news & politics:discussion

[mattiloy]

6 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

Blair would of possibly won that election Brown lost as Cameron would of struggled to out Blair, Blair.

What is this bizarre selective amnesia amongst Blairites?

He was deeply unpopular when he resigned.

See polling with big line added at blair resignation.

 

Edited March 23, 2021 by mattiloy

[mattiloy]

5 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

There lots of analysis of what a Blair vs Cameron fight would of looked like.  Most analysis usually falls on a narrow Blair win at worse.  But lefties aren't going to take that so no point arguing facts 🙂 

 

’Analysis’ is only as good and as objective as the analyst. Guardian columns don’t count.

The reality is it is impossible to know the counterfactual but again I think you’re looking at it with rose tinted spectacles if you think he would have won in 2010.

[mattiloy]

1 minute ago, Barry Fish said:

Nice edit to prove yourself wrong 🙂 

We had elections in 2001 and 2005 - Blair wins.

Look at his ratings on the run up to 2005 and the bounce as we had the elections.

The 2010 election (would of probably been 2008 - maybe)  we would of had a lower starting point than 2005 but he also had a 66 seat majority as a starting point.
 

The magnitude of the 2005 bounce was half the size of the 2001 and brought him to  still a negative figure in an election in which labours majority was cut from 167 to 66. If this trend carries on to 2010 and do you a) get a majority b) not get a majority?

That backfired a bit didnt it?

[mattiloy]

1 minute ago, Barry Fish said:

Brown lost them to Clegg as well - who was doing an even better job of copying Blair.

If you drop Blair into the same election - I just don't see how both Clegg and Cameron would of out Blair, Blair.  

I don't think you are remembering history quite like it was in reality.  Brown was a disaster for Labour - a total disaster.

You mean scrap trident, scrap tuition fees, dont opt for austerity, abolish the lords Clegg?

Yeah talk about out-Blairing Blair..

Clegg ran on a policy platform well to the left of new labour. Thats why he was so popular, particularly amongst the young.

I don’t think you experience reality as it is. Your history is the Blairite revised edition as vomited out by Guardian columnists for the last decade.

Brown was anointed by Blair. Brown was continuity Blair, the only candidate on the ballot in the leadership election - a Blair decision. 

[topmarksbri]

4 minutes ago, mattiloy said:

Brown was continuity Blair

Yeah, it's why they famously got on so well over the years. 

[mattiloy]

10 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

Yikes how utterly wrong.

Out Blaring, Blair isn't just about policy, its about style and how you operate.  Clegg, Cameron and Blair are all the same in that regards.  You can't add Brown to that mix at all.  

Clegg took the young and the tradition Labour left (obviously not all of them) from Brown,  Cameron took Middle England.  Leaving Brown with the Red Wall mostly.  This isn't opinion - it the reality of what happened in the numbers.

As for Blair anointing Brown - well - you need to give your head a wobble.  Deals made in the early 90s and the opinions expressed ever since tells that story.  The concept Blair thought Brown would ever be successful are just false.  He said if he had stuck to the New Labour mantra he had a chance - but he knew privately he wouldn't (said publicly since) and he didn't and he lost.  

its just false to say Brown was continuity Blair.  He rejected new labour thinking almost immediately. 

Blair clearly regrets not hanging on to fight that election.  

 

So it was Cleggs style rather than his policies that won the left and the young okay then. I guess that explains why he did so well in 2015..

I’ve ran out of energy for this tedious argument. Besides, I don’t need your perspective, I’ve been reading it from blairite commentators for years and its pure dogshit.

Ciao

Edited March 23, 2021 by mattiloy

[eFestivals]

33 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

 Brown was a disaster for Labour - a total disaster.

It's odd how Brown's born to rule was a big turn off but it wasn't with Spaffer.

[steviewevie]

The problem for Brown (and labour) was the 2008 banking crash and recession that came after...even though he "saved the world". The tories kind of made it the fault of labour spending on benefits.

Another problem was that he wasn't very easy on the eye.

Edited March 23, 2021 by steviewevie

[mattiloy]

57 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

You mean after Clegg had been exposed as a liar and the backer and supporter of Tory policy lol

It's probably best you do leave before you embarrass yourself further.

Yes exactly. That is what i mean - which wouldnt matter a jot if voters prioritised style over substance.

I am embarrassed that I’ve carried on debating for so long somebody with such an obvious impediment in critical thinking.

[DeanoL]

3 hours ago, eFestivals said:

Why should people have got behind corbyn.its for him to be attractive enough to get supported

Same applies to Starmer though.

It's only the most ardent Corbynites that were never willing to give him a chance. Most were, to the point of, y'know, electing him head of the party. 

So far he's not been convincing at all. But ultimately it'll come down to the manifesto.

[Ozanne]

 

 

[steviewevie]

6 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

 

 

[steviewevie]

 

[Ryan1984]

10 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

 

I think that’s Boris telling his audience what they want to hear. If they give viewpoints, it’s going to upset one group!

[efcfanwirral]

 

4 hours ago, Barry Fish said:

After Corbyn I was glad to see Starmer take over but I don't think he is having a good pandemic.  With all the Tory failures he has neither stroke a big blow on them or offered an alternative picture I would like to see.

I guess he can't win at the moment - like you say it will come down to the manifesto in a few years time if he survives that long.

This is where I am with it too - he would get ripped apart in future if he comes out with concrete promises and policies now, then finds the pandemic lasts a lot longer for whatever reason and we have a wasteland of a economy, or even if he promises things based on life now then things bounce back hugely. You can only imagine whoever is against him at the debates throwing those things back at him

But then as you say he might not last that long precisely for not being able to see the future. 

[Ozanne]

 

[CaledonianGonzo]

8 hours ago, Barry Fish said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/03/23/wanted-police-issue-images-people-suspected-involvement-bristol/

Its like a who's who of efestival forum members 🙂 Anyone recognise anyone 😛 

Are you the one in the riot gear?

[steviewevie]

1 hour ago, Ozanne said:

 

they'll do this over and over again...london/islington lawyer, metropolitan elite...out of touch with "real" people like Boris Johnson.

[Ozanne]

1 minute ago, steviewevie said:

they'll do this over and over again...london/islington lawyer, metropolitan elite...out of touch with "real" people like Boris Johnson.

It’s incredible how people buy this crap. 

[Zoo Music Girl]

30 minutes ago, CaledonianGonzo said:

Are you the one in the riot gear?

Someone please upvote this! I'm out.

[mattiloy]

[mcshed]

Estimates put about 10% of global trade passing through the Suez canal. It is currently blocked and could be for days. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-56505413

[maelzoid]

A few pages back, someone asked what the big issue would be post-Brexit and post-Covid.

Well, it looks like the Tories are already rolling out 'immigrants' again - straight from the Nazi playbook. Between this and Farage's beach invasion shtick, it looks like middle-England have the champions they need to keep them safe.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-56500680

[eFestivals]

1 minute ago, maelzoid said:

A few pages back, someone asked what the big issue would be post-Brexit and post-Covid.

Well, it looks like the Tories are already rolling out 'immigrants' again - straight from the Nazi playbook. Between this and Farage's beach invasion shtick, it looks like middle-England have the champions they need to keep them safe.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-56500680

There's an idea that EU citizens and other immigrants get access to services to the detriment of Brits.

[steviewevie]

5 minutes ago, maelzoid said:

A few pages back, someone asked what the big issue would be post-Brexit and post-Covid.

Well, it looks like the Tories are already rolling out 'immigrants' again - straight from the Nazi playbook. Between this and Farage's beach invasion shtick, it looks like middle-England have the champions they need to keep them safe.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-56500680

It's not just middle-england that likes this stuff...red wall areas too which are part of the new tory coalition.

So, it will all be culture/value stuff...immigration, EU, crime, protests, statues. Labour will want to make it about the economy, but tories will keep stoking the culture war anger as they seem to benefit most. Grim.