news & politics:discussion

[strummer77]

22 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

I thought you were one of those who has taken great delight in calling starmer shit he might be shit but he's the best Labour has to offer right now.

No delight taken, but Starmer is absolutely awful and both the polls and anecdotal evidence suggests most people agree. It might change but there is absolutely nothing to get behind.

Labour will probably lose the by election of a seat they held in 2019 and considering how awful the last year had been for most people, that is by any standards a poor show. 

Grim stuff. 

[steviewevie]

1 minute ago, strummer77 said:

No delight taken, but Starmer is absolutely awful and both the polls and anecdotal evidence suggests most people agree. It might change but there is absolutely nothing to get behind.

Labour will probably lose the by election of a seat they held in 2019 and considering how awful the last year had been for most people, that is by any standards a poor show. 

Grim stuff. 

but on the other hand we have a very successful vaccine rollout and it's looking like we have defeated covid in this country....and in last byelection brexit party got a lot of votes and now they all seemed to be going tory. So...it's not just that starmer is total shit...but yeah, he hasn't been great..but at same time no one cares what starmer thinks, they just want to see what bojo says next about releasing lockdown.

[steviewevie]

Poll fo polls

https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/

[fraybentos1]

Tomorrow's Scottish parliament election really will be interesting and the polls are all over the place. Within the last day one poll shows SNP constituency support at 52% and another shows it to be 42%. That's the difference between a solid majority and them losing seats and having a pretty disastrous result.

I don't think I have ever seen polling be that far apart for an election just days before. It really is all up in the air.

[eFestivals]

13 minutes ago, strummer77 said:

No delight taken, but Starmer is absolutely awful and both the polls and anecdotal evidence suggests most people agree. It might change but there is absolutely nothing to get behind.

Labour will probably lose the by election of a seat they held in 2019 and considering how awful the last year had been for most people, that is by any standards a poor show. 

Grim stuff. 

The only thing Labour could say about the awful last year is we would have mailed vivid away which would fool no be covid is what it is and anyone would struggle to counter it.

And spaffer can point at the vaccine success and say  I did that.

[eFestivals]

2 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

Tomorrow's Scottish parliament election really will be interesting and the polls are all over the place. Within the last day one poll shows SNP constituency support at 52% and another shows it to be 42%. That's the difference between a solid majority and them losing seats and having a pretty disastrous result.

I don't think I have ever seen polling be that far apart for an election just days before. It really is all up in the air.

Scotland doesn want Indy it wants sex pests.

[SwedgeAntilles]

3 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

Scotland doesn want Indy it wants sex pests.

Your patter really is honking. 

[fraybentos1]

6 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

Scotland doesn want Indy it wants sex pests.

 

2 minutes ago, SwedgeAntilles said:

Your patter really is honking. 

Yeah I'm really not sure who this helps. Was trying to start a legitimate convo about what might happen in tomorrow's election. 

[SwedgeAntilles]

9 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

Tomorrow's Scottish parliament election really will be interesting and the polls are all over the place. Within the last day one poll shows SNP constituency support at 52% and another shows it to be 42%. That's the difference between a solid majority and them losing seats and having a pretty disastrous result.

I don't think I have ever seen polling be that far apart for an election just days before. It really is all up in the air.

I think that 42% one is an outlier. Just feels like it's too different from the rest. I'm thinking the SNP will get close to an overall majority but will miss out by a seat or two. Strong showing for the Greens will shore up the pro-indy majority. Much as predicted. 

[steviewevie]

3 minutes ago, SwedgeAntilles said:

I think that 42% one is an outlier. Just feels like it's too different from the rest. I'm thinking the SNP will get close to an overall majority but will miss out by a seat or two. Strong showing for the Greens will shore up the pro-indy majority. Much as predicted. 

If SNP don't get that majority I think any chance of a referendum is much reduced...even if majority is still pro-indy.

[fraybentos1]

1 minute ago, SwedgeAntilles said:

I think that 42% one is an outlier. Just feels like it's too different from the rest. I'm thinking the SNP will get close to an overall majority but will miss out by a seat or two. Strong showing for the Greens will shore up the pro-indy majority. Much as predicted. 

One thing I am thinking about is that last election, pollsters over estimated the SNP vote by about 4/5 % so maybe the 'outlier' poll is factoring in expected turnout more. Time will tell.

One thing I am convinced of is that the Greens won't match most of their polling. I cannot see them getting double figures seats. I would guess 8 for the Greens. 

Would like to see Labour gain seats but despite people quite liking Sarwar, this hasn't seemed to translate into many more votes/ seats.

[SwedgeAntilles]

6 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

If SNP don't get that majority I think any chance of a referendum is much reduced...even if majority is still pro-indy.

It potentially kicks it down the can from a Tory POV, but the pro-indy majority is acknowledged north or the border so I don't think it'll quieten down the calls for it from there. I think it'll depend whether the PM (whoever that is) decides to stick or twist. I think Gove thinks he could win, so if he takes over from Johnson they could allow it. I have a feeling Johnson isn't interested in the fight.

9 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

One thing I am thinking about is that last election, pollsters over estimated the SNP vote by about 4/5 % so maybe the 'outlier' poll is factoring in expected turnout more. Time will tell.

One thing I am convinced of is that the Greens won't match most of their polling. I cannot see them getting double figures seats. I would guess 8 for the Greens. 

Would like to see Labour gain seats but despite people quite liking Sarwar, this hasn't seemed to translate into many more votes/ seats.

The Labour one is a weird one, Sarwar personally seems to be doing well, but it's not translating into votes, maybe a case of the election coming a bit too soon for him? I'm sure there's plenty of unionists who are more at home voting Labour who have been lending their votes to the Tories under Davidson. 

[DeanoL]

1 hour ago, eFestivals said:

If they make gains then that's an improvement on Corbyn who fought these same seats did shit and called it a victory.

And if Starmer loses Hartlepool, a seat Corbyn won twice, will you make excuses for him like we did for Corbyn or will you turn your ire on him?

[Ozanne]

27 minutes ago, SwedgeAntilles said:

I think that 42% one is an outlier. Just feels like it's too different from the rest. I'm thinking the SNP will get close to an overall majority but will miss out by a seat or two. Strong showing for the Greens will shore up the pro-indy majority. Much as predicted. 

I think the SNP will just get a majority however I think they will kick the can down the road on Indyref2.

[fraybentos1]

I'll actually do a wee final prediction of seats:

SNP-60
CON-30
LAB-25
LIB DEM-6
GREEN-8

I think the snp will get possibly 0 seats regionally and I also think Labour will keep all their constituency seats. Tories will keep their support in the south and the north east and hold Edinburgh Central. Lib Dems will win all 4 constituencies they have now and gain Caithness, Sutherland & Ross from the SNP. Greens will increase their vote share but quite as much as they hope.

[Ozanne]

 

[SwedgeAntilles]

 

Good thread this.

[Ozanne]

4 minutes ago, SwedgeAntilles said:

 

Good thread this.

It’s interesting how they all bar one suggest an SNP majority. I can see that happening although it’ll be very tight. 

[fraybentos1]

9 minutes ago, SwedgeAntilles said:

 

Good thread this.

Ballot box Scotland is amazing. The content is very good 

[Ozanne]

 

[fraybentos1]

The polls all pointed towards a majority in 2016 too. All comes down to who actually goes through with their intention tomorrow 

[Ozanne]

Election 2021: Can I vote without my polling card? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-56984793
 

Helpful guide in case anyone has questions about voting tomorrow. 

[eFestivals]

1 hour ago, fraybentos1 said:

 

Yeah I'm really not sure who this helps. Was trying to start a legitimate convo about what might happen in tomorrow's election. 

A mandate for sex pestery I think that's a more explicit offering than an Indyref.

Edited May 5, 2021 by eFestivals

[steviewevie]

Guardian podcast about Hartlepool byelection. Worth a listen.

https://www.theguardian.com/news/audio/2021/may/05/the-fight-for-hartlepool-podcast

[eFestivals]

1 hour ago, DeanoL said:

And if Starmer loses Hartlepool, a seat Corbyn won twice, will you make excuses for him like we did for Corbyn or will you turn your ire on him?

No to all elections are the same. Did Corbyn win in the middle of a oandemic