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Will the 2021 festival go ahead?


JoeyT
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Glastonbury 2021   

434 members have voted

  1. 1. Following the Oxford Vaccine news will it go ahead?

    • Yes - I 100% believe
      43
    • Yes - I think so but not close to 100%. Need to see how the roll out progresses.
      158
    • Maybe - I'm 50/50
      87
    • Unlikely - Even with the latest news I think it's unlikely to take place
      79
    • No - The vaccine news is great but I can't see 200k people being allowed at Worthy Farm in June.
      67


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On 1/5/2021 at 12:09 PM, Lycra said:

There is actually a simple way we could have Glasto this year.......Ban all under 50s from attending + UK residents only. Surely government cannot fuck up delivering it's jabs!

Cheers. I turn 50 three days after Glasto finishes.

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4 minutes ago, kalifire said:

I can't imagine they'd be telling anyone to prepare to go ahead with things are as they are right now.

Well quite. But still, nice change from one of Nal's hastily (though very well) photoshopped Tweets/headlines.

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44 minutes ago, Gnomicide said:

I've just been told by someone I don't know, that someone they don't know who does lighting at Glastonbury, has been told to prepare.

Conclusive.

Sounds like the guy in Glastonbury who owns the lighting shop just been told by his wife she's ovulating. 

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18 hours ago, Leyrulion said:

Issue here is this new variant will likely take much longer to control. The same lockdown methods as March have been predicted would see R "only" go down to 0.9, In April the same methods reduced R to 0.6.

I'm June/July we had an average of less than 1,000 cases a day. To get to the same level from our current 7 day average at an R of 0.9 would take 37 generations of the virus or about 6 1/2 months. So even though lockdown started earlier cases may not reach a similar low level until July.

It's unknown what effect vaccines will have on R. Hopefully a lot as even small changes make a big difference. An R of 0.8 would only take 17 generations, or 10 weeks to reach the same level.

except it doesn't pan out like that during a lockdown. 

R will not be that high, because the isolation measures mean that an infected person quickly runs out of new people to infect.

(yes, I know not everyone is isolated)

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51 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

DCMS have written to Sunak asking him to cough up for insurance.

https://www.recordoftheday.com/news-and-press/mps-urge-chancellor-to-extend-safety-net-to-save-summer-festivals

I don't expect it to work, but you never know I guess. Of course I hope it does.

Am hopeful it will to. We will see.

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1 hour ago, eFestivals said:

DCMS have written to Sunak asking him to cough up for insurance.

https://www.recordoftheday.com/news-and-press/mps-urge-chancellor-to-extend-safety-net-to-save-summer-festivals

I don't expect it to work, but you never know I guess. Of course I hope it does.

Fair play to them, they can only ask. Point is though underwriting is always about insuring against a risk that you don't expect to happen. In that sense I can foresee government offering assistance at future date beyond which the risk of cancellation is greatly reduced. Sadly I don't think that date will encompass Glastonbury.

Insurance alone cannot save summer festivals.

Edited by Lycra
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1 minute ago, Lycra said:

Point is though underwriting is always about insuring against a risk that you don't expect to happen.

" ... to someone".  The problem here is that it's everyone or no one. That's not really insurable.

I think the best Sunak is likely to offer is offer a similar pot of money for grants as he did last year, if festivals are unable to go ahead. It's much less of a bottomless pit.

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46 minutes ago, incident said:

But it can save the companies promoting and working on them.

Thats what the furlough scheme is designed to do. Effectively mothball companies. Asking people & companies to work on projects which have no realistic prospect of happening wastes more money than simply paying them to stay home. But financial support alone will not be enough to get the industry going. In its submissions this week the industry asked for a restart date for capacity crowds and said social distancing and festivals were incompatible. Without this projects cannot be planned & artiste tours scheduled.

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1 minute ago, Lycra said:

In its submissions this week the industry asked for a restart date  ..... Without this projects cannot be planned & artiste tours scheduled.

which is why I've been saying a restart date is a better thing for the govt to give than insurance.

It doesn't need to actually be a date they give. They can state the conditions that are needed for festivals to resume, and then others can make projections for what date that might happen.

With the roll out of the vaccine (and providing nothing new is added to the mix) it should be possible to make fairly accurate projections in around a month.

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25 minutes ago, Lycra said:

Thats what the furlough scheme is designed to do. Effectively mothball companies. Asking people & companies to work on projects which have no realistic prospect of happening wastes more money than simply paying them to stay home. But financial support alone will not be enough to get the industry going. In its submissions this week the industry asked for a restart date for capacity crowds and said social distancing and festivals were incompatible. Without this projects cannot be planned & artiste tours scheduled.

How are they supposed to give a date? I support the industry, but it doesn't really do anyone good for the government to start pulling random dates out on things like this.

The pandemic has been a moving target since day one. Making stupid predictions has kind of got the country into the place it is now anyway.

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1 hour ago, eFestivals said:

and it can give them the financial confidence to keep planning for a festival which might not happen.

Surely it couldn't be a 'get out of jail free card' though?  I can't see anyone underwriting a policy that allows GFL to plough on regardless when the situation becomes clear it's not a viable proposition?

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11 minutes ago, parsonjack said:

Surely it couldn't be a 'get out of jail free card' though?  I can't see anyone underwriting a policy that allows GFL to plough on regardless when the situation becomes clear it's not a viable proposition?

I suspect (and this could be wrong) but it would be in circumstances where these kinds of events are given the green light / an indication by Government to proceed but then the situation suddenly becomes a lot worse against expectations?

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6 minutes ago, parsonjack said:

Surely it couldn't be a 'get out of jail free card' though?  I can't see anyone underwriting a policy that allows GFL to plough on regardless when the situation becomes clear it's not a viable proposition?

yup, one of the many reasons why I think insurance isn't a viable proposition.

Every possible angle and variance would have to be written into that insurance to define what and when gets a payout, and if someone managed to do that you'd probably find festivals didn't feel it gave them the cover they want.

 

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5 hours ago, eFestivals said:

except it doesn't pan out like that during a lockdown. 

R will not be that high, because the isolation measures mean that an infected person quickly runs out of new people to infect.

(yes, I know not everyone is isolated)

It didn't in the first lockdown but there are projections that R may remain high in this lockdown, indeed that this lockdown might not even be enough to reduce below 1 because of the increased transmissibility.

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1 hour ago, eFestivals said:

yup, one of the many reasons why I think insurance isn't a viable proposition.

Every possible angle and variance would have to be written into that insurance to define what and when gets a payout, and if someone managed to do that you'd probably find festivals didn't feel it gave them the cover they want.

 

Plus you have the concern on whether the festivals have been cancelled or re scheduled.

As you know in the past if an artist has had to postpone a gig , but can  reschedule it they keep the ticket money.  

That is one of the reasons AC/DC went with AXL Rose to finish their tour.

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Like in Germany I fully expect the government to provide insurance for the summer festival season which will enable planning for Glastonbury to continue. Doesn’t mean it will go ahead but it will allow the festival to reduce the risk of paying those suppliers in advance. (Do bands get and advance?)

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10 minutes ago, Colorblindjames said:

Like in Germany I fully expect the government to provide insurance for the summer festival season which will enable planning for Glastonbury to continue. Doesn’t mean it will go ahead but it will allow the festival to reduce the risk of paying those suppliers in advance. (Do bands get and advance?)

Yeah, I was wondering that. 

Do bands normally get paid part of their fee several months upfront?

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1 hour ago, xxialac said:

Yeah, I was wondering that. 

Do bands normally get paid part of their fee several months upfront?

Yup. At the very least a hefty deposit. Some bands look for more, particularly if they're coming from overseas. Their agent/touring company isn't risking the act turning up and not getting paid. 

Theres also transport costs, the rider, hotels etc. Not sure how much of this Glasto HQ cover in their contracts. Depends on the band I suppose. There are also penalties for breach of contract and so on. On both sides.

Its a legal and financial mess if one band cancels/the venue cancels, never mind something as big as Glastonbury and the amount of moving parts there.

Music festivals will be the very very very last thing to return as normal. 

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