When will covid end ? Please be nice and respectful to others

[zahidf]

8 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

Better than I expected for sure, but not as good as some who were predicting we'd have hit the peak by now and would be seeing cases fall due to the vaccine effect. Numbers are still going up, so we're not over the hill yet. It's good that we haven't just ran straight up with explosive cases numbers to a peak (which is what I thought would happen, and was wrong) but the downside is we're not at the peak yet. Which is the point that we can all have some confidence it's over for good, and not just for now. 

Hopefully we've had the peak with the 50k or so a month ago! It's been broadly flat for the last month. Not perfect but I think better than expected, and as rhe vaccination effect is going ahead still (plus of course the antibodies from the infected) it would be strange it it went massively up to super worrying levels.

Fingers crossed for the autumn of course but a relatively normal late summer!

[steviewevie]

1 hour ago, DeanoL said:

Better than I expected for sure, but not as good as some who were predicting we'd have hit the peak by now and would be seeing cases fall due to the vaccine effect. Numbers are still going up, so we're not over the hill yet. It's good that we haven't just ran straight up with explosive cases numbers to a peak (which is what I thought would happen, and was wrong) but the downside is we're not at the peak yet. Which is the point that we can all have some confidence it's over for good, and not just for now. 

it's been very different to expected...you'd think when they released things on 19th and social distancing was scrapped numbers would rise significantly with this delta variant...but it seems that schools were one cause of the rapid rise prior to the 19th, and also the euros were possibly a factor, and when schools closed and the football stopped then the numbers quickly dropped back down again. They are rising now, but only slowly, almost plateaued really,  probably mostly down to the vaccinations and also that many are still being kind of careful. Just have to see what happens when schools and colleges go back, and now that we have full football stadiums and pubs...but as we get more and more vaccinated then you'd think there won't be an issue, especially when they start jabbing under 18s. Still think this pandemic has got a while to go globally, but looks like it's nearing it's end days here...although saying that cases/deaths are still about 100 times higher this summer than they were last summer, and still much higher than in Aus and Japan etc which are in panic mode, but with vaccines and delta maybe that's the best we can hope for...which is actually pretty bad still, so hopefully they can get deaths/hospitalisations down some more.

[Matt42]

Nearly 3 weeks ago I had my second jab and I must admit it does give you a huge sense of comfort. It shouldn’t be a surprise but since then I’ve been so relaxed and been in situations where COVID doesn’t even pass my mind. I would gather that a lot of people feel the same.

[Matt42]

On 8/15/2021 at 1:05 PM, Chapple12345 said:

I was thinking this the other day, unless you specifically look for it online or read/watch the news a lot I don't think many people would even notice the pandemic now, it's either you're in the covid sphere or not. Yes I know masks and vaccine passports/testing are in place but I'm just used to it now it becomes second nature. I might keep an eye on the odd thing but as a whole this is the most normal/least worried I've been in 18 months now 

I’m not going to lie I’m starting to find it a bit ridiculous wearing a mask. The social rules for this are in the washing machine. So I have to wear one in a shop / on transport otherwise il get weird looks. But you go in a pub where people are mingling with strangers and no one is wearing one.

It feels weirdly selective at the moment and bordering on stupid.

[Matt42]

15 hours ago, steviewevie said:

it's been very different to expected...you'd think when they released things on 19th and social distancing was scrapped numbers would rise significantly with this delta variant...but it seems that schools were one cause of the rapid rise prior to the 19th, and also the euros were possibly a factor, and when schools closed and the football stopped then the numbers quickly dropped back down again. They are rising now, but only slowly, almost plateaued really,  probably mostly down to the vaccinations and also that many are still being kind of careful. Just have to see what happens when schools and colleges go back, and now that we have full football stadiums and pubs...but as we get more and more vaccinated then you'd think there won't be an issue, especially when they start jabbing under 18s.

I was going to say do you think the weekly testing for school students plays a part in this? But I had to test this weekend going to a club so there is a broad range of people taking tests not just the kids.

I do just believe that as more people get vaccinated, less people are symptomatic and it’s becoming less of a prevalent thing amongst the population.

[mcshed]

16 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

I’m not going to lie I’m starting to find it a bit ridiculous wearing a mask. The social rules for this are in the washing machine. So I have to wear one in a shop / on transport otherwise il get weird looks. But you go in a pub where people are mingling with strangers and no one is wearing one.

It feels weirdly selective at the moment and bordering on stupid.

Up here in Scotland you don't have to wear a mask at a club if you are dancing but you do have to wear one to go to the bar or the toilet, I haven't been out yet but I assume everyone is ignoring this.

The thing is masks do reduce transmission and any reduction of transmission puts us in a better place, a rule that said only people whose names begin with a vowel have to wear masks would be more effective than nobody wearing them so I do see the reasoning behind these seemingly arbitrary rules I just don't think they chime with how we see the world. Giving public health advice that no-one follows isn't good for faith in public health advice.

 

[TalkShow Bob]

1 hour ago, mcshed said:

Up here in Scotland you don't have to wear a mask at a club if you are dancing but you do have to wear one to go to the bar or the toilet, I haven't been out yet but I assume everyone is ignoring this.

The thing is masks do reduce transmission and any reduction of transmission puts us in a better place, a rule that said only people whose names begin with a vowel have to wear masks would be more effective than nobody wearing them so I do see the reasoning behind these seemingly arbitrary rules I just don't think they chime with how we see the world. Giving public health advice that no-one follows isn't good for faith in public health advice.

 

Yeah, if you make the rules seem illogical I think people are less likely to follow them. 

I've been to a few places that have specifically put up signs saying what they want you to do with masks as a request, I wish more places would do that. I am double jabbed and still test regularly so am comfortable not wearing a mask (and TBH never had a whole lot of fatih in them in the first place) but still wear mind in a lot of places essentially out of politeness. 

[DeanoL]

2 hours ago, Matt42 said:

I’m not going to lie I’m starting to find it a bit ridiculous wearing a mask. The social rules for this are in the washing machine. So I have to wear one in a shop / on transport otherwise il get weird looks. But you go in a pub where people are mingling with strangers and no one is wearing one.

It feels weirdly selective at the moment and bordering on stupid.

While I don't for a second think we've reached it this way, there's actually a logic to that. Masks work best in conjunction with social distancing, which it's still viable to do in shops but not in pubs. 

[lost]

U.S moving from just the vulnerable to "most people" will need booster shots 8 months after their second dose:

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/16/us/politics/booster-shots.html

[Fuzzy Afro]

Australia have absolutely fucked it. Awful vaccine rollout and near universal absence of pre-existing immunity means delta is running amok even despite them being in lockdown. Their zero covid policy in absolute tatters.

 

 

New Zealand meanwhile have comically enacted such a strict lockdown that one of the venues forced to close is, er, vaccination centres 🤨

[Fuzzy Afro]

4 hours ago, Matt42 said:

I’m not going to lie I’m starting to find it a bit ridiculous wearing a mask. The social rules for this are in the washing machine. So I have to wear one in a shop / on transport otherwise il get weird looks. But you go in a pub where people are mingling with strangers and no one is wearing one.

It feels weirdly selective at the moment and bordering on stupid.

The sort of people who look at you funny in the shops/transport aren’t the people who are attending pubs 

[Matt42]

5 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

The sort of people who look at you funny in the shops/transport aren’t the people who are attending pubs 

Probably an element of truth. There does seem to be a huge divide now between the overly cautious and those who have just given up. Before I go somewhere now I try and judge what level of comfort that area is going to be.

When I was down south in the countryside it was like masks only existed in shops. Didn’t see people wearing them in any other context (not even a train).

[Chapple12345]

15 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

New Zealand meanwhile have comically enacted such a strict lockdown that one of the venues forced to close is, er, vaccination centres 🤨

You can't be serious?? That's absolutely mental, it's like letting lifeguards at a beach have a day off in the middle of summer. It's interesting how countries that have dealt with it all so well are starting snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, again why you shouldn't ever make international comparisons 

[Fuzzy Afro]

3 minutes ago, Chapple12345 said:

You can't be serious?? That's absolutely mental, it's like letting lifeguards at a beach have a day off in the middle of summer. It's interesting how countries that have dealt with it all so well are starting snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, again why you shouldn't ever make international comparisons 

Yep, absolutely wrong in the head to think that a full blown Wuhan-esque lockdown is more important than getting jabs in arms. Is Princess Jacinda a secret member of fake SAGE? 

[zahidf]

1 hour ago, lost said:

U.S moving from just the vulnerable to "most people" will need booster shots 8 months after their second dose:

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/16/us/politics/booster-shots.html

that because they have less people jabbed overall and need to protect the vaccinated fromthe dumbass anti vax GOP

[lost]

25 minutes ago, zahidf said:

that because they have less people jabbed overall and need to protect the vaccinated fromthe dumbass anti vax GOP

Guess we will see. I haven't come across the suggestion anywhere else that unvaccinated people make vaccinated people lose their antibodies at a faster pace.

Its worth keeping an eye on if we follow as it seemed to be confirmed at the weekend that if you are on a list for a booster in this country and you fail to get it you lose your vaccinated rights.

 

Edited August 17, 2021 by lost

[zahidf]

Singapore said that they are going to reopen soon regardless of the death rate. doesn't help vaccination have been available freely for months and theyve only got 10% of the vulnerable double jabbed. 

Edited August 17, 2021 by zahidf

[Ozanne]

Vaccination update:

[Matt42]

Aus / NZ gov are clearly drunk on power at this stage. Or they’ve realised their zero Covid strategy will result in more deaths because people’s first exposure to the virus will be the delta variant.

[Fuzzy Afro]

7 cases in NZ now

Edited August 18, 2021 by Fuzzy Afro

[Chapple12345]

17 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

7 cases in NZ now

I wonder if they'll now follow Australia's path with cases quickly rising 

[stuartbert two hats]

On 8/16/2021 at 4:17 PM, Ozanne said:

Vaccination update:

Looks like we probably will hit 90% by the end of the month after all.

[lost]

Austria seems to be going along with the thesis that antibodies last around 8 - 9 months after your second jab. I do wonder what these zero covid countries are going to do and if they will ever hit a critical mass of people with antibodies whilst their vaccine rollouts are so slow:

 

Quote

Austria has put an expiry date on arriving travellers’ vaccine certificates amid fears of waning immunity from the jabs.

The country won’t accept vaccine certificates from UK travellers who received their second doses more than 270 days (approximately 9 months) earlier, meaning that passes for the few who were fully vaccinated in January will expire in October. Those who were double jabbed by the end of April would have a valid pass until the end of January.

 

[eFestivals]

a dose of hard reality!

covid won't end its now endemic. 

[DeanoL]

21 hours ago, Chapple12345 said:

You can't be serious?? That's absolutely mental, it's like letting lifeguards at a beach have a day off in the middle of summer. It's interesting how countries that have dealt with it all so well are starting snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, again why you shouldn't ever make international comparisons 

Not really - the NZ approach has always been sharp, harsh lockdowns when any cases are detected to ensure they don't spread. Those lockdowns only last a week or two. Delaying the vax programme for a couple of weeks is certainly a better option that risking Delta spreading through the population - as once it gets out, as we've shown with all our attempts at lockdown, there's no getting back to zero COVID.

Also worth noting that when NZ talk about level 4 lockdown, it means everything is shut except grocery stores and hospitals. No "you can still get takeout", no "you can go into the office if it's essential" - and it's worked in preventing cases from snowballing so far.