out we haven't actually hit the peak yet, and the driving argument that was being made in Spring for dropping restrictions is that we were going to have a peak, and we wanted to have it in Summer, not Winter. Winter is around the corner, and unless numbers do keep continuously dropping the next few weeks, we're not at that peak yet - so the problem folks were so desperate to avoid is still a potential problem.

I think we're heading towards a terrible winter, but that it is and always was inevitable, so people are having a decent release now (some of us more than others) to help make the next few months a bit easier

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1 hour ago, DeanoL said:

Tired staff leads to ill staff leads to off-work staff leads to healthcare collapse. You're right, it's not enough in isolation but it's an early warning sign.

A positive LFT I'd imagine?

I had covid recently. Was still able to operate a phone.

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Wearing a mask in a mosh pit is utterly bizarre behaviour to be honest.

 

 

NPIs like masks, 2m distancing, ventilation etc all work best when combined together. You don’t just get to pick your preferred form of mitigation and roll with it and throw caution to the wind otherwise. There’s a very weird misconception on the internet (mainly from Americans) that mask mandates are the most effective intervention, even more so that vaccines and lockdowns.

 

 

Anyone attending an indoor gig at the moment is accepting a material risk that they will catch covid at the event.
 

You can reduce that risk significantly by being double jabbed (and the brucie bonus is that if you DO catch Covid, it’s unlikely to be more than a sniffle!)

 

The overall risk can be reduced by attending events that have some form of covid certification in place

 

 But anyone who thinks a piece of cloth over the mouth and nose is going to stop you catching covid in the mosh pits at the front of a sweaty indoor gig has a completely warped view of the efficacy of masks.

 

 

Masks are useful in certain circumstances but some people seriously overrate them. 

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2 hours ago, Barry Fish said:

The headline doesn't mention the 100k cash and the empty bags which are probably of more interest to the police. 

 

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10 minutes ago, Ryan1984 said:


I normally like Alice and know full well how bad it is in schools but this seems quite close to ‘zero Covid’, which we all knew was never going to happen? 

I think the argument is we could have got cases/deaths down to a lower level before fully opening up....but as it is we've hardly dropped below 100 deaths/day since end of July, and that would have looked catastrophic at one time but now seems to be an acceptable new normal.

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28 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

I think the argument is we could have got cases/deaths down to a lower level before fully opening up....but as it is we've hardly dropped below 100 deaths/day since end of July, and that would have looked catastrophic at one time but now seems to be an acceptable new normal.

Well around 1500 people die of all causes a day in the UK. I dont think covid is a top 3 reason for death at the moment.

 

It's only 'normalised ' if people think the deaths are preventable. Unless we want forever restrictions, they aren't.

Worth noting hospitalisations are lower now than they were in July. Its been 2 months since we reopened.

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23 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Well around 1500 people die of all causes a day in the UK. I dont think covid is a top 3 reason for death at the moment.

 

It's only 'normalised ' if people think the deaths are preventable. Unless we want forever restrictions, they aren't.

Worth noting hospitalisations are lower now than they were in July. Its been 2 months since we reopened.

yeah...ok....but in theory we could have got covid down to a lower level and then opened up and had a lower death rate...unless 30+k cases and 100-200 deaths/day was where we would have ended up no matter what....

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So .... I wear a mask at work and im quite happy to continue to do so , this isnt to protect me its for other people that  are nervous about going into shops its fairly fundamental that people can buy food and visit a pharmacy without being scared and know that others do what they can to protect them .... Im also quite happy to keep testing and mitigating risk to others .... ive accepted risk to me by doing a festival and gig ..... I understand we have opened but this doesnt mean that we cant do some of the basics to reduce spread ,  which we could all be doing and many are .

Covid.and the knock on effects remain a threat to the health service as we can see by the draughting in of the Army to help in the Ambulance service .... my brother is on standby to return to his help role in the ambulance service from the fire brigade and infection numbers sadly have in the last few days started to see the impact of schools returning with no mitigations ... no masks (rightly or wrongly ) inadequate ventilation and the removal of bubbles . Those numbers are unfortunately going to rise as it spreads .... hopefully we will see a drop in a few weeks like Scotland ... but we get dangerously close to winter now with high virus levels in the community and thats a concern to me .

oh and just a quick point on nhs pay .... they ALL absolutely deserve a pay rise GPS and everyone else for the shit they suffer daily and throughout the pandemic and the hours they work  perhaps some might like to try that job for a bit ..... 

 

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2 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

yeah...ok....but in theory we could have got covid down to a lower level and then opened up and had a lower death rate...unless 30+k cases and 100-200 deaths/day was where we would have ended up no matter what....

We had less cases in June but didn't open up then because of less vaccinations. We delayed 5 weeks for more vaxes. I dont think moving from step 3 to 4 increased things massively. Only way to have kept things going down was going back to step 2, which I consider unacceptable 

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12 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Anyway, back to that tweet from that Alice Roberts...she is arguing as cases are up in schools the govt could have done more to prevent that, vaxxing kids, better ventilation etc. But, they didn't. Could lead to things getting worse, or maybe not...but if it does then govt will get some blame for that.

Jabs for kids was the JVCI decision. Its not a slam dunk or easy decision and the boffins have given their reasons for their consideration on the issue. Are the fake SAGE lot saying the govt should ignore the JVCI?

And yes on ventilation, but it's easy to say, harder to do. Can't just 'open a window'

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1 hour ago, zahidf said:

Jabs for kids was the JVCI decision. Its not a slam dunk or easy decision and the boffins have given their reasons for their consideration on the issue. Are the fake SAGE lot saying the govt should ignore the JVCI?

And yes on ventilation, but it's easy to say, harder to do. Can't just 'open a window'

The govt have ignored JVCI.

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5 hours ago, Barry Fish said:

Cases being reported in school children are down vs the same time last year apparently when we did have more restrictions on the kids.  Absence rates are down.  Schools only reflect community transmission via the increased testing kids under take vs the general population.  You need to stop reading indy sage.

Nice to see you are burning a candle for the very well paid GPs who can't be arsed doing their jobs properly.

You might want to be more concerned that moving into winter people still cant see their GP

image.thumb.png.957454e4818b8e3309670831e40082d1.png

And you think that is gonna get better if we do nothing to prevent the spread of covid ? Cases in kids will lead to cases elsewhere …. Or is there a magic wall between cases and parents ? You do spout some absolute rubbish  if people can’t see a gp now have a think about how much worse it’s going to get …. But let’s pedal some anti gp stuff as it’s easier to blame them than the govt and the anti gp stuff will help with the dismantling of the nhs ... oh and I believe that headline about as much as I did the freddie starr ate my hamster and the other horrendous ones published by the scum about Hillsborough .... clickbait crap ... wonder if they rang nhs 111 ?  

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5 hours ago, crazyfool1 said:

And you think that is gonna get better if we do nothing to prevent the spread of covid ? Cases in kids will lead to cases elsewhere …. Or is there a magic wall between cases and parents ? You do spout some absolute rubbish  if people can’t see a gp now have a think about how much worse it’s going to get …. But let’s pedal some anti gp stuff as it’s easier to blame them than the govt and the anti gp stuff will help with the dismantling of the nhs ... oh and I believe that headline about as much as I did the freddie starr ate my hamster and the other horrendous ones published by the scum about Hillsborough .... clickbait crap ... wonder if they rang nhs 111 ?  

I can only talk from first-hand experience here but someone close to me is a TA and their class had 10 kids and two teachers off last week after all testing positive (all in the same class of 30). Another local school also had 150 positive LFTs throughout the school. They made all the students take PCR tests and 75i-sh tested positive again.

The schools are a mess.

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On 9/21/2021 at 7:49 AM, Barry Fish said:

If it all comes crashing down in the winter then that would probably happen regardless of whatever has happened between now and July.

Pretty much where I am with it - as you said the NHS is in deep trouble this winter for more than just covid reasons. When flu really kicks in we'll probably have to be moving back a step or two (or worse) but it'd have kicked in even if we'd stayed at step 3 indefinitely, considering covid was going up then anyway so clearly other things would too

I don't think taking covid completely off the table for the nhs would solve all the problems for this winter either.

Edited by efcfanwirral
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46 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

When flu really kicks in

To help on this front the Scottish NHS is trying to fuck up the flu vaccinations. They've decided to use the COVID mass vaccination centres rather than the usual local GP plus local temporary sites, the dreaded blue letters are being sent out to the first people on the lists this week which has led to a load of confused old dears being asked to travel miles away to make appointments that when they phone up to rearrange they get told the site for changing appointments hasn't been set up yet.

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9 hours ago, Barry Fish said:

Cases being reported in school children are down vs the same time last year apparently when we did have more restrictions on the kids.  Absence rates are down.  Schools only reflect community transmission via the increased testing kids under take vs the general population.  You need to stop reading indy sage.

Schools are no worse than anything else for transmission but that doesn't mean no transmission happens. Everything *only* reflects community transmission. Reflects and magnifies it. Every gathering of people does that. Takes a few cases and spreads it to a few others. The initial fears that schools would be worse because of how kids socialise proved unfounded, but spread still happens, and the issue is that there are loads of schools with loads of kids in each of them. 

If we had "super-pubs" that everyone was required to attend for 7 hours, 5 days a week, they wouldn't spread COVID any more than a regular pub either - but the fact that people were attending them so often, and so many people were going to them, would certainly see increases.

Not that, at this point, it's worth sacrificing kids' education to avoid it, but the handwaving of "just community transmission" ignores the fact that there's loads of schools and loads of people in them.

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26 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

I accept some transmission happens but you can't ignore the experts (the real ones paid to do the job and not just anti government gobsn and media whores) still point to schools not being a driver for the pandemic.

Then what is the "driver for the pandemic?" It doesn't seem to be any one thing- at least, not that those same experts have identified. Schools are no worse than anything else but no better either. Workplaces are not a driver either but many companies are still encouraging staff to work from home and I'd worry if every single office in the country decided to get everyone back at pre-pandemic levels on the same day too.

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30 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

Then what is the "driver for the pandemic?" It doesn't seem to be any one thing- at least, not that those same experts have identified. 

There were people joking back in March that our lockdown was so strict it was managing to reduce cases in Sweden as well 😆 It just seems to come in waves which rise and fall, very little regarding the things governments have done seem to have made a massive difference.

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