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Will the 2021 festival go ahead?


JoeyT
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Glastonbury 2021   

434 members have voted

  1. 1. Following the Oxford Vaccine news will it go ahead?

    • Yes - I 100% believe
      43
    • Yes - I think so but not close to 100%. Need to see how the roll out progresses.
      158
    • Maybe - I'm 50/50
      87
    • Unlikely - Even with the latest news I think it's unlikely to take place
      79
    • No - The vaccine news is great but I can't see 200k people being allowed at Worthy Farm in June.
      67


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3 minutes ago, gooner1990 said:

Andy Pollard ( https://www.research.ox.ac.uk/Researchers/andrew-pollard-covid ) has said to a co-worker of mine that he expects social distancing and face mask wearing to go on until the end of they year....with that in mind I just cannot see how any festivals or major sporting events will be allowed to happen this summer. 

It pains me to even write that as festivals and going to football are a big part of my life, but I would rather see a full Glastonbury 2022 than some sort of half version in 2021. 

What the scientists say and what the govt allows are two different things though. (And not just this govt)

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4 minutes ago, zahidf said:

What the scientists say and what the govt allows are two different things though. (And not just this govt)

Yes I understand that, hey I want the festival on as much as the next person but I just think that June is a bit too quick for an event that can't control social distancing, seated events might be slightly different as it can be controlled but I'm not so sure on music events.

Happy to be proved wrong though. 🙂

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22 minutes ago, gooner1990 said:

Andy Pollard ( https://www.research.ox.ac.uk/Researchers/andrew-pollard-covid ) has said to a co-worker of mine that he expects social distancing and face mask wearing to go on until the end of they year.

which is different to what Witty said yesterday, who talked about reintroducing measures for next winter.

I think that Witty comment might have given away the govt's shorter-term plans, as I think it's unlikely his medical preference would be the removal of controls.

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1 minute ago, eFestivals said:

which is different to what Witty said yesterday, who talked about reintroducing measures for next winter.

I think that Witty comment might have given away the govt's shorter-term plans, as I think it's unlikely his medical preference would be the removal of controls.

I’m all for winter lockdowns if it means summer freedom. 

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7 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

which is different to what Witty said yesterday, who talked about reintroducing measures for next winter.

I think that Witty comment might have given away the govt's shorter-term plans, as I think it's unlikely his medical preference would be the removal of controls.

What do you suspect they are looking towards?  All at risk groups vaccinated and the world (or the UK at least) back to normal by the summer?

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5 minutes ago, gooner1990 said:

What do you suspect they are looking towards?  All at risk groups vaccinated and the world (or the UK at least) back to normal by the summer?

I think that's their general aim, yeah.

The risk within that for festivals, I think, is some measures remaining - where masks and social distancing are the obvious ones.

A month ago I was thinking they'd most likely go, for outdoor events if not indoor stuff. Today I'm much less confident because of the 'faster spreading' claims for the new variant.

(tho from a casual glance at the data I can't see anything to particularly suggest faster spreading)

Edited by eFestivals
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No matter how well the vaccination program goes, it's difficult to imagine everything completely normal in the summer.

Major sports have had some test runs - obviously now put on hold indefinitely - so it's reasonable to assume that would be required before the summer season of festivals. It would make sense for a trial run of one of the early smaller festivals (OK I'm still hoping for Bearded Theory in May) but of course that would be too late for Glastonbury...unless they get their cancellation insurance cover.

Perhaps our best chance is there will be a big push for other major events around the same time (The Euros, Wimbledon) to have crowds, but they'll have to be allowed to be full for festivals to go ahead. If it's announced The Euros is limited crowds the only festivals likely to happen will be some smaller ones.

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6 hours ago, Leyrulion said:

I actually think this timeline is relatively realistic. Could be earlier by a few weeks but we're only talking a couple of weeks. 

March- really seeing the effect of vaccines

March-May/June de-escalation through the tier system

June/July much more freedom (like July last year but with some gigs)

 

The issue is I cannot see even the government endorsing mass gatherings after all vulnerable groups have received only one dose. We are looking at Easter time ish for all vulnerable groups to receive one dose which allows most people around 70% ish protection *hopefully* if it lasts 12 weeks which is obviously untested etc. At this point I can see most of the country being in tier 1, rule of 6, masks indoors in public but the economy starting to revive. Heck I could even see another eat out to help out at this point.

But then it will take up to another 12 weeks to get through the cycle of providing 2nd doses so we can ensure higher and long lasting immunity in vulnerable categories. That takes us to beginning of July (5th) at the earliest point. That’s also if the government meet their vaccination targets, which I lie sceptical about. This is the first reasonable scenario where masks and social distance could be dropped, mass events to go ahead without rapid test provisions.

Therefore I just cannot see a June Glastonbury going ahead, especially as the decisions need to be made earlier than that. In terms of other festivals, i would say one day festivals can be more confident of going ahead than camping as testing provisions could be put in place if needed, whereas at camping festivals people are going in and out which means that testing isn’t a practical measure.

 

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4 minutes ago, Avalon_Fields said:

No matter how well the vaccination program goes, it's difficult to imagine everything completely normal in the summer.

why not?

Levels of infection were well-contained last summer, and the peak & lockdown are much earlier in the year this year.

We should get infection levels down over the next 2-ish months, and then it's all about what real effects the vaccines have. 

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12 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

I think that's their general aim, yeah.

The risk within that for festivals, I think, is some measures remaining - where masks and social distancing are the obvious ones.

A month ago I was thinking they'd most likely go, for outdoor events if not indoor stuff. Today I'm much less confident because of the 'faster spreading' claims for the new variant.

(tho from a casual glance at the data I can't see anything to particularly suggest faster spreading)

I reckon masks will last longer than social distancing.

Glastonbury is just a little bit too early at the moment but its not completely impossible. Let's hope the deaths go down end of this month cos of vaccinations!

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16 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

I think that's their general aim, yeah.

The risk within that for festivals, I think, is some measures remaining - where masks and social distancing are the obvious ones.

A month ago I was thinking they'd most likely go, for outdoor events if not indoor stuff. Today I'm much less confident because of the 'faster spreading' claims for the new variant.

(tho from a casual glance at the data I can't see anything to particularly suggest faster spreading)

If masks and social distancing are still a thing I don't think events as large as Glastonbury will go ahead as how on earth do you get 200,000 people to social distance, escpecially when a large majority of attendees are consuming alcohol and illegal drugs. 

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6 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

We should get infection levels down over the next 2-ish months, and then it's all about what real effects the vaccines have. 

The problem is that in order to avoid inevitable exponential growth, that "down" needs to be in double digits. That's not going to happen in 2-ish months.

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10 hours ago, squirrelarmy said:

If we wait for 0 covid cases & deaths before we party outside then we might as well all buy VR headsets and party digitally because we won’t be socialising in public again. 

 

By that same token, if we open up everything (and a large festival like Glastonbury is likely going to be the last on the list, bar maybe arena gigs and nightclubs, so it'd need to be everything) as soon as the vulnerable are vaccinated...

Then it begs the question why we didn't just isolate the vulnerable and their carers for a few months at the start of it while everyone else was left to go out and get it.

I think the reality is that we'll need to be somewhere in between 0 cases and just the vulnerable vaccinated. It'll be a phased, gradual re-opening to ensure that the NHS doesn't get overwhelmed with young and non-vulnerable people who can still end up in hospital with it. 

Not that I'd put it past this government to throw caution to the wind and just go for it and hope the NHS doesn't get overwhelmed, given, y'know, they've done it once. 

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I think they'll really, really want at least one tentpole event given the go-ahead for early summer. Not only from a PR/morale perspective ("look how well we've got this under control") but also economical – the summer economy is huge, with many ecosystems, and another year of that not functioning in the way it should is going to be an utter, utter disaster.

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7 minutes ago, jannybruck said:

I think they'll really, really want at least one tentpole event given the go-ahead for early summer. Not only from a PR/morale perspective ("look how well we've got this under control") but also economical – the summer economy is huge, with many ecosystems, and another year of that not functioning in the way it should is going to be an utter, utter disaster.

Wimbledon could be doable.

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5 minutes ago, kalifire said:

The problem is that in order to avoid inevitable exponential growth, that "down" needs to be in double digits. That's not going to happen in 2-ish months.

I think new hospitalisations will drop fairly quickly over the next 2 months, from those who actually have isolated over the xmas break (adding to the lockdown time for those families), the vaccine, and also because a herd immunity (sort of thing) will start to have an effect within the groups of people most likely to catch it (key workers), slowing its spread.

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I really don’t see why normal life can’t resume after phase one vaccinations, worst case scenario you would have to get a test done within the week leading up to it, would be some false negatives, and a few people no doubt forging a negative result but not enough to have a significant impact. 
 

if you’re that worried/ live with someone vulnerable then stay at home and give someone else your ticket. The worlds been on pause for long enough and the cost, both financial and health wise is astronomical. 

there will be a spike for at least the next few winters, but summer should be fine. 

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2 hours ago, Stokesy10 said:

Yeh this was a pretty sobering comment to read. Tragically depressing and sent me on a bit of a low for the day.

I was alarmed when I first heard this too, but having thought about it think that the message might have finally got through to Boris about not over promising too much and then missing what he had promised (maybe as a result of advice from his new press secretary Allegra Stratton). If he doesn't commit to schools going back before summer, then that gives the government wriggle room if/when they end up not going back before summer.

Given that getting kids back in schools would be one of the first measures to be relaxed, I would be shocked if they're not back in school by summer, given that last summer they were back in school by then, and that even if the government miss their vaccination targets, there will still be a large proportion of the more vulnerable population vaccinated by then, at least enough to allow us to get schools open again.

If they're not back by the summer, then we really are in the shit, and any talk of Glastonbury going ahead will be shown to be way off the mark!

 

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1 hour ago, eFestivals said:

why not?

Levels of infection were well-contained last summer, and the peak & lockdown are much earlier in the year this year.

We should get infection levels down over the next 2-ish months, and then it's all about what real effects the vaccines have. 

That’s a good point, with the March lockdown I think we eventually got down to something like 0.03% of the population infected, which is 20,000 of the population infected at any one time, compared to 1 million right now. The lockdown is starting three months earlier this time and we’re doing the vaccinating, so June could look incredibly different.

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1 hour ago, eFestivals said:

why not?

Levels of infection were well-contained last summer, and the peak & lockdown are much earlier in the year this year.

We should get infection levels down over the next 2-ish months, and then it's all about what real effects the vaccines have. 

That's what we all would like but we're now in a different ball game. The new variant B117 is much more infectious than the SARS-CoV-2 prevalent last year and there is concern amongst experts (Neil Ferguson for example) if lockdown this time round will be enough to contain spread.

Additionally, even if we do get the infection numbers down this does not guarantee they will stay low. B117 really has changed the prognosis.

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