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2 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

If the best the Labour Party can hope for is 2017 which they got against a prime minister on the way out...that isn't a win. They ain't reaching those “heights” with Starmer anyway.

They are up against someone extremely populist compared to Theresa may... It's a different ball game. 

Didn't say anything about what you just said. I said in 2017 the tories didn't go up in the polls during the election campaign. Thats literally all I said, no idea why you replied with that.

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1 minute ago, Matt42 said:

Definitely can. In fact I could probably point to some seats they are provably bound to lose by the next election. 

yeah, I think they can too...that's the way things have been heading....but a lot of those red wall seats were close, and if things continue to go pear shaped and people feel their lives are not improving, infact they're getting worse, then could easily switch back. Labour has to somehow win back the red wall, make inroads in tory areas, and somehow win back seats in Scotland. I don't even think Jesus could manage that.

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4 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

Yeah but by the same token, you can also point to ones the Tories will lose. The Brexit/ culture wars stuff goes both ways. You can't seriously tell me you expect Labour to get under 200 seats in 2024?  

I'm predicting about 180-190 odd seats.

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2 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Recent polling in red wall seats suggest Labour are set to win back 19 of them and are also making gains in some Tory heartland seats. Labour suffered electoral failure in 2019, they look in course to improve on that at least slightly. 

In what way is the current labour offering winning back any of the red wall? Poll these people in the lead up to the election... Not now.

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4 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

If the best the Labour Party can hope for is 2017 which they got against a prime minister on the way out...that isn't a win. They ain't reaching those “heights” with Starmer anyway.

They are up against someone extremely populist compared to Theresa may... It's a different ball game. 

May was pretty bloody popular when she called that election, and they were expecting a landslide. But, she was useless at campaigning, whereas Corbyn did a good job and there was a lot of enthusiasm amongst labour members. Plus, labour avoided the brexit question, and May dared to suggest that we could pay for social care with a tax which labour labelled dementia tax and then she did a messy uturn and declared nothing has changed. That last one annoyed me, because social care does need sorting out!

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3 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Recent polling in red wall seats suggest Labour are set to win back 19 of them and are also making gains in some Tory heartland seats. Labour suffered electoral failure in 2019, they look in course to improve on that at least slightly. 

I wouldn't get your hopes up too much with current polling (or feel too downbeat), election still a long way away.

Actually, saying that it could be next year!

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1 minute ago, steviewevie said:

I wouldn't get your hopes up too much with current polling (or feel too downbeat), election still a long way away.

Actually, saying that it could be next year!

I’m just saying what a polling company has recently said, it’s not many and it’ll still lead to a Tory government but there is evidence some of the red wall seats are going back to Labour. 

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1 minute ago, steviewevie said:

like California going republican and Bailey winning london mayor?

I should imagine this is much less radical than that. 191 was what the exit poll said in 2019 for Labour and i’d argue that Starmer is less popular than Corbyn (mainly because Johnson has hoovered up a huge portion of disenchanted labour votes).

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1 minute ago, Matt42 said:

The sort that deliberately voted in the party with a completely different approach to this?

They like Johnson, he's a good old blokey bloke who fucks around etc. They like brexit. And they like the idea of levelling up. But, Johnson's schtick might start to wear thin, brexit will be either not be in the news, or there will be bad shit going on because of brexit...and levelling up may not be as good as promised.

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9 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

It's a two party system and that isn't changing. Of course Labour will be back in power again. They just aren't doing a very good job of making it happen as soon as they should. People are so OTT with this stuff all the time.  

In Scotland sadly slot of people vote on one issue, whether they are pro-independence or unionist. Tories are doing a good job of positioning themselves ahead of Labour as the party to place your vote for if you're a unionist. Unless something drastic changes I'm pretty certain Tories will pick up more seats than Labour in Scotland

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1 minute ago, Matt42 said:

I should imagine this is much less radical than that. 191 was what the exit poll said in 2019 for Labour and i’d argue that Starmer is less popular than Corbyn (mainly because Johnson has hoovered up a huge portion of disenchanted labour votes).

OK, well... we'll see. I'm actually expecting labour to do a bit better than 2019, but not enough for starmer to remain leader.

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2 minutes ago, found home in 2009 said:

In Scotland sadly slot of people vote on one issue, whether they are pro-independence or unionist. Tories are doing a good job of positioning themselves ahead of Labour as the party to place your vote for if you're a unionist. Unless something drastic changes I'm pretty certain Tories will pick up more seats than Labour in Scotland

yeah, bit annoying that. Just go Scotland.

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Just now, steviewevie said:

They like Johnson, he's a good old blokey bloke who fucks around etc. They like brexit. And they like the idea of levelling up. But, Johnson's schtick might start to wear thin, brexit will be either not be in the news, or there will be bad shit going on because of brexit...and levelling up may not be as good as promised.

Moving on from Johnson requires an aspect of accepting electing him in 2019 was wrong, which I don't think any of the Brexiteers will be doing any time soon.

Either way it all means nothing until an election is coming, and we always forget the media force behind the tories when an election looms. The anti-starmer pro Johnson election cycle will rescue the tories from any unpopularity brewing at the moment.

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Just because an election is some time off doesn’t mean it means nothing. If polling consistently showed the Tories behind Labour where there is a risk Tories would lose their seats then they would get rid of Johnson and get someone else in. If anything the biggest threat to Johnson is his own party. It isn’t necessarily all about an election. 

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2 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

OK, well... we'll see. I'm actually expecting labour to do a bit better than 2019, but not enough for starmer to remain leader.

Well I just can't see how the current situation will have any positive reaction for the Labour party at all right now. They have been kicked out of Scotland, they are losing their grip on wales to Welsh nationalist parties, they are losing the red wall and the north is gradually shifting more right wing (outside of major cities). Starmer is causing the young to shift to the greens and the LGBT / progressive wing of Labour feel like they are being kicked out of the party right now. Who the fuck is Labour for now? Because I can tell you who the tories are for… and I can even tell you who the SNP / PC / Green Party are for. The working classes are more right wing than ever and the young socialists are more socialist than ever. Labour’s failure at the “please everyone” approach is just causing people to flock to other parties.

What will be Labour’s undoing is not just the tories getting more seats, but Lib Dem, PC, SNP and maybe even Green Party getting more seats.

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5 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Just because an election is some time off doesn’t mean it means nothing. If polling consistently showed the Tories behind Labour where there is a risk Tories would lose their seats then they would get rid of Johnson and get someone else in. If anything the biggest threat to Johnson is his own party. It isn’t necessarily all about an election. 

Even if Labour regained 19 more seats they are still losing by a gigantic margin to Johnson. You’re falling into this contemporary Labour dialogue of seeing losing by 100 points instead of 130 points as a victory.

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1 minute ago, Matt42 said:

Even if Labour regained 19 more seats they are still losing by a gigantic margin to Johnson. You’re falling into this contemporary Labour dialogue of seeing losing by 100 points instead of 130 points as a victory.

But you said an election result worse than 2019, that isn’t the case in this scenario. I’ve even said that the Tories will still form a government in this case, which is the opposite of claiming a victory. 

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1 minute ago, Ozanne said:

But you said an election result worse than 2019, that isn’t the case in this scenario. I’ve even said that the Tories will still form a government in this case, which is the opposite of claiming a victory. 

Well what are you claiming then? That this is a good thing? Is this just the future of Labour working hard to not lose ‘as bad’ for generations to come. Because it really feels like their voters are happy with that.

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2 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

Well what are you claiming then? That this is a good thing? Is this just the future of Labour working hard to not lose ‘as bad’ for generations to come. Because it really feels like their voters are happy with that.

I’m saying it’s progress. After the scale of defeat in 2019 it’ll take time but it’s definitely progress.

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