news & politics:discussion

[steviewevie]

21 minutes ago, lost said:

New statesman too I would of thought they were pretty much Starmer territory:

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/westminster/2022/05/leader-keir-starmer-is-under-pressure

 

Lots in NS about Starmer at moment...

https://www.newstatesman.com/comment/2022/05/there-is-no-case-for-keir-starmer-resignation

[steviewevie]

I think most on left/labour think Starmer should and will get off...and that it's all very well doing the integrity thing, but it isn't enough if he wants to be next PM, labour needs policies, or even just a vision, that appeals to voters.

[steviewevie]

Problem for labour is they don't know when Johnson will call an election...it could be this autumn, or it could be in 2025.

[steviewevie]

and they don't pick berries.

[lost]

As I said seems unfair from Mandelson. New Labour got to pretty much follow Ken Clarks budgeting until the planes hit the twin towers. Starmer would be coming in after a level of spending equivalent to a world war after covid and now central banks realising they have overdone it and are rushing to stuck money back out of the economy probably pushing us into recession.

As we found out with Corbyn the electorate is bit more sophisticated than believing the everyone can have anything they want for free line, people are probably going to smell a rat if he comes in with grand unfunded promises.

Edited May 11, 2022 by lost

[steviewevie]

5 minutes ago, lost said:

As I said seems unfair from Mandelson. New Labour got to pretty much follow Ken Clarks budgeting until the planes hit the twin towers. Starmer would be coming in after a level of spending equivalent to a world war after covid and now central banks realising they have overdone it and are rushing to stuck money back out of the economy probably pushing us into recession.

As we found out with Corbyn the electorate is bit more sophisticated than believing the everyone can have anything they want for free line, people are probably going to smell a rat if he comes in with grand unfunded promises.

spending wasn't the problem...it was global demand/supply mismatches when countries came out of lockdown.

[lost]

3 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

spending wasn't the problem...it was global demand/supply mismatches when countries came out of lockdown.

Yes demand was up as well as supply down. Demand driven by money printing. You only have to look at house prices to see the inflation is not just in things that Russia/Ukraine pulls out of the ground or China makes.

Edited May 11, 2022 by lost

[steviewevie]

4 minutes ago, lost said:

Yes demand was up as well as supply down. Demand driven by money printing. You only have to look at house prices to see the inflation is not just in things that Russia/Ukraine pulls out of the ground or China makes.

Demand driven by people coming out of lockdown...I mean I guess if everyone had lost their jobs instead of furlough then maybe inflation wouldn't be the worst problem here.

But, anyway, it's global too...energy and food prices...again driven by the same demand/supply thing...So, yes, the pandemic is the one reason, but I don't think governments can be blamed on spending big to save economies and jobs.

[lost]

8 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Demand driven by people coming out of lockdown...I mean I guess if everyone had lost their jobs instead of furlough then maybe inflation wouldn't be the worst problem here.

But, anyway, it's global too...energy and food prices...again driven by the same demand/supply thing...So, yes, the pandemic is the one reason, but I don't think governments can be blamed on spending big to save economies and jobs.

Yes everyone did the same thing. The US printed $7 trillion, 20 per cent of all US dollars were created in 2020. Thats more money chasing the same or less amount of goods (the definition of inflation) Its not about blame either as I said they have decided they over did it obviously because now there seems to be a scramble to pull it back out.

The issue is that monetary policy is a blunt tool so the people that got the covid money and the ones now facing higher prices and potentially losing their jobs if we go into recession are not the same people. It doesn't even itself out.

Edited May 11, 2022 by lost

[steviewevie]

8 minutes ago, lost said:

Yes everyone did the same thing. The US printed $7 trillion, 20 per cent of all US dollars were created in 2020. Thats more money chasing the same or less amount of goods (the definition of inflation) Its not about blame either as I said they have decided they over did it obviously because now there seems to be a scramble to pull it back out.

The issue is that monetary policy is a blunt tool so the people that got the covid money and the ones now facing higher prices and potentially losing their jobs if we go into recession are not the same people. It doesn't even itself out.

Yeah..ok. You obviously know more than me about this economics stuff.

[steviewevie]

But didn't they initially think this inflation would be short lived...but now because of Ukraine and maybe some other stuff it's going to carry on for a while...?

[lost]

14 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

But didn't they initially think this inflation would be short lived...but now because of Ukraine and maybe some other stuff it's going to carry on for a while...?

Yes they said transitory. I guess its for everyone to decide if they would tell the truth if they fucked up or we'd just get a mass of excuses over the last few months. As I said from the data I've seen its clearly demand driven as well as supply side.

Thing is if its purely supply side then raising interest rates wouldn't make much sense? fed comments yesterday were we will not repeat the mistakes of the 1970's

Edited May 11, 2022 by lost

[steviewevie]

Carbon bombs

 

[Neil]

5 hours ago, mattiloy said:

the party has driven out all its members and activists

they've walked off in a strop, like a tantruming kid.

 

and its time they started to own what they've chosen to do.

Edited May 11, 2022 by Neil

[Ozanne]

 

[steviewevie]

21 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

 

that thread is amazing..Wagner, Guido and Cummings...

[mattiloy]

3 hours ago, steviewevie said:

The Dark Prince:

https://inews.co.uk/opinion/it-is-possible-to-imagine-keir-starmer-in-no-10-but-the-labour-party-now-faces-a-choice-1617778

Haha. I told ya! The mandy streeting axis of evil sweeps in!

 

Re: inflation - contrary to what lost says increase in money supply does not equal increase in inflation but it is a factor.

If it weren’t for the covid supply shocks inflation would still be very low.

However the ukraine war and china’s latest covid outbreak have augmented the time horizon of the supply shocks. Climate breakdown doesn’t help either. But even given all this, it isn’t a question of when will russian, ukrainian and chinese production of oil, food and manufactured goods respectively, return to normal, but rather when will the effect of the market doing what it does and finding substitutes, kick in. So it ought to be temporary. That said, since 2020 between pandemics, climate and war (which is likely to become more common as the scrap for resources in the ’global south’) it seems to me like instability is the new normal and more supply shocks can’t be ruled out.

The good news?

The last time we had stagflation as well as riots and so on it also produced some excellent music. So we can look forward to 21st century versions of bands like the Clash, the Smiths, the specials.. 

[steviewevie]

7 minutes ago, mattiloy said:

The last time we had stagflation as well as riots and so on it also produced some excellent music. So we can look forward to 21st century versions of bands like the Clash, the Smiths, the specials.. 

ok...hold on...so when exactly did we have this stagflation?...I mean Clash was 77-79...Specials 79-81...and Smiths 83-85...I agree it was a great time for music though...apart from all the shite...

[mattiloy]

23 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

ok...hold on...so when exactly did we have this stagflation?...I mean Clash was 77-79...Specials 79-81...and Smiths 83-85...I agree it was a great time for music though...apart from all the shite...

Yeah basically that whole period

 

[lost]

The 70's hence the central bank comments about not repeating the mistakes. It wasn't just the oil shock from the Yom Kippur war rather government stimulus/money printing too.

Once out of control only the Thatcher/Reagan Monetarist period brought it back to normal levels and well what happened in the 70's was burned into the nations psyche enough for them to stick with Thatcher for the whole decade despite everything else she did.

Edited May 11, 2022 by lost

[steviewevie]

5 minutes ago, mattiloy said:

Yeah basically that whole period

 

Thing is...I was alive when all that was going on...so I win.

[squirrelarmy]

2 hours ago, Neil said:

they've walked off in a strop, like a tantruming kid.

 

and its time they started to own what they've chosen to do.

They’re not happy unless they’re rebelling about something.

[Ozanne]

In all the fuss about Gove earlier and Sweden it Lew under the radar that the Tories broke another manifesto promise by admitting they won't be building 300k homes in this Parliament.

[steviewevie]

Just now, Ozanne said:

In all the fuss about Gove earlier and Sweden it Lew under the radar that the Tories broke another manifesto promise by admitting they won't be building 300k homes in this Parliament.

Nimbies.

[steviewevie]

1 hour ago, lost said:

The 70's hence the central bank comments about not repeating the mistakes. It wasn't just the oil shock from the Yom Kippur war rather government stimulus/money printing too.

Once out of control only the Thatcher/Reagan Monetarist period brought it back to normal levels and well what happened in the 70's was burned into the nations psyche enough for them to stick with Thatcher for the whole decade despite everything else she did.

ok...I am very much on board for a Lost vs Mattiloy argument about all this because...well...I'm not very well informed but I do find this stuff pretty interesting these days.

Maybe monetarist policies did steady global markets etc in the 80s, but at what cost?...especially in UK with unemployment and civil unrest etc. Maybe this is why Clinton/Blair did the 3rd way centrist thing...stick to monetarist policies...trust the market etc...but spend more on health/education/welfare etc? Or is that social democracy?

Edited May 11, 2022 by steviewevie