news & politics:discussion

[DeanoL]

The boundary changes come from before all the changes in population and demographics from COVID and the whole WFH thing. As the middle-class Labour voters start moving en masse out of the cities and into the surrounding countryside I think we're in for some big changes next election.

No idea how it'll shake out but any projection based on the location of the population in 2019 really won't tell us much.

[eFestivals]

47 minutes ago, hfuhruhurr said:

Scary - we're a lonely red blob in a sea of blue. But even more scary, Bristol has got its knob out.

I looks like I'll be in the new Bristol North East constituency.... And there goes the greens best chance of a second seat by breaking up Bristol West. 

Edited June 10, 2021 by eFestivals

[maelzoid]

The number of people moving due to COVID and/or WFH is minuscule and won't make a dent on voting. All the news stories about this have very dubious data and it feels like it's a non-story drummed up by the press looking for an angle. After all, house prices in cities are not dropping by any means, so there is no measurable exodus.

[steviewevie]

 

[steviewevie]

30 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

The boundary changes come from before all the changes in population and demographics from COVID and the whole WFH thing. As the middle-class Labour voters start moving en masse out of the cities and into the surrounding countryside I think we're in for some big changes next election.

No idea how it'll shake out but any projection based on the location of the population in 2019 really won't tell us much.

also...lefty recent graduates can't afford to buy a house in london so are moving elsewhere and voting labour in blue wall areas.

[DeanoL]

5 minutes ago, maelzoid said:

The number of people moving due to COVID and/or WFH is minuscule and won't make a dent on voting. All the news stories about this have very dubious data and it feels like it's a non-story drummed up by the press looking for an angle. After all, house prices in cities are not dropping by any means, so there is no measurable exodus.

The next election is four years away. If we had it now for sure the numbers are too low, but we'll see some major demographic shifts over those next four years - most people right now are still waiting to hear what the WFH / office arrangements will be at their jobs long term.

[Ozanne]

45 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

The next election is four years away. If we had it now for sure the numbers are too low, but we'll see some major demographic shifts over those next four years - most people right now are still waiting to hear what the WFH / office arrangements will be at their jobs long term.

Sorry to be pedantic but it’s just under 3 years away and Johnson is looking to repeal the Fixed Term Parliament Act so he could call one much earlier. 

[eFestivals]

27 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Sorry to be pedantic but it’s just under 3 years away and Johnson is looking to repeal the Fixed Term Parliament Act so he could call one much earlier. 

Johnson has the votes to get an early election without repealing the FTPA

[topmarksbri]

On 6/7/2021 at 7:28 PM, Ozanne said:

 

 

I know it's from a low starting point but why Labour are +2 having done basically nothing of note I have no idea. Public are baffling. 

[steviewevie]

3 minutes ago, topmarksbri said:

I know it's from a low starting point but why Labour are +2 having done basically nothing of note I have no idea. Public are baffling. 

The polls are jumping round a bit...and still at this point we are in a weird place, vaccines, end of lockdown etc etc. So, who knows.

[squirrelarmy]

11 minutes ago, topmarksbri said:

I know it's from a low starting point but why Labour are +2 having done basically nothing of note I have no idea. Public are baffling. 

No news is good news. Only negative reports about Labour seem to get published recently. 

[maelzoid]

31 minutes ago, topmarksbri said:

I know it's from a low starting point but why Labour are +2 having done basically nothing of note I have no idea. Public are baffling. 

I expect there is some variation just from the sample they take. If you ask two sets of 1000 people this question on the same day, I would anticipate some variation to crop up in the figures.

[DeanoL]

3 hours ago, Ozanne said:

Sorry to be pedantic but it’s just under 3 years away and Johnson is looking to repeal the Fixed Term Parliament Act so he could call one much earlier. 

He should - it's his best shot. I don't think he will though - I don't think he'll even fight the next election.

[Ozanne]

14 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

He should - it's his best shot. I don't think he will though - I don't think he'll even fight the next election.

I don’t think he will either, he’ll be forced out by his own MPs after a scandal. 

[steviewevie]

11 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

I don’t think he will either, he’ll be forced out by his own MPs after a scandal. 

Nah, he wants to be a PM for a long time I reckon...and at moment his MPs are mostly behind him as they know he's a winner. This could of course change if he fucks something up big time.

[maelzoid]

11 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

I don’t think he will either, he’ll be forced out by his own MPs after a scandal. 

One wonders what kind of scandal could do this. 

I mean, killing tens of thousands of people due to hubris and ignorance is already pretty bad, but his supporters just want more of him.

[Ozanne]

Just now, maelzoid said:

One wonders what kind of scandal could do this. 

I mean, killing tens of thousands of people due to hubris and ignorance is already pretty bad, but his supporters just want more of him.

haha there is that, Teflon Johnson does get away with everything. I feel if the Cummings have given evidence to the 'left the bodies pile high' comment then that could do it. He doesn't need to get massively unpopular with public just lose the lead in the polls and Tory MPs will get nervous again.

[eFestivals]

2 hours ago, steviewevie said:

The polls are jumping round a bit...and still at this point we are in a weird place, vaccines, end of lockdown etc etc. So, who knows.

watch spaffers polling tumble if we dont unlock on 21st june

[eFestivals]

On 6/8/2021 at 2:55 PM, mattiloy said:

Perhaps, a years a long time in politics.

The economic recovery is not certain. There are a lot of strange effects going on at once both domestically and in the wider world. Uncharted territory really. My gut feeling is that a lot of growth stocks are overvalued at the moment and so a lot of small investors are quite heavily exposed to inflation, meanwhile the housing market has had a big bubble owing to that same boom in investments/savings (which since interest has been so low has also largely taken the form of investments in financial assets). So depending on the size of a big consumption boom (ie if its sharp enough to be a ’shock’) coupled with higher inflation could certainly have adverse effects on small investors and the housing market. A downturn in the housing market always has negative effects on the wider economy.

But lets see anyway!

The only people keen on Rachel reeves are the people doing their best to have labour lose. Why not the magic grandpa again and why should starmer quit before he's had the chance to call losing a victory.to make voters think a bit extra that labour have lost touch with reality.

[Zoo Music Girl]

14 hours ago, steviewevie said:

Nah, he wants to be a PM for a long time I reckon...and at moment his MPs are mostly behind him as they know he's a winner. This could of course change if he fucks something up big time.

Ah fuck I just remembered our bet...

[philipsteak]

15 hours ago, eFestivals said:

watch spaffers polling tumble if we dont unlock on 21st june

Starmer will probably get the blame for that somehow 

[eFestivals]

48 minutes ago, philipsteak said:

Starmer will probably get the blame for that somehow 

Spaffer is very good at turning things on its head Teresa May is now a left winger.

[mattiloy]

Wow.

[topmarksbri]

Scotland players not taking the knee is a big yikes. Will look awful when they, a predominantly white team, play England. 

[topmarksbri]

23 minutes ago, mattiloy said:

Wow.

That whole account is basically Confirmation Bias - The Twitter Account