news & politics:discussion

[steviewevie]

10 minutes ago, mattiloy said:

Yeah. It could work, because of the concentration of those most likely to be offended by these policies in labour strongholds.

For the remainder, a credible compromise position based on tighter, but humane immigration rules could be doable. Say matching tighter immigration with a large increase in spending on foreign aid, targetted specifically at places Where infrastructure had been devastated by whatever humanitarian crisis.

I also think that will be the future internationally. Its not on to watch them drown in the sea or put them in camps so the EU has said that it will focus on incentivising returns with ’resettlement payments’, but of course, who would take it if your former town was rubble, but that accompanied with large scale NGO rebuilding intervention, rather than military - I think Thats Where policy will go towards in the future. And there is an issue, after a war or whatever, there is usually destruction of all the infrastructure but worse, massive brain drain as people flee to the west - when they don’t go back, the country’s problems run on and on- see post revolution Iran. So there are policies and framing of those policies that I think are marketable to both sides, and I think that will be the future of immigration policy (which will only become more weighty in politics as the earth heats up and conflict arises over scarce resources)

this is the blue labour thing that some were calling for...left on economics...right on social/cultural stuff...win back those red wall seats.

Thing is, labour can take for granted labour strongholds in cities that have more younger, more progressive voters...but they were accused of doing the same in those red wall seats too, and lost them. Just need an alternative...lib dems or more likely green and that will start to hurt labour in cities.

I also think mass migration is going to become more of a problem with climate change.

[steviewevie]

2 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

The Scottish election is the most fascinating one for me, the implications are pretty huge. 

They want SNP but they don't want independence anytime soon.

I mean...fucking duh.

[eFestivals]

1 hour ago, DeanoL said:

Which meant all the profits from that stuff went to private companies instead of the country leaving us in greater debt.

I wasn't suggesting it was ideal just pointing out that it allowed Blair to do stuff which wouldn't have been done otherwise.

[eFestivals]

33 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

They want SNP but they don't want independence anytime soon.

I mean...fucking duh.

The SNP know that Scots don't want the consequences of Indy which is why the SNP lie about the consequences.

[Mimo]

I don't know any Scots to ask, but how much of the reasoning behind the push for independence stems from wanting to be free of the Tories for good?

 

[mcshed]

20 minutes ago, Mimo said:

I don't know any Scots to ask, but how much of the reasoning behind the push for independence stems from wanting to be free of the Tories for good?

 

I'm Scottish but not a supporter of independence so maybe not the best person to ask but my impression is that getting rid of the Tories is a key motivator for the pro-Indy movement. Ignoring the fact that even if it isn't the Scottish Conservatives an Independent Scotland will have a mainstream centre right party of some sort. 

During the 2014 Referendum I actually thought that it would be the SNP who morphed into this party as one of the few policy ideas they were putting forward for Indy Scotland was corporate tax cuts to join Ireland in a race to the bottom for the sake of a handful of extra jobs. The growth in their membership over that campaign and beyond is more to the left so I don't know if it would wash any more although there are plenty high-ups in the SNP who would be absolutely fine with it. Alba are certainly take the right's side on all the culture war stuff they can come across but thankfully Salmond's reputation is in the mud so hopefully that ship will just sink.

Whatever happens if Scotland does become independent it will have a centre right party and I'd be surprised if they were kept out of government for that long. Independence is a heavy price to pay for ensuring that when the arseholes do get into power they aren't arseholes who went to Eton.

Edited May 4, 2021 by mcshed

[Mimo]

8 minutes ago, mcshed said:

I'm Scottish but not a supporter of independence so maybe not the best person to ask but my impression is that getting rid of the Tories is a key motivator for the pro-Indy movement. Ignoring the fact that even if it isn't the Scottish Conservatives an Independent Scotland will have a mainstream centre right party of some sort. 

During the 2014 Referendum I actually thought that it would be the SNP who morphed into this party as one of the few policy ideas they were putting forward for Indy Scotland was corporate tax cuts to join Ireland in a race to the bottom for the sake of a handful of extra jobs. The growth in their membership over that campaign and beyond is more to the left so I don't know if it would wash any more although there are plenty high-ups in the SNP who would be absolutely fine with it. Alba are certainly take the right's side on all the culture war stuff they can come across but thankfully Salmond's reputation is in the mud so hopefully that ship will just sink.

Whatever happens if Scotland does become independent it will have a centre right party and I'd be surprised if they were kept out of government for that long. Independence is a heavy price to pay for ensuring that when the arseholes do get into power they aren't arseholes who went to Eton.

Ah thanks that’s really interesting. I guess I’d kinda assume that because Labour had so many seats in the Blair days the country leant centre-leftwards.

Extension of my question I guess, if there is another referendum and the independence side lose what might become of the SNP? Would people keep voting for them, or might tories/labour expect to do better in future?
 

 

[eFestivals]

2 hours ago, steviewevie said:

and it also means the main motive is profit...which often means making cuts to staff/salary/rights etc etc.

Pfi was for the money to build and upgrade hospitals and not about hospital operation.. So no cuts involved at the front end just maybe required to meet the Pfi repayments. 

[mcshed]

14 minutes ago, Mimo said:

Ah thanks that’s really interesting. I guess I’d kinda assume that because Labour had so many seats in the Blair days the country leant centre-leftwards.

There certainly is a current lean to the centre-left but it isn't as large as stable as some seem to make out. Fuck the Tories goes down well but once the right aren't the Tories some of that support is purely tribal. Salmond was the oil man for a bank, Blackford despite self styling himself as a crofter made his money as an investment banker in London. Nationalists aren't tied to any ideology other than nationalism.

[mcshed]

20 minutes ago, Mimo said:

Extension of my question I guess, if there is another referendum and the independence side lose what might become of the SNP? Would people keep voting for them, or might tories/labour expect to do better in future?

I think if they lost another referendum it'd lose the SNP Holyrood for at least a time, without independence their record in government would come under greater scrutiny and it's been pretty appalling. The quasi-PR system makes majorities rare so you'd be looking at who can work with whom on a closer split of the vote.

[Mimo]

@mcshed thanks, again that's really interesting. Looking dispassionately at everything going on in UK politics the next few years should be fascinating.

[steviewevie]

1 hour ago, mcshed said:

I'm Scottish but not a supporter of independence so maybe not the best person to ask but my impression is that getting rid of the Tories is a key motivator for the pro-Indy movement. Ignoring the fact that even if it isn't the Scottish Conservatives an Independent Scotland will have a mainstream centre right party of some sort. 

During the 2014 Referendum I actually thought that it would be the SNP who morphed into this party as one of the few policy ideas they were putting forward for Indy Scotland was corporate tax cuts to join Ireland in a race to the bottom for the sake of a handful of extra jobs. The growth in their membership over that campaign and beyond is more to the left so I don't know if it would wash any more although there are plenty high-ups in the SNP who would be absolutely fine with it. Alba are certainly take the right's side on all the culture war stuff they can come across but thankfully Salmond's reputation is in the mud so hopefully that ship will just sink.

Whatever happens if Scotland does become independent it will have a centre right party and I'd be surprised if they were kept out of government for that long. Independence is a heavy price to pay for ensuring that when the arseholes do get into power they aren't arseholes who went to Eton.

I'm guessing that labour will be offering more devolution for Scotland (and Wales/NI) in the next general election...how do you feel about that...a winning policy?

[Ryan1984]

 

[DeanoL]

1 hour ago, eFestivals said:

I wasn't suggesting it was ideal just pointing out that it allowed Blair to do stuff which wouldn't have been done otherwise.

But if Blair had straight up borrowed instead of doing the PFI thing, would that have seen him being significantly less popular? Genuinely not sure. Because it wasn't just a choice between higher taxes or PFI. Borrowing was another option (PFI was basically borrowing from private industry anyway).

[mcshed]

20 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

I'm guessing that labour will be offering more devolution for Scotland (and Wales/NI) in the next general election...how do you feel about that...a winning policy?

The problem with more devolution for Scotland is there isn't a clear purpose to it other than seeing if it will placate nationalists, there isn't a clear policy that Scottish Labour or the SNP want to do that is popular with the electorate and that can't be done now but would be able under devo-Max. If Labour are to offer more devolution it has to be for a purpose, if this purpose can be linked to devolution to the other nations and to English regions to make a coherent collective argument about the localisation of powers then even better but as a stand alone idea more devolution doesn't cut it I don't think.

[steviewevie]

Anyway...back to Hartlepool and Starmer etc...labour could be shouting about sending all migrants back to where they came from, declare blm a terrorist group, put churchill statues in every town and make the bbc play the national anthem every day and still people would just be more interested in when boris says that we can go on holiday, hug granny, go to the pub, watch the footy etc..

[squirrelarmy]

1 hour ago, Ryan1984 said:

 

Explains why he has so many kids. He can use them as pawns to get money for Tory donations. 

[eFestivals]

5 hours ago, DeanoL said:

But if Blair had straight up borrowed instead of doing the PFI thing, would that have seen him being significantly less popular? Genuinely not sure. Because it wasn't just a choice between higher taxes or PFI. Borrowing was another option (PFI was basically borrowing from private industry anyway).

There were other things in the mix such as eu borrowing limits normal govt borrowing wasnt an option. The trickery of Pfi wasn't done without good reason or necessity. 

Remember that the next time you're slagging off the govt for Brexit the EU came with rules to be lived up to. 

[Suprefan]

Its a literal circus in california with one of the candidates in the recall election having a press conference with a bear.

 

 

[steviewevie]

Labour set for huge election defeat in Hartlepool, internal polling suggests

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/may/04/internal-polling-suggests-labour-heading-for-defeat-in-hartlepool-byelection

[steviewevie]

Kind of impressive that Europe and brexit was the thing that divided the tory party, but now it has strengthened them and is killing labour.

[steviewevie]

Labour are fucked. Might give up and just vote tory like everyone else. 

[mattiloy]

22 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Labour set for huge election defeat in Hartlepool, internal polling suggests

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/may/04/internal-polling-suggests-labour-heading-for-defeat-in-hartlepool-byelection

Wow.

Almost enough to make me even feel sorry for Starmer and Paul Williams...then I remember they’re traitorous cowards who deserve all they get

[Ozanne]

59 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Labour are fucked. Might give up and just vote tory like everyone else. 

Not necessarily in the longer term. This is what I mean when I have been going on about how important it is to get the Tories to get rid of Johnson. He’s a winner and will continue on doing well in areas that Tories don’t tend to. So that’s why all these sleaze stories are important, the more that come out the more the chance there is of a leadership challenge. It looks pretty bleak but I see slight glimmers of hope with the recent polling data at the national level.

I think Starmer needs to amend his approach slightly now and start to offer more alternatives through policy ideas. If I were him I would have 2 or 3 headline areas to say this is what a Labour government would do for example PR/voting reform and hammer it home  

I do see a way for there to be a Labour government of some kind in 2024 especially as this government will keep on cocking up.

[eFestivals]

4 hours ago, steviewevie said:

Labour are fucked. Might give up and just vote tory like everyone else. 

Probably would have helped if you'd not spent the last year attacking a Labour party which was attempting to realign itself with the electorate.