news & politics:discussion

[Crazyfool01]

Just now, Barry Fish said:

Is it the Gov or Johnson ?   I think its more Johnson to be honest.

I think its both ... we will see 

[steviewevie]

1 minute ago, Barry Fish said:

Is it the Gov or Johnson ?   I think its more Johnson to be honest.

probably depends where. I think polling worse for Johnson is traditional tory places like N Shropshire, not so much in red wall seats.

[Cherry Tree]

Boris Johnson is going to contact Neil, he quite likes the idea that everything that happened between the 31st October and today just disappeared.

[Crazyfool01]

Just now, Cherry Tree said:

Boris Johnson is going to contact Neil, he quite likes the idea that everything that happened between the 31st October and today just disappeared.

Superb 🙂 

[steviewevie]

It's like this brexit hero Frost resigning thing...he's saying doesn't like the direction of travel...tax rises and state spending, net zero, covid restrictions, NI protocol etc. But is that where the majority of the country are? I expect many who voted for brexit, especially those red wall voters, want more state spending on stuff, and not really that bothered about NI and ECJ and all that. I think sometimes Johnson more in tune with the country than the rest of the tory party..problem is he's a dodgy privileged fucker too.

[steviewevie]

5 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

I think all this party stuff has eaten into the red wall tory voters and the love affair is over.  Going off what I am reading around the net.

if that's the case then surely it's over for Johnson.

[Ozanne]

10 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

I think all this party stuff has eaten into the red wall tory voters and the love affair is over.  Going off what I am reading around the net.

Interestingly it’s not only the red wall, these report shows Labour making strong headway into Tory seats from elsewhere round the country.

 

[steviewevie]

2 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

Yeah but what happens when Tories change leader ?   No way this holds.

Inflation etc.

[steviewevie]

2 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

Yeah but what happens when Tories change leader ?   No way this holds.

actually I'm sure whoever it is will enjoy some sort of honeymoon period...but they might not be able to reach those parts other Tories can't like Bojo.

[steviewevie]

2 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

Current inflation is being driven by international events (gas prices mostly) so unlikely to feature as a decent attack point.  Plus I doubt Labour is back to being trusted on the economy. 

not sure it matters where it's coming from. If people feel poorer they will get fucked off and vote for change.

[Ozanne]

5 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

Yeah but what happens when Tories change leader ?   No way this holds.

Historically a new leader will bring about a boost in the polls so it depends on how that new leader then does. Bear in mind that Johnson is unique for the Tories as he reaches parts of the electorate that others can’t. 

Edited December 20, 2021 by Ozanne

[steviewevie]

7 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Interestingly it’s not only the red wall, these report shows Labour making strong headway into Tory seats from elsewhere round the country.

 

also...the lib dems are back!

That will worry the tories.

[steviewevie]

17 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

Yeah I agree to an extent...  but the Tories don't need to hold the red wall to win an election (they won't hold onto it) and they don't have to try very hard to beat Labour in traditional Tory seats and the vast majority of swing seats.  Lib Dems might hurt them a bit mind.

Someone like Liz or Dishy will get the tory blood pumping enough to see off Starmer. 

Sunak will be chancellor through some tricky times (unless Johnson is kicked out very soon) and Truss is going to give in to the EU on NI like the lefty remainer that she is....not sure there's much tory blood to be pumped.

Things definitely looking better for labour at moment, but I'm sure something will come along to fuck it all up for them soon enough.

[steviewevie]

[Ommadawn]

Poor Ozanne. Best few weeks of his life and nowhere to post about it 🙂

[fatyeti24]

17 hours ago, steviewevie said:

Boris Johnson still PM by next spring?

BET NOW!

He's a dead man walking isn't he?  At some level the decision has been made, it's just down to the timing now.  For the time being he's going to have to be a bullet sponge, soaking up Omicron, Brexit, inflation and the seemingly endless revelations about his conduct, professional and otherwise.

Gone by summer, new person in place by September and conference.

And I'll take that, and will enjoy enormously watching the fucker squirm and suffer.

[steviewevie]

28 minutes ago, fatyeti24 said:

He's a dead man walking isn't he?  At some level the decision has been made, it's just down to the timing now.  For the time being he's going to have to be a bullet sponge, soaking up Omicron, Brexit, inflation and the seemingly endless revelations about his conduct, professional and otherwise.

Gone by summer, new person in place by September and conference.

And I'll take that, and will enjoy enormously watching the fucker squirm and suffer.

I don't know, you can never bet against Boris.

Actually recently he has looked pretty fucked, so he may be happy to just quit and makes loads of money writing and talking shite.

[Ozanne]

He most definitely is done.

[maelzoid]

I think we'll have BoJo for a while yet.

Getting ousted after less than 3 years is spectacularly bad, and I think he'll want to hold out longer for the sake of his reputation.

Who would want to step into the breach now, with so much shit on the horizon? The Covid situation is getting worse, Brexit doesn't look like it's improving any time soon, inflation is ramping up, and there's likely to be a stock market crash early next year.

I suspect that any leadership challenger would probably like to hold back at least until  the latter half of next year, and Boris will arrogantly think he can fix all the problems in the meantime.

[maelzoid]

I was pleased to see the Tories take a drubbing in the N. Shropshire by, but Labour's performance was shocking too. Going from 12,000 votes down to less than 4,000 in 2 years is dreadful.

[steviewevie]

3 minutes ago, maelzoid said:

I was pleased to see the Tories take a drubbing in the N. Shropshire by, but Labour's performance was shocking too. Going from 12,000 votes down to less than 4,000 in 2 years is dreadful.

I think a lot of that labour vote went to lib dem...anti-tory vote.

If they're going to get the tories out then there will have to be more of this.

[Ozanne]

3 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

I think a lot of that labour vote went to lib dem...anti-tory vote.

If they're going to get the tories out then there will have to be more of this.

Yes it was clearly a tactical vote to give the Tories a drubbing, there was a clear message that the LD was the only way to get the Tories out in that seat and the voters duly obliged.

[maelzoid]

Can anyone explain why the tactical voters gathered behind the LibDems, not Labour, who were the clear 2nd placers in '19?

[Ozanne]

Because the demographics in the seat are more likely to vote LD. The LDs being the central party along with being closer to the Tories politically make those people feel more comfortable voting LD instead of Labour. It’s a staunchly Tory area so getting enough people to vote Labour wasn’t a viable option. 

[steviewevie]

12 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Because the demographics in the seat are more likely to vote LD. The LDs being the central party along with being closer to the Tories politically make those people feel more comfortable voting LD instead of Labour. It’s a staunchly Tory area so getting enough people to vote Labour wasn’t a viable option. 

wasn't there some agreement to let labour have a go at Bexley/Sidcup, and lib dems a go at N Shropshire.

I think a lot in N Shropshire labour were not happy about giving way to Lib Dems because of labour getting 2nd last time, and there was a some bitterness between labour and libdem towards the end of campaigning...just shows any alliance not going to be that easy.