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Will the 2021 festival go ahead?


JoeyT
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Glastonbury 2021   

434 members have voted

  1. 1. Following the Oxford Vaccine news will it go ahead?

    • Yes - I 100% believe
      43
    • Yes - I think so but not close to 100%. Need to see how the roll out progresses.
      158
    • Maybe - I'm 50/50
      87
    • Unlikely - Even with the latest news I think it's unlikely to take place
      79
    • No - The vaccine news is great but I can't see 200k people being allowed at Worthy Farm in June.
      67


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1 minute ago, Lycra said:

That's what we all would like but we're now in a different ball game. The new variant B117 is much more infectious than the SARS-CoV-2 prevalent last year and there is concern amongst experts (Neil Ferguson for example) if lockdown this time round will be enough to contain spread.

Additionally, even if we do get the infection numbers down this does not guarantee they will stay low. B117 really has changed the prognosis.

There is potentially a benefit to the variant in that as we vaccinate the most at risk of death, if we are struggling to keep it under control and 1% a week are being infected, then with vaccination herd immunity will he obtained far quicker. 

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4 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

There is potentially a benefit to the variant in that as we vaccinate the most at risk of death, if we are struggling to keep it under control and 1% a week are being infected, then with vaccination herd immunity will he obtained far quicker. 

That's one way of looking at it yes. The virus has adapted to survive and could mutate further in order to do so. The quicker we limit it's spread the better.

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9 minutes ago, discgoesmic said:

Parliament currently voting on lockdown until 31st March. Absolutely no chance if this is the case: https://www.ft.com/content/a950cf7e-03bb-4341-baaf-a964b29579b2 - but I very much hope things will be better and we'll get our summer.

"Legislation published ahead of Wednesday's debate stated that the tiering system of restrictions will now expire on March 31, instead of February 2." 

Quoted from the article, I take that as not the full nationwide lockdown until 31 March but the tier systems we have. So it's feasible regions will be put in tiers again come February after the nationwide lockdown.

Edited by cwaite123
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7 minutes ago, cwaite123 said:

"Legislation published ahead of Wednesday's debate stated that the tiering system of restrictions will now expire on March 31, instead of February 2." 

Quoted from the article, I take that as not the full nationwide lockdown until 31 March but the tier systems we have. So it's feasible regions will be put in tiers again come February after the nationwide lockdown.

Good point, from looking on Twitter people are taking it either as I did (extended lockdown) or going back to tiers. I hope your interpretation is correct!

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10 minutes ago, discgoesmic said:

Good point, from looking on Twitter people are taking it either as I did (extended lockdown) or going back to tiers. I hope your interpretation is correct!

Tier 5 is the new lockdown.

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2 hours ago, eFestivals said:

why not?

Levels of infection were well-contained last summer, and the peak & lockdown are much earlier in the year this year.

We should get infection levels down over the next 2-ish months, and then it's all about what real effects the vaccines have. 

Issue here is this new variant will likely take much longer to control. The same lockdown methods as March have been predicted would see R "only" go down to 0.9, In April the same methods reduced R to 0.6.

I'm June/July we had an average of less than 1,000 cases a day. To get to the same level from our current 7 day average at an R of 0.9 would take 37 generations of the virus or about 6 1/2 months. So even though lockdown started earlier cases may not reach a similar low level until July.

It's unknown what effect vaccines will have on R. Hopefully a lot as even small changes make a big difference. An R of 0.8 would only take 17 generations, or 10 weeks to reach the same level.

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1 hour ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

There is potentially a benefit to the variant in that as we vaccinate the most at risk of death, if we are struggling to keep it under control and 1% a week are being infected, then with vaccination herd immunity will he obtained far quicker. 

The issue is not just death - the young are getting hospitalised and surviving, but them occupying beds is a huge problem. I really do wish people would stop focussing on "it kills the old and weak, so jab them and we can all go out an play" mentality. This fucking virus is unpredictably hitting every age group and if enough young/fit get it then enough of them with get ill enough to fill the NHS and kill the cancer patients who are waiting for treatment. People are not being admitted to hospital for fun - they would get seriously ill or die if they didn't get treated. The fact that young/fit don't die isn't a solution to the whole problem.

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Article in The Spectator asking for a return of festivals to give us something to celebrate and to bring the country together. It covers all annual festive occasions but does also mention Glastonbury. Surprising reading from that well known haven of Tory journalism. 

Is this a sign that summer fun is on it’s way back.
 

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/britain-needs-a-festive-restoration/amp

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12 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

Article in The Spectator asking for a return of festivals to give us something to celebrate and to bring the country together. It covers all annual festive occasions but does also mention Glastonbury. Surprising reading from that well known haven of Tory journalism. 

Is this a sign that summer fun is on it’s way back.
 

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/britain-needs-a-festive-restoration/amp

It is not so surprising when you remember their magazine hosts some of the biggest lockdown-sceptics. 

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1 hour ago, hfuhruhurr said:

The issue is not just death - the young are getting hospitalised and surviving, but them occupying beds is a huge problem. I really do wish people would stop focussing on "it kills the old and weak, so jab them and we can all go out an play" mentality. This fucking virus is unpredictably hitting every age group and if enough young/fit get it then enough of them with get ill enough to fill the NHS and kill the cancer patients who are waiting for treatment. People are not being admitted to hospital for fun - they would get seriously ill or die if they didn't get treated. The fact that young/fit don't die isn't a solution to the whole problem.

I know a Police Officer that was hospitalised after a nasty road accident @ speed and picked up Covid whilst he was in intensive care.

He is in his late 50's so he cannot laugh Covid off like a teenager !

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27 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

Article in The Spectator asking for a return of festivals to give us something to celebrate and to bring the country together. It covers all annual festive occasions but does also mention Glastonbury. Surprising reading from that well known haven of Tory journalism. 

Is this a sign that summer fun is on it’s way back.
 

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/britain-needs-a-festive-restoration/amp

Glastonbury full of spectator readers these days....

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3 minutes ago, ivan said:

I know a Police Officer that was hospitalised after a nasty road accident @ speed and picked up Covid whilst he was in intensive care.

He is in his late 50's so he cannot laugh Covid off like a teenager !

A mate of mine, his grandmother went into hospital back in April; it was something to do with her hip, but she was reasonably healthy otherwise. She caught covid while there, and has ever since been stuck there, no visitors. She's going senile now, showing signs of dementia and all that. They're putting her on end of life care now; the virus has all but destroyed her.

 

and then there's people complaining that they dont have any freedom coz they cant go to the pub =/

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1 hour ago, hfuhruhurr said:

The issue is not just death - the young are getting hospitalised and surviving, but them occupying beds is a huge problem. I really do wish people would stop focussing on "it kills the old and weak, so jab them and we can all go out an play" mentality. This fucking virus is unpredictably hitting every age group and if enough young/fit get it then enough of them with get ill enough to fill the NHS and kill the cancer patients who are waiting for treatment. People are not being admitted to hospital for fun - they would get seriously ill or die if they didn't get treated. The fact that young/fit don't die isn't a solution to the whole problem.

Deaths and hospitalisations are directly correlated, I thought that much went without saying.

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24 minutes ago, kalifire said:

Not in the form of mass events involving 100,000+ maskless people not socially distancing, no.

This is wrong, misleading and incorrect.

 

 

Its about 250,000 maskless people not socially distancing. For the guts of a week. In 167 days time. In a small confined area with poor sanitation and poor access for medical emergencies. 

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22 minutes ago, The Nal said:

Its about 250,000 maskless people not socially distancing. For the guts of a week. In 167 days time. In a small confined area with poor sanitation and poor access for medical emergencies. 

Can’t fucking wait!!

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Edited by squirrelarmy
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2 minutes ago, Gnomicide said:

I've just been told by someone I don't know, that someone they don't know who does lighting at Glastonbury, has been told to prepare.

Conclusive.

Prepare for what?

Somebody else mentioned something about lighting the other day, as I recall.

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