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When will covid end ? Please be nice and respectful to others


Crazyfool01
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4 minutes ago, 5co77ie said:

As I say I know of at least 20 friends with Long Covid - a handful of which have been told they will have it for life  - that's at home unable to do sod all for the rest of their days, I'm sure they can see no endpoint at present. I find it interesting that Insurance companies are refusing to cover it in policies and even employers are starting to have difficult decisions with 1 in 4 of those with Covid having Long Covid - if we are going to infect the whole population with it - we better have a back up for the debilitating long term effects if we intend to put 10 million or so in the Long Covid corner. A friend of mine was a decent compound archer he caught Covid in April this year - he's only just started showing symptoms a few weeks ago - now he can't even hold his bow up and walks with difficulty with a stick - he's 23. At the moment Long Covid isn't even classed as a disability.

https://www.reward-strategy.com/opinion/should-long-covid-be-considered-a-disability-19777

Are they vaccinated with double doses?

 

i agree we need to know more. But social distancing will just destroy the economy and cause more suffering. So i dont really see what the least bad option is other than making sure people are vaxxed and putting more money in the NHS

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12 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

Were any of these post vaccine? 

Not that I'm aware of most showed symptoms of long covid having been jabbed after they already had had covid, and have been subsequently been second jabbed. There's two who were asymptomatic and have no idea when they caught it they just have Long Covid now - but I suspect that was before their second jab (due to average Long Covid symptom appearance times). The length of time until Long Covid develops means no one knows yet if the double jabbed that have it now will develop it, I know two double jabbed sufferers at present - one a reviewer for this very website and one's my accountant - they are unlikely to exhibit Long Covid until Christmas by my reckoning (if at all). But it's unlikely that a vaccine would halt post viral fatigue - none have in the past.

 

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12 minutes ago, zahidf said:

i agree we need to know more. But social distancing will just destroy the economy and cause more suffering. So i dont really see what the least bad option is other than making sure people are vaxxed and putting more money in the NHS

...and what will 10 million workers off for a year with post viral fatigue do to the economy? Much like this government you're not thinking long term. Or say all the workers in a sector - like say Festivals or live music? Ah maybe if you're a government that's not a fan of those sectors you are thinking long term...

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20 minutes ago, 5co77ie said:

Not that I'm aware of most showed symptoms of long covid having been jabbed after they already had had covid, and have been subsequently been second jabbed. There's two who were asymptomatic and have no idea when they caught it they just have Long Covid now - but I suspect that was before their second jab (due to average Long Covid symptom appearance times). The length of time until Long Covid develops means no one knows yet if the double jabbed that have it now will develop it, I know two double jabbed sufferers at present - one a reviewer for this very website and one's my accountant - they are unlikely to exhibit Long Covid until Christmas by my reckoning (if at all). But it's unlikely that a vaccine would halt post viral fatigue - none have in the past.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/may/18/long-covid-symptoms-ease-after-vaccination-survey-finds

 

Exclusive: Fifty-seven per cent of people with illness say they were better overall after jab

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14 minutes ago, 5co77ie said:

...and what will 10 million workers off for a year with post viral fatigue do to the economy? Much like this government you're not thinking long term. Or say all the workers in a sector - like say Festivals or live music? Ah maybe if you're a government that's not a fan of those sectors you are thinking long term...

We arent going to have an sixth or so of the population off work due to long covid for a year. Come on

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5 minutes ago, zahidf said:

We arent going to have an sixth or so of the population off work due to long covid for a year. Come on

22% of those who get Covid - by government's scientists' own reckoning - https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/962830/s1079-ons-update-on-long-covid-prevalence-estimate.pdf

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30 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Are they vaccinated with double doses?

 

i agree we need to know more. But social distancing will just destroy the economy and cause more suffering. So i dont really see what the least bad option is other than making sure people are vaxxed and putting more money in the NHS

This needs to happen regardless of how many more vaccinations happen now. 

All I keep reading is how the NHS is heading for a crisis this winter, and while yes its too late to stop it this year, I'm not seeing anything about urgently increasing capacity for when it's needed in the future. And actually haven't seen a whole lot of that over the past 18 months either. 

There's a mistaken belief in the wider world that vaccinations will get the NHS back to normal, but the backlog means it's just not the case. And even so, it sounds like "normal" is being in trouble with just a regular winter...

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9 minutes ago, zahidf said:

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/may/18/long-covid-symptoms-ease-after-vaccination-survey-finds

 

Exclusive: Fifty-seven per cent of people with illness say they were better overall after jab

interesting that most spokespeople for Long Covid sufferers groups don't tend to bear out that figure (3 months after The Guardian published it): https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/health/coronavirus/long-covid-sufferer-calls-for-more-support-for-those-with-ongoing-coronavirus-symptoms-after-worst-16-months-of-my-life-3353706

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9 minutes ago, 5co77ie said:

That was in Feb 2021 pre-mass vaccinations, and doesnt mean 22% of the popualtin will get Covid anyway

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The latest government report puts Long Covid cases at - 945,000 people living in private households in the UK (1.46% of the population)

 

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/prevalenceofongoingsymptomsfollowingcoronaviruscovid19infectionintheuk/5august2021

 

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6 minutes ago, 5co77ie said:

interesting that most spokespeople for Long Covid sufferers groups don't tend to bear out that figure (3 months after The Guardian published it): https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/health/coronavirus/long-covid-sufferer-calls-for-more-support-for-those-with-ongoing-coronavirus-symptoms-after-worst-16-months-of-my-life-3353706

thats very sad but still andectotal

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12 minutes ago, zahidf said:

 

thats very sad but still andectotal

I only have anecdotal - I'm part of my local community support fro Long Covid sufferers - none of them say they feel any better for having had the jabs. As I said at the beginning of today- we are yet to have anyone who has gotten Long Covid for the first time having caught Covid for the first time after they've had both jabs. But I'm only aware of people getting Covid having had both jabs in the last few weeks so I think  it's too early to set the fireworks off just yet.

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On 8/21/2021 at 9:13 AM, eFestivals said:

anyone suffering from long covid?

Might be worth asking your doc if you coul have pregabolin. I know its been prescribed to some people with long covid, and has been useful in reducing symptoms.

that's probably more useful than a second jab (for Long Covid).

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14 minutes ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

That is really shit 😞 

Tell me about, my wife works with someone who had Covid in 2020, went to Boardmasters (in a working capacity) and now has it again  - she's not well but at home, and is also double jabbed.

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1 hour ago, 5co77ie said:

As I say I know of at least 20 friends with Long Covid - a handful of which have been told they will have it for life  - that's at home unable to do sod all for the rest of their days, I'm sure they can see no endpoint at present.

Heya - genuine question as I'm interested and you seem to be the most informed on long COVID on here - how have medical staff been able to tell people they'll have it for life? My understanding was we don't entirely understand what it is right now, and new treatments are cropping up regularly? Unless it's trigged some underlying condition? Just struck me as odd.

It's a difficult situation at the moment - just saw the Get Cape Wear Cape Fly tour due next month has been postponed as they can't get insurance for it. And shows that would normally sell fast don't seem to be selling as fast - though there could be multiple reasons for that (not least for us, it seems like every show we had booked in 2020 has been moved to September this year!)

The weird thing is, I spent most of the first half of the year arguing with the "if not now, when?" crowd by saying "once all adults are double vaxxed." It seemed obvious to me - we make ourselves as safe as possible then open up. It made absolute sense to wait until that point.

And that's roundabout the point we are at right now. And my view hasn't changed, which means I am now one of the "if not now, when?" crowd myself! We've done all we can, long COVID may just be something we have to deal with as a society. I don't see any other route out of it other than indefinite lockdown. We can talk all we want about distanced events and continued mask wearing, but in the period of time where we were doing that *cases were still going up*. At a slower rate, for sure, but if that's your "new normal" then they're going to continue going up (because exponential growth) and they're going to peak at the same point - it's just that peak will be at a later point in time. Which is useful if your concern is hospitals being overrun, but not if your concern is overall infection (and therefore long COVID) numbers. They'll be the same.

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33 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

Losing you sense of smell or taste (for example and counts as long covid)...  for 12 weeks or more...  doesn't keep people off work..

If [your favourite band] end up headlining the Pyramid next year it's Michael Eavis got long COVID and temporarily lost all sense of taste.

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55 minutes ago, 5co77ie said:

I only have anecdotal - I'm part of my local community support fro Long Covid sufferers - none of them say they feel any better for having had the jabs. As I said at the beginning of today- we are yet to have anyone who has gotten Long Covid for the first time having caught Covid for the first time after they've had both jabs. But I'm only aware of people getting Covid having had both jabs in the last few weeks so I think  it's too early to set the fireworks off just yet.

True, but this sounds like something we have to manage rather that we have to prevent people catching. With vaccines, the numbers are low enough so social distancing restrictions should not be countenanced. 

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9 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

Heya - genuine question as I'm interested and you seem to be the most informed on long COVID on here - how have medical staff been able to tell people they'll have it for life? My understanding was we don't entirely understand what it is right now, and new treatments are cropping up regularly? Unless it's trigged some underlying condition? Just struck me as odd.

It's a difficult situation at the moment - just saw the Get Cape Wear Cape Fly tour due next month has been postponed as they can't get insurance for it. And shows that would normally sell fast don't seem to be selling as fast - though there could be multiple reasons for that (not least for us, it seems like every show we had booked in 2020 has been moved to September this year!)

The weird thing is, I spent most of the first half of the year arguing with the "if not now, when?" crowd by saying "once all adults are double vaxxed." It seemed obvious to me - we make ourselves as safe as possible then open up. It made absolute sense to wait until that point.

And that's roundabout the point we are at right now. And my view hasn't changed, which means I am now one of the "if not now, when?" crowd myself! We've done all we can, long COVID may just be something we have to deal with as a society. I don't see any other route out of it other than indefinite lockdown. We can talk all we want about distanced events and continued mask wearing, but in the period of time where we were doing that *cases were still going up*. At a slower rate, for sure, but if that's your "new normal" then they're going to continue going up (because exponential growth) and they're going to peak at the same point - it's just that peak will be at a later point in time. Which is useful if your concern is hospitals being overrun, but not if your concern is overall infection (and therefore long COVID) numbers. They'll be the same.

Yeah, thats my general view as well. Circuit breaker lockdowns don't work, we pretty much have as much vaccine coverage as we are going to have ( unless we want to wait to vax kids, but thats another minefield) and the NHS isnt looking like its going to be overwhelmed.

Any restrictions proposed now are basically going to be permanent ones. And id rather have the societal risks of Covid than social distancing as  permanent thing

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1 hour ago, DeanoL said:

Heya - genuine question as I'm interested and you seem to be the most informed on long COVID on here - how have medical staff been able to tell people they'll have it for life? My understanding was we don't entirely understand what it is right now, and new treatments are cropping up regularly? Unless it's trigged some underlying condition? Just struck me as odd.

 

strikes me as odd too - I've no idea how clinicians come to these outcomes, and my role (to some extent) is to help those who are told that to be able to deal with it - and recommend pathways - be it practitioners, therapists, treatments and wellbeing options to help them cope going forward and process where they are with it now. 

All i know is it's based on the state of the person's nervous and immune system. The archer I was talking about earlier hasn't been able to recharge his batteries or escape constant fatigue - and they've come to that decision based on how knackered he is. Obviously he's in CBT Therapy and the like so he's getting help and drugs to manage the condition - but there's no sign of him not having to live with it - that's not to say treatment won't make him more able to cope. I believe in readiness for next year the Government have chucked hundreds of millions of pounds at Chronic fatigue syndrome (and by extension ME) in an attempt to R&D better drugs to cope with it.

 

My worry is no one of us, has a scooby how many people could get Long Covid, how badly, or what long term effects we could have to endure. I've not been on eFestivals much despite being back working behind the scenes - because I'm cascadent at how irresponsible it is for Boris and Co. to put the economy over the general population, over something we literally have no data on yet. I know in South Devon last year the number needing Long Covid support could be counted on one hand now we have over 300 to help, including teenagers, and that's just those accepting of their condition - I'm firmly of the opinion there's hundreds more that are just feeling a "bit tired all the time" and not getting help. 

NERVTAG data on genomic analysis back in January showed that the relative prevalence odds of the Delta variant doubled every 6.4 days, was 70% more infectious, and had a 'higher chance of developing Long Covid' - yet the warnings were not passed on to the public. For comparison of that 900,000+ currently in the UK with Long Covid the nearest similar condition is Myalgic encephalomyelitis (ME) or chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS) - which is where pre-Covid many of our recommendations for practitioners were from. Total numbers of ME-CFS patients in the UK in 2019? Well it was around 250,000 in the UK, and around 17 million people worldwide, Long-Covid already is far above that.

It is highly likely that young schoolchildren are not very likely to become seriously ill, but we have no idea what potential there is for children’s immune systems to suffer Long Covid, they do get ME  - that is not something I’d like to consider our government believe is worth taking the risk, but they are day after day (asking most parents if they think 1 in 50 is acceptable odds for their child? - https://www.nursinginpractice.com/clinical/respiratory/long-covid-uncommon-in-children/). Which is why children vaccinations will be on the way - despite warning articles like this: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/16/briefing/long-covid-afghanistan-haiti.html Which is where I get my 1/3 of cases figure from.

"While most people recover from mild to moderate Covid-19 in a few weeks, long Covid is a perplexing set of symptoms — brain fog, fatigue and muscle pain, to name a few — that can persist for weeks or months after the active infection has ended. And it doesn’t happen only to people who had serious illness; sometimes long Covid affects people who had mild illness or no symptoms at all. And while many viruses, like influenza, also can lead to long-term fatigue and other symptoms, long Covid appears to be more common, although more data is needed. Several studies suggest that 10 percent to 30 percent of adults who catch the virus may experience long Covid."

Both the recent CDC (USA) and Zoe (Oxford) studies put big question marks on how well vaccines 'prevent' Long Covid - but as i keep saying right now - no one has been double jabbed, then got Covid, then had months to develop Long Covid - most people are only 2-3 months into their second jabs.

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51 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

ooo get me I live in a hot-spot the BBC recommends you think twice before visiting me. Doesn't say I should think twice before attending a festival.

 

EDIT: Actually I shouldn't be so dismissive this contains :

"The "good news", Prof Adam Finn, of the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI), says, is the vaccines, having effectively taken the edge off the virus by giving our immune system a head start, are still working very well."

But as I say "taking the edge off" is not a full on cure - and for Melvin to be calling the Pandemic over is to seriously misjudge where we are, we are not there yet.

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1 hour ago, zahidf said:

( unless we want to wait to vax kids, but thats another minefield) and the NHS isnt looking like its going to be overwhelmed.

 

Interesting that the Torygraph floated this balloon today then:

"BRITAIN’S Health Department said it has not made any decision on Covid-19 vaccines for 12 to 15 year olds after the Telegraph reported the National Health Service (NHS) planned vaccinations from the first week children return to school in September."

https://www.easterneye.biz/uk-says-no-decision-yet-on-covid-19-vaccine-for-12-to-15-year-olds/

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