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Will the 2021 festival go ahead?


JoeyT
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Glastonbury 2021   

434 members have voted

  1. 1. Following the Oxford Vaccine news will it go ahead?

    • Yes - I 100% believe
      43
    • Yes - I think so but not close to 100%. Need to see how the roll out progresses.
      158
    • Maybe - I'm 50/50
      87
    • Unlikely - Even with the latest news I think it's unlikely to take place
      79
    • No - The vaccine news is great but I can't see 200k people being allowed at Worthy Farm in June.
      67


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15 hours ago, Gnomicide said:

One day festival on The Pyramid ain't happening unless they want to bring back the prospect of fence jumpers again. 

The cost of putting up the super fence, parking, traffic disruption twice in one day.... nah. It's all or nothing. 

they manage quite well with the pilton party , thats in the JP field and i think its a 8000 person event 

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Just now, Barney McGrew said:

Aye, the Extravaganza's a tidy little do 'all!

yup , got tickets for that bad boy ( for next year now ) also i manage to get tix for the Pilton Party . i absolutely love the PP , its like a mini glasto ( they even open up some long drops for that authentic experience . lol ) 

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Don't know if this has been discussed on here before (sorry if it has) but we only have to really vaccinate approx. 25m people. This is based on groupings 1-9 of the priorities list. So basically everyone above 50 is vaccinated. At this point the risk is negligible. 

 

Per the BBC " It is hoped that about two million patients a week could soon be vaccinated with two vaccines now approved.".  Thats a target they would like to reach but even if 1 million people are vaccinated per week by the time the festival comes the vast majority of at risk people will be vaccinated.

 

I think the decision of whether summer being open for business is a political one, not a science based decision. The government have time and time again gone for the political decision and because of their mixed messaging and poor handling of the pandemic every measure they put in has become less and less effective as we have been teased with normalcy and then it taken away. 

 

 

 

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Just now, Big durbs said:

yup , got tickets for that bad boy ( for next year now ) also i manage to get tix for the Pilton Party . i absolutely love the PP , its like a mini glasto ( they even open up some long drops for that authentic experience . lol ) 

The Pilton Party is always awesome, only done one Extravaganza (Madness + Steve Harley) and that was awesome as well, apart from the queue for the bogs.

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4 minutes ago, aj6658 said:

Don't know if this has been discussed on here before (sorry if it has) but we only have to really vaccinate approx. 25m people. This is based on groupings 1-9 of the priorities list. So basically everyone above 50 is vaccinated. At this point the risk is negligible. 

Tbh just groups 1+2 (80+) would remove up to 58% of deaths. If you did groups 1-4 (~10 million) that'd remove up to 93% of deaths. 

Of course whilst 65+ have higher mortality you still probably have significant hospitalisation in the 30-64 group. So even when deaths come down hospital capacity will probably become the key factor.

 

But all signs positive, just depends on the speed. 

 

Also isn't it nice to be in a situation talking about WHEN deaths come down due to vaccine, not IF they will. 

 

What a fucking year.

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15 minutes ago, Leyrulion said:

Tbh just groups 1+2 (80+) would remove up to 58% of deaths. If you did groups 1-4 (~10 million) that'd remove up to 93% of deaths. 

Of course whilst 65+ have higher mortality you still probably have significant hospitalisation in the 30-64 group. So even when deaths come down hospital capacity will probably become the key factor.

 

But all signs positive, just depends on the speed. 

 

Also isn't it nice to be in a situation talking about WHEN deaths come down due to vaccine, not IF they will. 

 

What a fucking year.

There really isn't significant hospitalisation in the 30-64 group - the admissions data says it's a relatively tiny percentage, somewhere in single figures. It's also probably worth pointing out that of the ones that are being admitted a decent chunk are likely to be the extremely vulnerable and so will be included in Group 4 (and then some more in Group 6) anyway.

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35 minutes ago, Barney McGrew said:

The Pilton Party is always awesome, only done one Extravaganza (Madness + Steve Harley) and that was awesome as well, apart from the queue for the bogs.

I have done a couple of each , never fails to be awesome, it’s got the real feeling of Glasto 

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So currently 1.42 % of the population has been vaccinated as of December 27th.  That's about 50k a day meaning by the end of today we should be at about 1.7 % and at 2.16 % come January 4th with just shy of 1.5 million people vaccinated.  Thank goodness for the Oxford vaccine which will more than double (120k) that (based on the assumption they will do 500k a week).  On this pace 7.31 % of the population will be vaccinated by the end of January or 4.8 million people.  I would say we would need to have 22.4 million people (first 6 phases) vaccinated for a safe festival.  Based on this timescale this is due to be completed on 26th June 2021. 

Meant to be.  I'll let Emily know shall I?

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24 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Hang on, if it won't happen because a crowd 10 times Pilton Party is too big to be workable, then maybe - stay with me now - they don't make it so big it's unworkable?

That’s kinda what I was getting at in my post back along . I should of stated that I don’t believe it’ll be a full capacity field but simply larger number of people than PP. There’s a great deaL more chance of something along those lines than a festival next year IMO

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2 hours ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Hang on, if it won't happen because a crowd 10 times Pilton Party is too big to be workable, then maybe - stay with me now - they don't make it so big it's unworkable?

I'll try to answer this when I'm sober.

It may be some time.

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22 minutes ago, ClementsMike said:

Emily’s response to theglastothingy on Instagram looks resigned to no festival in 2021.

As in where she tweeted ‘not cancelled yet!’ ? 
This has been discussed a fair bit a few pages back, but yea I agree it doesn’t look good, definitely not a certain no though.

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6 minutes ago, ClementsMike said:

Thank you!

I don’t think that’s particularly negative (and I usually ere on the side of caution with my optimism!) To me that could read either way, sounds to me like she’s just responding enthusiastically in general.

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